业务应变能力管理之供应链风险管理

业务应变能力管理BUSINESSRESILIENCEMANAGEMENT达信2012年4月13日北京达信风险面面观研讨会1MARSHRISKCONSULTING日程全方位供应链风险咨询服务朱圣宏重点依赖关系的识别与营业中断分析陈嘉骏供应链风险审计与诊断蔡洪业务持续性管理熊耀华营业中断保险刘远全方位整合供应链风险咨询服务朱圣宏达信台湾INTEGRATIONOFFULLSPECTRUMSUPPLYCHAINRISKCONSULTINGSERVICESSamChuMarshTaiwan4MARSHRISKCONSULTING现代供应链管理实践更加精简、更加高效、也更易发生中断精益生产供应基地合理化及时上市时间低库存全球采购外包准确预测在发展中国家生产供应商管理库存降低成本托运单一供货源单一供应商•供应链中断•政治和经济风险•供应链可视性有限•降低成本•减轻管理负担•改善费用利用效率机遇风险5MARSHRISKCONSULTINGModernSupplyChainPracticesMovingleaner,moreefficientandincreasinglyvulnerabletodisruptionLeanProductionSupplyBaseRationalizationJustInTimeTime-to-marketLowInventoryGlobalSourcingOutsourcingPreciseForecastingManufactureinDevelopingCountriesVMICostCuttingConsignmentSoleSourceSupplySingleSuppliers•SupplyChainDisruptions•Political&EconomicExposures•LimitedVisibilityoverSupplyChains•CostReduction•ReleasingManagementBurdens•SpendLeverageImprovement6MARSHRISKCONSULTING以史为鉴震惊世界的供应链中断事件对贵司来说，是无关紧要的小意外还是重大危机？2002年，美西封港事件2000年，飞利浦工厂大火1999年，台湾地震2003年，SARS暴发1997年，丰田煞车器零件供应商遭遇大火2011年，日本8.9级大地震2000年，“LoveBug”病毒袭击事件2001年，9.11恐怖袭击2000年，“LoveBug”病毒袭击事件2001年，UPF-Thompson破产2011年，泰国洪水7MARSHRISKCONSULTINGLearningfromthePastSupplyChainDisruptiveEventsthatshooktheWorldIsthisanInsignificantBliporaFullScaleCrisistoyourcompany?8MARSHRISKCONSULTING五大供应链挑战IBM全球首席供应链经理调查研究影响风险管理效率的主要问题(供应链管理人员援引)–缺乏标准的流程、数据不足以及技术欠缺全球400位供应链管理人员参与的全球首席供应链经理调查研究IBMSystemsandTechnologyGroup成本控制供应链可视性风险管理与日俱增的客户需求全球化9MARSHRISKCONSULTINGTopFiveSupplyChainChallengesGlobalChiefSupplyChainOfficerStudybyIBMMajorstumblingblockspreventingeffectiveriskmanagement(ascitedbytheSupplyChainExecutives)–Lackofstandardizedprocesses,insufficientdata,andinadequatetechnologiesGlobalChiefSupplyChainOfficerStudywith400supplychainexecutivesworldwideIBMSystemsandTechnologyGroup10MARSHRISKCONSULTING供应链风险管理SCRM项目成功要素实现供应链可视性，与全球供应网络连接推动风险调整后的供应链管理实施缓释措施，实现业务目标发展全球供应链的可预见性和业务持续性促进创新，寻找不断完善的机会11MARSHRISKCONSULTINGSupplyChainRiskManagementEssentialElementsforaSuccessfulSCRMProgramAttainvisibility&connectivitytotheglobalsupplynetworksFacilitaterisk-adjustedsupplychainmanagementImplementmitigationactionstomeetbusinessobjectivesDeveloppredictability&businesscontinuitywithinglobalsupplychainsStimulateinnovationsseekingopportunitiesforcontinualimprovement12MARSHRISKCONSULTING供应链可视性与风险分析实现供应链的可视性，与全球供应网络连接13MARSHRISKCONSULTINGVisualizeSupplyChain&ProfileRisksAttainingVisibility&ConnectivitytotheGlobalSupplyNetworks14MARSHRISKCONSULTING识别关键产品根据“关键等级标准”对供应基地进行优先排序•采购供应情况/多样性/可替代性•自身风险生产危害等级/易短缺•时间元素库存天数(DOI)/供给