巴克莱资本88页香港房地产行业深度研究报告 英文

EQUITYRESEARCH23November2010HONGKONGPROPERTYDEVELOPERSInitiationofcoverage:BubblewrapPositiveviewonHongKongpropertydevelopers:Althoughpropertypricesarealreadyovervaluedagainstlong-termfundamentals,weexpectthemtoovershoot;lowsupply,agovernmentunwillingtodeflatehouseprices,negativerealmortgageratesandhighlevelsofequityareallsupportiveofhigherpropertyprices,inourview.Whilealleightdevelopersshouldbenefit,our1-Overweightpicks–SHKP,SinoLandandKerryProperties–reflectourpreferenceforshorter-durationlandbanksandthepre-sellingofdevelopments:ie,businessmodelsthatcapturethelate-cyclereturns,whilemanagingtherisksinherentinHongKong’svolatilepropertyprices.Propertypricemomentumremains:Despitethegovernment’srecentmeasures,negativemortgagerates,abeliefintherenewedinvestmentpotentialofhousingandstronghomebuyerconfidencewilllikelyallowpropertypricemomentumtorunforanother18-24months.Weforecastresidentialpriceswillincrease10-15%in2011and10-15%in2012:today’sresidentialmarketismorecomparableto1994/95thanthepeakcycleyearsof1996/97,inourview.Looktocapturelate-cyclereturns:Whilerisingpropertypricesarepositiveforalleightdevelopers,ourpreferenceisforSHKP,SinoLandandKerry,companiesfocusedonpre-sales,withshorter-durationlandbanksandafocusonthecash-richupperrungsofthehousingladdertocapturethereturnsandmanagetheinherentrisksofthisstageofthecycle.Our3-UnderweightratingonHangLungProperties(HLP)reflectsthehighexpectationspricedintothestockandthatinvestorshavelargelyignoredthepotentiallandappreciationtax(LAT)liabilitiesofitscommercialpropertiesinChina.USandChinainterest-raterisks:Inthenearterm,higherinterestratesinChina,discouraginginvestmentflowsandnegativelyimpactingconfidence,remainakeyrisk.Yet,thelargestrisk,inourview,remainsUSinterestrates,especiallygiventheincreasedmortgageborrowingbyhomebuyers.Webelievethisinterestratelinkandinvestorsentimentwillcontinuetotiedevelopers’stockpricestoUS-dollarmovements.Figure1:HongKongpropertydevelopers’valuationtable(HK$)RatingPricePricetargetPotentialup/downsideSinoLand(83HK)1-OW15.4020.0030%SHKP(16HK)1-OW130.10162.0925%KerryProperties(683HK)1-OW40.5048.6320%CheungKong(1HK)2-EW116.70137.9318%HendersonLandDev.(12HK)2-EW55.4562.7513%NewWorldDev.(17HK)3-UW15.2016.8411%HangLungGroup(10HK)3-UW49.0548.72-1%HangLungProperties(101HK)3-UW35.8034.27-4%Note:Pricingasof22November2010Source:BarclaysCapitalestimatesBarclaysCapitaldoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ThisresearchreporthasbeenpreparedinwholeorinpartbyresearchanalystsbasedoutsidetheUSwhoarenotregistered/qualifiedasresearchanalystswithFINRA.PLEASESEEANALYST(S)CERTIFICATION(S)ANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESBEGINNINGONPAGE84.INITIATINGCOVERAGEHongKongPropertyDevelopers1-POSITIVEfromN/AForafulllistofourratings,pricetargetsandearningsinthisreport,pleaseseetableonpage2Ho[e-mail],[e-mail],[e-mail],HongKongGuidetotheBarclaysCapitalratingsystemOurcoverageanalystsusearelativeratingsysteminwhichtheyratestocksas1-Overweight,2-EqualWeightor3-Underweightrelativetoothercompaniescoveredbytheanalystorateamofanalyststhataredeemedtobeinthesameindustrysector(the“sectorcoverageuniverse”).Inadditiontothestockrating,weprovidesectorviewswhichratetheoutlookforthesectorcoverageuniverseas1-Positive,2-Neutralor3-Negative.(Forafullexplanationofourratingsystemseepage84ofthisreport.)BarclaysCapital|HongKongPropertyDevelopers23November20102SummaryofourRatings,PriceTargetsandEarningsEstimatesinthisReportCompanyRatingPricePriceTargetEPSFY1(E)EPSFY2(E)OldNew22-Nov-10OldNew%ChgOldNew%ChgOldNew%ChgHongKongPropertyDevelopersN/A1-PosCheungKong(Holdings)Ltd.(1HK/0001.HK)N/A2-EW116.70N/A137.93-N/A8.53-N/A9.34-HangLungGroupLtd.(10HK/0010.HK)N/A3-UW49.05N/A48.72-N/A3.23-N/A2.53-HangLungPropertiesLtd.(101HK/0101.HK)N/A3-UW35.80N/A34.27-N/A1.38-N/A1.41-HendersonLandDevelopmentCo.,Ltd.(12HK/0012.HK)N/A2-EW55.45N/A62.75-N/A2.42-N/A2.87-KerryPropertiesLtd.(683HK/0683.HK)N/A1-OW40.50N/A48.63-N/A2.25-N/A3.06-NewWorldDevelopmentCo.,Ltd.(17HK/0017.HK)N/A3-UW15.20N/A16.84-N/A1.40-N/A1.54-SinoLandCo.,Ltd.(83HK/0083.HK)N/A1-OW15.40N/A20.00-N/A0.97-N/A1.11-SunHungKaiPropertiesLtd.(16HK/0016.HK)N/A1-OW130.10N/A162.09-N/A5.88-N/A7.48-Source:BarclaysCapitalSharepricesandtargetpricesareshownintheprimarylistingcurrencyandEPSestimatesareshowninthereportingcurrency.FY1(E):CurrentfiscalyearestimatesbyBarclaysCapital.FY2(E):NextfiscalyearestimatesbyBarclaysCapital.StockRating:1-OW:1-Overweight2-EW:2-EqualWeight3-UW:3-UnderweightRS:RS-RatingSuspendedSectorView:1-Pos:1-Positive2-Neu:2-Neutral3-Neg:3-NegativeBarclaysCapital|HongKongPropertyDevelopers23November20103INVESTMENTSUMMARYWeinitiatecoverageoftheHongKongpropertydev