摩根公司的公司估值培训资料(英文)

APRIL2010INTRODUCTIONTOVALUATIONSTRICTLYPRIVATEANDCONFIDENTIALPresentedbyTristanFitzgeraldTransactionmultiplesTradingmultiplesIntroductionDiscountedcashflow(“DCF”)Overviewofthesession1INTRODUCTIONTOVALUATIONWhatdoestheterm“value”mean?1
TheOxfordDictionarydefinition
“thematerialormonetaryworthofathing;theamountatwhichitmaybeestimatedintermsofsomemediumofexchangeorotherstandardofalikeinnature”
Itisimportanttonotethatthereisnogeneralstatutorydefinitionofvalue
Valuationisanart,notascience2
Inpractice,werelyheavilyonexperienceandjudgement1Extractstakenfrom‘TheValuationofBusiness,SharesandOtherEquity’;WayneLonergan2GoldCoastSelectionTrustv.Humphrey;19482INTRODUCTIONTOVALUATIONWhyvaluationisimportant?AcquisitionsHowmuchshouldwepaytobuythecompany?DivestituresHowmuchshouldwesellourcompany/divisionfor?FairnessopinionsIsthepriceofferedforourcompany/divisionfair(fromafinancialpointofview)?PublicequityofferingsForhowmuchshouldwesellourcompany/divisioninthepublicmarket?DebtofferingsWhatistheunderlyingvalueofthebusiness/assetsagainstwhichdebtisbeingissued?NewbusinesspresentationsVariousapplicationsResearchShouldourclientsbuy,sellorholdpositionsinagivensecurity?HostiledefenseIsourcompanyundervalued/vulnerabletoaraiderValuation3INTRODUCTIONTOVALUATIONJ.P.MorganusesanumberofvaluationmethodologiesValuationmethodologiesPubliclytradedcomparablecompaniesanalysis
“PublicMarketValuation”
Valuebasedonmarkettradingmultiplesofcomparablecompanies
Appliedusinghistoricalandprospectivemultiples
DoesnotincludeacontrolpremiumComparabletransactionsanalysis
“PrivateMarketValuation”
Valuebasedonmultiplespaidforcomparablecompaniesinsaletransactions
IncludescontrolpremiumDiscountedcashflowanalysis
“Intrinsic”valueofbusiness
Presentvalueofprojectedfreecashflows
Incorporatesbothshort-termandlong-termexpectedperformance
RiskincashflowsandcapitalstructurecapturedindiscountrateLeveragedbuyout/recapanalysis
Valuetoafinancial/LBObuyer
ValuebasedondebtrepaymentandreturnonequityinvestmentOther
Liquidationanalysis
Break-upanalysis
Historicaltradingperformance
ExpectedIPOvaluation
Discountedfutureshareprice
EPSimpact
Dividenddiscountmodel4INTRODUCTIONTOVALUATIONThefinalrecommendedvaluationisatriangulationofeachofthemethodologies1.DiscountedcashflowUtilisesdatafromM&Atransactionsinvolvingsimilarcompanies.UtilisesdatafromM&Atransactionsinvolvingsimilarcompanies.Analysesthepresentvalueofacompany'sfreecashflow.Analysesthepresentvalueofacompany'sfreecashflow.Utilisesmarkettradingmultiplesfrompubliclytradedcompaniestoderivevalue.Utilisesmarkettradingmultiplesfrompubliclytradedcompaniestoderivevalue.Usedtodeterminerangeofpotentialvalueforacompanybasedonmaximumleveragecapacity.Usedtodeterminerangeofpotentialvalueforacompanybasedonmaximumleveragecapacity.3.ComparableAcquisitionTransactions4.LeveragedBuyOut2.PubliclyTradedComparableCompaniesDeterminingafinalvaluationrecommendationisaprocessoftriangulationusinginsightfromeachoftherelevantvaluationmethodologiesDeterminingafinalvaluationrecommendationisaprocessoftriangulationusinginsightfromeachoftherelevantvaluationmethodologies5INTRODUCTIONTOVALUATION50%IRR(approx.)DiscountedCashFlow(basecase)ImpliedManagementEBITDAmultiples6.5x1BasedonProjectXteamestimates,whichforecastJun-09FEBITDAtobeA$33.0mm2Basedonthemanagement30-Sep-08presentationJun-09FEBITDAofA$35.5mmTransactioncomparablesImpliedAdjustedEBITDAmultiples6.3x–7.0x7.0xTradingcomparables7.6x–8.6x6.8x–7.6x7.0x–8.0x7.6x–8.3x7.0x–7.7xFirstroundbidrange6.2x–6.8x6.7x–7.3xIPOvaluation-JPMorganestimate-Vendorexpectations8.2x–9.1x7.6x–8.5x2652753002852502402302502502702502252202002503007.0x–7.5x7.6x–8.0xA$35.5mm2A$33.0m1Jun-09FEBITA:Valuationrange:A$240–$260mmMultipleofmanagement09FEBITDA:6.8x–7.3xMultipleofXteam09FEBITDA:7.3x–7.9xThevaluationsummaryisoneofthemostimportantslidesinavaluationpresentationThescienceisperformingeachvaluationcorrectly,theartisusingeachmethodtodeveloparecommendationThescienceisperformingeachvaluationcorrectly,theartisusingeachmethodtodeveloparecommendation6INTRODUCTIONTOVALUATIONTransactionmultiplesTradingmultiplesIntroductionDiscountedcashflow(“DCF”)Overviewofthesession7INTRODUCTIONTOVALUATIONDCFallowsforrigorousanalysisofvalue
DCF-mechanismusedtoestimatethevalueofanassetbydiscountingtheestimatedfuturecashflowsgeneratedbytheassetbyaratethatreflectstheriskofthecashflows
Freecashflowtothefirm(FCFF)model=presentvalueofexpectedfuturecashflows
Dividenddiscountmodel=presentvalueofexpectedfuturedividends
Forcesanunderstandingofthevaluedriversoftheasset(revenueandcost)oftheunderlyingbusiness/unit
Candividevalueintocomponents
Valueofvariousbusinesses,productlinesordivisions(“sumoftheparts”valuation)
Valueoffreecashflowsversusterminalvalue(TVcanbeveryimportant)
Contributionofvarioussynergies(e.g.costreductions,cross-selling)
Variouscasescanbeevaluated
Upside(favourable)versusdownside(unfavourable)cases
Keysensitivitiesonprice,volumes,cost,growthetc.8INTRODUCTIONTOVALUATIONDCFhasthreekeycomponents
Freecashflowtothefirmmodel
Attempttomovefromaccountingpro