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WorldEconomicForumJanuary2010GlobalRisks2010AGlobalRiskNetworkReportCOMMITTEDTOIMPROVINGTHESTATEOFTHEWORLDAWorldEconomicForumReportincollaborationwithCitiMarsh&McLennanCompanies(MMC)SwissReWhartonSchoolRiskCenterZurichFinancialServicesThisworkwaspreparedbytheGlobalRiskNetworkoftheWorldEconomicForum.WorldEconomicForum91-93routedelaCapiteCH-1223Cologny/GenevaSwitzerlandTel.:[phone]Fax:[phone]E-mail:[e-mail]©2010WorldEconomicForumAllrightsreserved.Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproducedortransmittedinanyformorbyanymeans,includingphotocopyingandrecording,orbyanyinformationstorageandretrievalsystem.ISBN:92-95044-31-2978-92-95044-31-9REF:201209Theinformationinthisreport,oronwhichthisreportisbased,hasbeenobtainedfromsourcesthattheauthorsbelievetobereliableandaccurate.However,ithasnotbeenindependentlyverifiedandnorepresentationorwarranty,expressorimplied,ismadeastotheaccuracyorcompletenessofanyinformationobtainedfromthirdparties.Inaddition,thestatementsinthisreportmayprovidecurrentexpectationsoffutureeventsbasedoncertainassumptionsandincludeanystatementthatdoesnotdirectlyrelatetoahistoricalfactoracurrentfact.Thesestatementsinvolveknownandunknownrisks,uncertaintiesandotherfactorswhicharenotexhaustive.Thecompaniescontributingtothisreportoperateinacontinuallychangingenvironmentandnewrisksemergecontinually.Readersarecautionednottoplaceunduerelianceonthesestatements.Thecompaniescontributingtothisreportundertakenoobligationtopubliclyreviseorupdateanystatements,whetherasaresultofnewinformation,futureeventsorotherwiseandtheyshallinnoeventbeliableforanylossordamagearisinginconnectionwiththeuseoftheinformationinthisreport.TheWorldEconomicForumisanindependentinternationalorganizationcommittedtoimprovingthestateoftheworldbyengagingleadersinpartnershipstoshapeglobal,regionalandindustryagendas.Incorporatedasafoundationin1971,andbasedinGeneva,Switzerland,theWorldEconomicForumisimpartialandnot-for-profit;itistiedtonopolitical,partisanornationalinterests.()Global_Risks_couv_Miseenpage111.01.1011:04Page1WorldEconomicForumJanuary2010GlobalRisks2010AGlobalRiskNetworkReportCOMMITTEDTOIMPROVINGTHESTATEOFTHEWORLDAWorldEconomicForumReportincollaborationwithCitiMarsh&McLennanCompanies(MMC)SwissReWhartonSchoolRiskCenterZurichFinancialServicesThisworkwaspreparedbytheGlobalRiskNetworkoftheWorldEconomicForum.WorldEconomicForum91-93routedelaCapiteCH-1223Cologny/GenevaSwitzerlandTel.:[phone]Fax:[phone]E-mail:[e-mail]©2010WorldEconomicForumAllrightsreserved.Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproducedortransmittedinanyformorbyanymeans,includingphotocopyingandrecording,orbyanyinformationstorageandretrievalsystem.ISBN:92-95044-31-2978-92-95044-31-9REF:201209Theinformationinthisreport,oronwhichthisreportisbased,hasbeenobtainedfromsourcesthattheauthorsbelievetobereliableandaccurate.However,ithasnotbeenindependentlyverifiedandnorepresentationorwarranty,expressorimplied,ismadeastotheaccuracyorcompletenessofanyinformationobtainedfromthirdparties.Inaddition,thestatementsinthisreportmayprovidecurrentexpectationsoffutureeventsbasedoncertainassumptionsandincludeanystatementthatdoesnotdirectlyrelatetoahistoricalfactoracurrentfact.Thesestatementsinvolveknownandunknownrisks,uncertaintiesandotherfactorswhicharenotexhaustive.Thecompaniescontributingtothisreportoperateinacontinuallychangingenvironmentandnewrisksemergecontinually.Readersarecautionednottoplaceunduerelianceonthesestatements.Thecompaniescontributingtothisreportundertakenoobligationtopubliclyreviseorupdateanystatements,whetherasaresultofnewinformation,futureeventsorotherwiseandtheyshallinnoeventbeliableforanylossordamagearisinginconnectionwiththeuseoftheinformationinthisreport.TheWorldEconomicForumisanindependentinternationalorganizationcommittedtoimprovingthestateoftheworldbyengagingleadersinpartnershipstoshapeglobal,regionalandindustryagendas.Incorporatedasafoundationin1971,andbasedinGeneva,Switzerland,theWorldEconomicForumisimpartialandnot-for-profit;itistiedtonopolitical,partisanornationalinterests.()Global_Risks_couv_Miseenpage111.01.1011:04Page1Source:WorldEconomicForum2010Likelihood(%)Severity(BillionUS$)DomainEconomicsGeopoliticsEnvironmentSocietyTechnology15102010502501000IraqIraqAfghanistaninstabilityAfghanistaninstabilitySlowingChineseeconomy(6%)SlowingChineseeconomy(6%)MajorfallintheUS$MajorfallintheUS$AssetpricecollapseAssetpricecollapseRetrenchmentfromglobalization(emerging)Retrenchmentfromglobalization(emerging)Retrenchmentfromglobalization(developed)Retrenchmentfromglobalization(developed)BurdenofregulationBurdenofregulationFoodpricevolatilityFoodpricevolatilityDroughtsanddesertificationDroughtsanddesertificationWaterscarcityWaterscarcityBiodiversitylossBiodiversitylossExtremeweatherExtremeweatherInfectiousdiseaseInfectiousdiseasePandemicsPandemicsMigrationMigrationUnderinvestmentininfrastructureUnderinvestmentininfrastructureNatCat:EarthquakeNatCat:EarthquakeChronicdise