Two-childpolicy一、Background二、Advantageanddisadvantage三、Citizen'schoice四、Subsequentimplication1.BackgroundSincetheearly1970s,theChinesegovernmenthasbeenvigorouslypursuingfamilyplanning.Since1978,familyplanninghasbecomeabasicnationalpolicyofChina.Before2011,theone-childpolicycoverageofthemainlandaccountedforabout35.4%ofthetotalpopulation。194919571961197019801991thefristperiodofhigh-risethesecondthethirdlow-riseperiod阶段controlperiodThehistoryofchinesepopulationdevelopmentsteady-riseperiodNOWpopulationdilemma:thereducedoccupationoflaborforcetheincreasedtendencyofagingphenomenon人口困境:劳动人口占比降低、抚养率提高令人口红利消失,老龄化未来有加速迹象。policycontent:itisnotallowedtokeepthesecondchildifthecouplehaveburnedmorethanonechildwhentheyfirstbear.二孩政策,第一胎为多孩时,不可生第二胎Itisworthnoting二、AdventageTheimplementationofthepolicy,willhelptooptimizethepopulationstructure,increaselaborsupply,reducethepressureofpopulationaging,promotethebalanceddevelopmentofthepopulation.promotethesustained,healthyeconomicdevelopment,andbuildmoderatelyprosperoussocietyinthefirstcenturygoal.Advantagepushharmoniousatmosphereamongthewholesociety.enrichcitizen'sfamilylifedisadvantageMayresultinover-rapidpopulationgrowth.Withthesecondbaby,theburdenontheindividualfamilywillalsobecomeheavier。三、citizen'schoicemale'swillinesssismorestrongerthanfemalesincetheyhavelowriskandchid-rearingcost。夫妻中男性生育意愿高于女性,因为女性的生育成本和风险较大theoverallresponseofthepolicy-fertilitydesireisreducedwiththeincreaseofage.总体人群生育意愿随着年龄的降低呈现下降的趋势。therealityisthatthepercentageofsecondbabyrearingunder70%inthefuturefiveyearsofthosepeoplewhohavethisintention.Partofthesurveyedpeoplethinkthatchildbearingwillhaveanimpactontheirwork,orevenaseriousimpact.打算生育二孩的一孩育龄人群中,五年内计划二孩生育的比例不超过70%。部分受调查群众认为生育二孩会对自己的工作带来影响,甚至是严重的影响。bycontrast,itisjustlow-incomepopulationhavethemostwillinesstoburnthesecondchild.Andthehigh-incomegrouparenotwillingtoexperiencethesameprocesssecondly.收入最低人群生育意愿最高,收入最高人群生育意愿最低,并随着收入的提高生育意愿呈现下降趋势theyounggenerationof90sexpresstheywon'tconsiderthesecondlychildoptionally.Afterall,thecostisnoteasytoafford.anotherreasonistherdonothaveenoughenergeticandtimespendonthislaterchild.“80后”年轻人大多表示不会轻易考虑生育二孩。高额的生育成本使得父母必然放弃数量。精力不够是仅次于经济压力的第二个难题。四、Subsequentimplicationtherelativedepartmentestimatethatuniversalopenpolicywillbring3000000-5000000newburnbabyseveryyear.aging-populationirreversibleeventhispolicycanbecarriedoutsmoothly.housepricewillstillincreasewithoutpenple'scontrol.pressureofobtainingadmiredjobmayaugment.numberofstay-at-homechirdenandelderwillincreasesharply导致留守儿童和留守老人的数量激增Asmallproblem,multipliedby1.3billion,willbecomeamajorproblem;alargeamount,dividedby1.3billion,willbecomeasmallnumber.------WenJiaBao一个很小的问题,乘以13亿,都会变成一个大问题;一个很大的总量,除以13亿,都会变成一个小数目。----温家宝Thanksforyourattention