NOKIA最新风险管理(英文版)

HKK8/24/20191NokiaMikkoRouttiMikkoRouttiDirector,RiskManagementNokiaCorporationRiskManagementHKK8/24/20192NokiaMikkoRouttiMainThemesofPresentationscopeofpresentation:businessrisk(widely)ourphilosophyaboutriskmanagementwherewearetodayonthejourneyofERMhowtodothisinourorganisationbalancebetweenpractical,value-basedandanalytical,fact-basedthinkingwhatkindofmethodsandtoolsweuse(e.g)howdoweandotherscommunicateaboutthisHKK8/24/20193NokiaMikkoRouttiItisonethingtosetupamathematicalmodelthatappearstoexplaineverything.Butwhenwefacethestruggleofdailylife,ofconstanttrialanderror,theabiguityofthefactsaswellasthepowerofthehumanheartbeatcanobliteratethemodelinshortorder.PeterL.Bernstein:AgainsttheGods-TheRemarkablestoryofRiskHKK8/24/20194NokiaMikkoRoutti“Wearenotjustaddingalloftheseriskstogether.Wearecreatingaprobabilisticviewofhowmuchcapitalisactuallynecessary.”--RickBuy,ChiefRiskOfficer,Enron“Wereviewhowgooditcanget,wereviewhowbaditcanget,andeveryplaceinbetween.”--RickCausey,EVPandChiefAccountingOfficer,EnronHKK8/24/20195NokiaMikkoRouttiWhatdoesriskappetitemeaninpractice?Arewefocusingonopportunity?Isthereaclearviewoftheappetiteforrisk?Istherebalanceinrisksandrewards?(i.e.highrisksvslowrewards)Whereshouldmostofmanagement’seffortbedirected?AGenericBusinessRiskContinuumOpportunityUncertaintyHazardComplianceAndPreventionOperatingPerformanceStrategicInitiativesKeyQuestionstoConsider...EnvironmentHealth&safetySupplychainSoftwareProductcreationHKK8/24/20196NokiaMikkoRouttiExternallydrivenFinancialRiskSourcesHazardRiskSourcesStrategicRiskSourcesOperationalRiskSourcesCurrency/foreignexchangeInterestratesCreditCommoditypricesCounterpartiesLiquidityandcashflowInternallydrivenCustomerdemandCustomer/industrychangesCompetitivePressureIntellectualcapitalResearch&developmentMergers&AcquisitionsContractsGeneralPublicEmployeesConsumersPropertiesProductsandServicesNaturaleventsVendorsandSuppliersProcessControlsInformationsystemsRegulationsAccounting/controlsSupplychainTalentAcquisitionTalentMangementBoardCompositionRISKUNIVERSEHKK8/24/20197NokiaMikkoRoutti15©NOKIAFILENAMs.PPT/DATE/NN20011999199719951LossofReputationBusinessInterruptionFireFire2FailuretoChangePhysicalBusinessInterruptionEmployers碙iability3BusinessInterruptionProductLiabilityEmpolyeeRisksHealth&Safety4ProductLiabilityReputationEnvironmentalBusinessInterruption5ComputerCrimeGeneralLiabilitiesComputerCrimeProductLiability6GeneralLiabilityEmployeeRisksProductLiability,Tamper,BrandProtectionEnvironmental7PhysicalDamageProfessionalIndemnityOtherCrime,Fraud,TheftFlood8EmployeeRecruitment/RetentionComputerCrimeTerrorismTerrorism9D&OLiabilitiesPoliticalRiskD&OLiabilitiesProfessionalIndemnity10EmployeeAccidentsOtherCrimeProfessionalIndemnityOtherCrime,Fraud,TheftWhatarethe‘Top10’greatestrisksfacingyourorganisation?Whatarethe‘Top10’greatestrisksfacingyourorganisation?AONBiennialRiskManagementandRiskFinancingSurveyHKK8/24/20198NokiaMikkoRouttiHowdoesriskmanifestitself?–Fortune1000GroupAnalysisOnehundred(10%)oftheFortune1000companiessufferedalossofover25%ofshareholdervaluewithinonemonth2412764211111776321000510152025CostOverrunsAccountingirregularitiesManagementineffective-nessSupplyChainIssuesCompetitivePressureM&AIntegrationProblemsMis-alignedProductsCustomerPricingPressureLossofKeyCustomerSupplierProblemsR&DDelaysCustomerDemandShortfall%oftop100RegulatoryProblemsStrategicOperationalFinancialHazardForeignMacro-EconomicIssuesInterestRateFluct-uationHighInputComm-odityPriceLaw-suitsNaturalDisasters58%31%6%0%PrimaryCauseofStockDrop(#ofCompanies)Source:Compustat,MercerManagementConsultinganalysisNote:Therewerealso5stockdropsforwhichtheprimarycausecouldnotreliablybedetermined.These5stockdropsarenotdepicted.©MercerManagementConsultingHKK8/24/20199NokiaMikkoRouttiRiskManagementVision•totakesuchrisksthatwillenablecompanytoprofitablygrowthebusiness•haveathoroughunderstandingofthoserisksandresponsesrequiredforsuccess•aimistosystematicallycapitaliseon,controlandmanageriskinbusinessratherthaneliminateit.Ensurerisksareproperlyanalysed,prioritisedandmanagedwhentakingmajorbusinessdecisions.EnsurethatkeyriskshavearesponsibleownerTomanageeventsthatmayaffectcustomers,employees,thefinancialpositionofNokiaanditsbrand.ComplywithregulatoryandlegalrequirementsHKK8/24/201910NokiaMikkoRouttiDriversforincreasedriskawareness•businessneeds•stakeholderawareness•recentcrisis(Worldcom,Enron,Tycoetc)•complianceissues•Turnbull/UK•KontraG/Germany•Netherlands•Sarbanes-Oxley:USA•foodforthought:doinvestorsappreciatesystematicriskmanagement–theypenalizeyouifyoumiss!HKK8/24/201911NokiaMikkoRouttiBuildingupaRiskManagementSystemPeopleandcompetenciesProcessMethodsToolsPeopleandcompetenciesformthefoundationofriskmanagementProcesshelpsensuretheirskillsareappliedconsistentlyMethodsassurethatriskmanagementisdonewellToolsincreaseproductivity…andcansometimesdirectpeopleandprocessesHKK8/24/201912NokiaMikkoRouttiObjectivesofRiskManagementControl•Allprojectshaverisksandsomeriskswilloccur•RMisaninvestmentintothefuture:•