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I’mgoingtotalktodayaboutenergyandclimate.Andthatmightseemabitsurprisingbecausemyfull-timeworkatthefoundationismostlyaboutvaccinesandseeds,aboutthethingsthatweneedtoinventanddelivertohelpthepooresttwobillionlivebetterlives.Butenergyandclimateareextremelyimportanttothesepeople,infact,moreimportantthananyoneelseontheplanet.Theclimategettingworsemeansthatmanyyearsthatmanyyears,theircropswon’tgrow.Therewillbetoomuchrain,notenoughrain,thingswillchangeinwaysthattheirfragileenvironmentsimplycan’tsupport.Andthatleadstostarvation,itleadstouncertainty,itleadstounrest.So,thepriceofenergyisveryimportanttothem.Infact,ifyoucouldpickjustonethingtolowerth-epriceof,toreducepoverty,byfaryouwouldpickenergy.Now,thepriceofenergyhasbecomedownovertime.Reallyadvancedcivilizationisbasedonadvancesinenergy.ThecoalrevolutionfueledtheIndustrialRevolution,and,evenin1990swe’veseenaveryrapiddeclineinthepriceofelectricity,andthat’swhywehaverefrigerators,air-conditioning,wecanmakemodernmaterialsanddosomanythings.Andso,we’reinawonderfulsituationwithelectricityintherichworld.But,aswemakeitcheaper-andlet’sgoformakingittwiceascheap-weneedtomeetanewconstrain,andthatconstrainhastodowithCO2.CO2iswarningtheplanet,andtheequationonCO2isactuallyaverystraightforwardone.IfyousumuptheCO2thatgetsemitted,thatleadstoatemperatureincrease,andthattemperatureincreaseleadstosomeverynegativeeffects:theeffectsontheweather,perhapsworse,theindirecteffects,inthatthenatureecosystemscan’tadjusttotheserapidchanges,andsoyougetecosystemcollapses.Now,theexactamountofhowyoumapfromacertainincreaseofCO2towhattemperaturewillbeandwherethepositivefeedbackare,there’ssomeuncertaintythere,butnotverymuch.Andthere’scertainlyuncertaintyabouthowbadthoseeffectswillbe,buttheywillbeextremelybad.Iaskedthetopscientistsonthisseveraltimes.Dowereallyhavetogetdowntonearzero?Can’twejustcutitinhalforaquarter?Andtheansweristhatuntilwegetneartozero,thetemperaturewillcontinuetorise.Andsothat’sabigchallenge.It’sverydifferentthansaying“We’reatwelve-foot-hightrucktryingtogetunderaten-footbridge,andwecanjustsortofsqueezeunder.”Thisissomethingthathastogettozero.Now,weputoutofalotofcarbondioxideeveryyear,over26billiontons.ForeachAmerican,it’sabout20tons;forpeopleinpoorcountries,it’slessthanoneton.It’sanaverageofaboutfivetonsforeveryoneontheplanet.And,somehow,wehavetomakechangesthatwillbringthatdowntozero.It’sbeenconstantlygoingup.It’sonlyvariouseconomicchangesthathavebeenflatteneditatall,sowehavetogofromrapidrisingtofalling,andfallingallthewaytozero.Thisequationhasfourfactors,alittlebitofmultiplication:So,you’regotathingontheleft,CO2,thatyouwanttogettozero,andthat’sgoingtobebasedonthenumberofpeople,theserviceseachperson’susingonaverage,theenergyonaverageforeachservice,andtheCO2beingputoutperunitofenergy.So,let’slookateachoneoftheseandseehowwegetthisdowntozero.Probably,oneofthisnumberisgoingtohavetogetprettyneartozero.Nowthat’sbackfromhighschoolalgebra,butlet’stakealook.First,we’vegotpopulation.Theworldtodayhas6.8billionpeople.That’sheadeduptoaboutninebillion.Now,ifwedoareallygreatjobonnewvaccines,healthcare,reproductivehealthservices,wecouldlowerthatby,perhaps,10or15percent,butthereweseeanincreaseofabout1.3.Thesecondfactoristheservicesweuse.Thisencompasseverything:thefootweeat,clothing,TV,heating.Theseareverygoodthings:gettingridofpovertymeansprovidingtheseservicestoalmosteveryoneontheplanet.Andit’sagreatthingforthisnumbertogoup.Intherichworld,perhapsthetoponebillion,weprobablycouldcutbackanduseless,buteveryyear,thisnumer,onaverage,isgoingtogoup,andso,overall,thatwillmorethandouble,theservicesdeliveredperperson.Herewehaveaverybasicservice:Doyouhavelightinginyourhousetobeabletoreadyourhomework?And,infact,thesekidsdon’t,sothey’regoingoutandreadingtheirschoolworkunderthestreetlamps.Now,efficiency,E,theenergyforeachservice,herefinallywehavesomegoodnews.Wehavesomethingthat’snotgoingup.Throughvariousinventionsandnewwaysofdoinglightingthroughdifferenttypesofcar,differentwaysofbuilding--therearealotofserviceswhereyoucanbringtheenergyforthatservicedownquitesubstantially.Thereareotherserviceslikehowwemakefertilizer,orhowwedoairtransport,wheretheroomsforimprovementarefar,farless.Andso,overallhere,ifwe’reoptimistic,wemaygetareductionofafactorofthreetoeven,perhaps,afactorofsix.Butforthesefirstthreefactorsnow,we’vegonefrom26billionto,atbest,may13billiontons,andthatjustwon’tcutit.Solet’slookatthisfourthfactor-thisisgoingtobeakeyone-andthisistheamountofCO2putoutpereachunitofenergy.Andsothequestionis:canyouactuallygetthattozero?Ifyouburncoal,no.Ifyouburnnaturalgas,no.Almosteverywaymakeelectricitytoday,exceptfortheemergingrenewablesandnuclear,putsoutCO2.Andso,whatwe’regoingtohavetodoataglobalscale,iscreateanewsystem.Andso,weneedenergymiracles.Now,whenIusetheterm“miracle,”Idon’tmeansomethingthat’simpossible.Themicroprocessorisamiracle.Thepersonalcomputerisamiracle.TheInternetanditsservicesaremiracles.So,thepeopleherehaveparticipatedinthecreationofmanymiracles.Usually,wedon’thaveadeadline,whereyouhavetogetthemiraclebyacertain