恢复时间•业务影响收入损失/天商品关键产品原材料消耗性零部件服务供应基地风险概况7%13%21%31%28%LeveragePartnerManagePlan15MARSHRISKCONSULTINGCriticalProductsIdentificationSupplyBasePrioritizationper“CriticalitySegmentationCriteria”•SourcingAvailability/Diversity/Substitutability•RiskinNatureProductionHazardRating/PronetoShortage•TimeElementsDaysofInventory(DOI)/SupplyResumptionTime•BusinessImpactRevenueLoss/dayCommercialCommoditiesCriticalProductsRawMaterialsConsumingPartsServicesSupplyBaseRiskPortfolio7%13%21%31%28%LeveragePartnerManagePlanDemonstrationOnly16MARSHRISKCONSULTING供应链网络制图上下游供应链视觉再现•实现供应链网络的可视性•分析内/外依存关系•识别供应链的关键节点和瓶颈•模拟、量化供应链中断对业务运营的影响DemonstrationOnly17MARSHRISKCONSULTINGSupplyChainNetworkMappingVisualRepresentationoftheSupplyChainsbothUpstream&Downstream•VisualizeSupplyChainNetworks•AnalyzeInter/IntraDependency•IdentifyKeyNodes&BottleneckswithintheSupplyChains•Simulate&QuantifyBusinessImpactuponDisruptionsDemonstrationOnly18MARSHRISKCONSULTING供应链风险剖析考虑全球风险因素，进行风险评估评估全球供应链网络的关键节点中存在的各类风险自然灾害自然灾害政治与经济风险政治与经济风险恐怖主义恐怖主义基础设施基础设施流行病流行病运输运输19MARSHRISKCONSULTING1919SupplyChainRiskProfilingRiskAssessmentconsideringGlobalRiskThreatsAssessingallformsofrisksthatapplytotheidentifiedkeynodeswithintheglobalsupplychainnetworksNaturalHazardsNaturalHazardsPolitical&EconomicRisksPolitical&EconomicRisksTerrorismTerrorismInfrastructureInfrastructurePandemicsPandemicsTransportationTransportation20MARSHRISKCONSULTING风险缓释战略为供应链管理提供风险调整后的解决方案21MARSHRISKCONSULTING212121RiskMitigationStrategiesDerivingRisk-adjustedSolutionsforSupplyChainManagement22MARSHRISKCONSULTING量化风险及优化战略推动风险调整后的供应链管理基于风险的建模与分析–•压力测试与模拟•发生几率•影响的严重性风险识别量化内外部依存关系经济影响评估连带营业中断评估(包括关键基础设施的中断）风险缓释优化(ROI模拟)供应商财务可行性评估222113589246358161047482019342751565233596226424529184917122841556574711546314151343605044253653861234053313932302437DistributionforRiskA1FORMULA/outputexpected/H46Mean=5259.036X=9531.5495%X=1691.565%00.20.40.60.811.21.41.61.805101520ValuesinThousandsValuesin10^-4DistributionforRiskA1FORMULA/outputexpected/H46Mean=5259.036X=9531.5495%X=1691.565%00.20.40.60.811.21.41.61.805101520ValuesinThousandsValuesin10^-4DistributionforRiskA1FORMULA/outputexpected/H46Mean=5259.036X=9531.5495%X=1691.565%00.20.40.60.811.21.41.61.805101520ValuesinThousandsValuesin10^-4DistributionforRiskA1FORMULA/outputexpected/H46Mean=5259.036X=9531.5495%X=1691.565%00.20.40.60.811.21.41.61.805101520ValuesinThousandsValuesin10^-4DistributionforRiskA1FORMULA/outputexpected/H46Mean=5259.036X=9531.5495%X=1691.565%00.20.40.60.811.21.41.61.805101520ValuesinThousands