Kevin Rudd Are China and the US doomed to conflict

KevinRudd:AreChinaandtheUSdoomedtoconflict?0:11G'day,myname'sKevin.I'mfromAustralia.I'mheretohelp.(Laughter)0:19Tonight,Iwanttotalkaboutataleoftwocities.OneofthosecitiesiscalledWashington,andtheotheriscalledBeijing.BecausehowthesetwocapitalsshapetheirfutureandthefutureoftheUnitedStatesandthefutureofChinadoesn'tjustaffectthosetwocountries,itaffectsallofusinways,perhaps,we'veneverthoughtof:theairwebreathe,thewaterwedrink,thefishweeat,thequalityofouroceans,thelanguageswespeakinthefuture,thejobswehave,thepoliticalsystemswechoose,and,ofcourse,thegreatquestionsofwarandpeace.1:05Youseethatbloke?He'sFrench.HisnameisNapoleon.Acoupleofhundredyearsago,hemadethisextraordinaryprojection:Chinaisasleepinglion,andwhensheawakes,theworldwillshake.Napoleongotafewthingswrong;hegotthisoneabsolutelyright.BecauseChinaistodaynotjustwokenup,ChinahasstoodupandChinaisonthemarch,andthequestionforusalliswherewillChinagoandhowdoweengagethisgiantofthe21stcentury?1:42Youstartlookingatthenumbers,theystarttoconfrontyouinabigway.It'sprojectedthatChinawillbecome,bywhichevermeasure--PPP,marketexchangerates--thelargesteconomyintheworldoverthecourseofthedecadeahead.They'realreadythelargesttradingnation,alreadythelargestexportingnation,alreadythelargestmanufacturingnation,andthey'realsothebiggestemittersofcarbonintheworld.Americacomessecond.2:10SoifChinadoesbecometheworld'slargesteconomy,thinkaboutthis:It'llbethefirsttimesincethisguywasonthethroneofEngland--GeorgeIII,notagoodfriendofNapoleon's--thatintheworldwewillhaveasthelargesteconomyanon-Englishspeakingcountry,anon-Westerncountry,anon-liberaldemocraticcountry.Andifyoudon'tthinkthat'sgoingtoaffectthewayinwhichtheworldhappensinthefuture,thenpersonally,Ithinkyou'vebeensmokingsomething,anditdoesn'tmeanyou'refromColorado.2:53Soinshort,thequestionwehavetonightis,howdoweunderstandthismega-change,whichIbelievetobethebiggestchangeforthefirsthalfofthe21stcentury?It'llaffectsomanythings.Itwillgototheabsolutecore.It'shappeningquietly.It'shappeningpersistently.It'shappeninginsomesensesundertheradar,asweareallpreoccupiedwithwhat'sgoinginUkraine,what'sgoingonintheMiddleEast,what'sgoingonwithISIS,what'sgoingonwithISIL,what'shappeningwiththefutureofoureconomies.Thisisaslowandquietrevolution.Andwithamega-changecomesalsoamega-challenge,andthemega-challengeisthis:Canthesetwogreatcountries,ChinaandtheUnitedStates--China,theMiddleKingdom,andtheUnitedStates,Měiguó--whichinChinese,bytheway,meansthebeautifulcountry.Thinkaboutthat--that'sthenamethatChinahasgiventhiscountryformorethanahundredyears.Whetherthesetwogreatcivilizations,thesetwogreatcountries,caninfactcarveoutacommonfutureforthemselvesandfortheworld?Inshort,canwecarveoutafuturewhichispeacefulandmutuallyprosperous,orarewelookingatagreatchallengeofwarorpeace?AndIhave15minutestoworkthroughwarorpeace,whichisalittlelesstimethantheygavethisguytowriteabookcalledWarandPeace.4:37Peopleaskme,whyisitthatakidgrowingupinruralAustraliagotinterestedinlearningChinese?Well,therearetworeasonsforthat.Here'sthefirstofthem.That'sBetsythecow.Now,BetsythecowwasoneofaherdofdairycattlethatIgrewupwithonafarminruralAustralia.Seethosehandsthere?Thesearenotbuiltforfarming.Soveryearlyon,Idiscoveredthatinfact,workinginafarmwasnotdesignedforme,andChinawasaverysaferemovefromanycareerinAustralianfarmlife.5:09Here'sthesecondreason.That'smymom.Anyonehereeverlistentowhattheirmomtoldthemtodo?Everyoneeverdowhattheirmomtoldthemtodo?Irarelydid,butwhatmymomsaidtomewas,oneday,shehandedmeanewspaper,aheadlinewhichsaid,herewehaveahugechange.AndthatchangeisChinaenteringtheUnitedNations.1971,Ihadjustturned14yearsofage,andshehandedmethisheadline.Andshesaid,Understandthis,learnthis,becauseit'sgoingtoaffectyourfuture.5:45Sobeingaverygoodstudentofhistory,Idecidedthatthebestthingformetodowas,infact,togooffandlearnChinese.ThegreatthingaboutlearningChineseisthatyourChineseteachergivesyouanewname.Andsotheygavemethisname:Kè,whichmeanstoovercomeortoconquer,andWén,andthat'sthecharacterforliteratureorthearts.KèWén,ConqueroroftheClassics.AnyofyouguyscalledKevin?It'samajorliftfrombeingcalledKevintobecalledConqueroroftheClassics.(Laughter)I'vebeencalledKevinallmylife.HaveyoubeencalledKevinallyourlife?WouldyouprefertobecalledConqueroroftheClassics?6:31AndsoIwentoffafterthatandjoinedtheAustralianForeignService,buthereiswherepride--beforepride,therealwayscomesafall.SothereIamintheembassyinBeijing,offtotheGreatHallofthePeoplewithourambassador,whohadaskedmetointerpretforhisfirstmeetingintheGreatHallofthePeople.AndsotherewasI.Ifyou'vebeentoaChinesemeeting,it'sagianthorseshoe.Attheheadofthehorsehoearethereallyseriouspooh-bahs,anddowntheendofthehorseshoearethenot-so-seriouspooh-bahs,thejuniorwoodchuckslikeme.Andsotheambassadorbeganwiththisinelegantphrase.Hesaid,ChinaandAustraliaarecurrentlyenjoyingarelationshipofunprecedentedcloseness.AndIthoughttomyself,Thatsoundsclumsy.Thatsoundsodd.Iwillimproveit.Notetofile:Neverdothat.Itneededtobealittlemoreelegant,alittlemoreclassical,soIrendereditasfollows.[InChinese]7:36Therewasabigpause