中国石油天然气上下游基金投资风险管理策略

ProactiveStructuralStrategicChina/GLobalFundRiskManagementChina/Globaloil,gas,housingindustrymarketfundamentalmechanism,risksEarlyWarningOperationsSimulationAnalysis(OSA)中國石油天然氣上下游基金投資風險管理策略Monetary,Economic,FiscalPolicyImpactonChina/GlobalMacro-economicControl,Oil,Gas,Housingdemand,pricesMechanismandInvestmentRisksSimulation/ForecastsWarrenHuang(黃華南博士),PhD,Founder/[e-mail]/[e-mail]orld,PudongConference,March5,2008LectureSummaryProactiveStructuralRisksMechanismOperationsSimulationAnalysisOSAMethodology:Twomasterhandscontrollinglast20yearsGlobalenergy,housing,assetpricebubbleburstMechanism,AllocationFundRisksearlywarning1.China/GlobalCountryRisks:Macroeconomiccontrol,housingbubbleburst,mortgagecrisispolicyimpactoninflation,recession,interestratesanalysis2.CurrencyRisks:Interestrate,tradesurplusimpactonRMB,globalcurrencymarketforcesmechanism,currencycrisisforecasts3.CreditRisks:Oil,gas,China/Foreignplayerscashflow,profits,housingpricebubbleburstimpactoncreditratingandloandefaultsrisk4.OperationalRisks:Allphasesofoil,gas,power,banking,finance,dailytrading,profitperformancerisksreporting,monitoring,simulation.5.MarketRisks:ProactiveVaRpricingforhousing,banking,financeoil,gas,demand,performance,stock,derivativespricesdynamicsmechanismforecast6.Causes,onset,recoveryofdisaster,energy,banking,mortgage,financialcrisis,assetpricesbubble,debt,equities,propertiesNPL7.RisksHedging:Oil,gas,currency,interestratefutures,derivativespricesforecasts,riskshedging.8.CorporateGovernance:Operating,Cost,Financialaccountingdatatracking,assetpricebubbleandscandalscyclesearningwarning9M/A,IPORisks:Jointventures,preandpostM/AandIPOperformance,stockprices,riskstracking.OSAchallengestheunknownfutures,fightcompetition,maximizeRiskadjustedreturninoil,gas,fundinvestmentDr.Huangover30yeardevelop,implementedstructuraldynamicrisksandreturnsimulation,Hepioneeredtwomasterhandscontrollingglobaleconomy,finance,capitalmarketassetprices:extensiveinformationknowledgebasedevelopmentOutof1972-2008(dailyWallStreetJournals,BusinessWeek,tradingdata,internetmarketandeconomicanalysts,technicalanalysis,MonteCarlo,RiskMetricstatisticalanalysisfailtotrackassetprices.HeTrainedthousandsTaiwan,Tsinghua,Tunghai,Fudan,PekingUniversityfaculties,students,appliedhisPh.DthesisMoon-landingguidanceandcontroltochallengetheunknownfutureHepatented“ImproveProcessbyOSA”inUSand82countries,1980,publishedthousandsarticlesonUS,TaiwanandChinagovernment,banking,finance,investmentdailynewspapers,andonUSOil&GasJournaljournalpredictedglobaloil,gas,currency,interest,stockfuturespricessince1980HelecturedChina,Taiwan,US15cities(Beijing,Shanghai,Taipei,SanFranciscoSiliconValley)TV,radio,OPECpetroleumministers,executivesChina/globalstrategicinvestmentriskmanagementworkshopsto30millioninvestors,bankingfinance,enterprisesCEO,executivessince1983.Hepredictedyears/monthaheadof1987USstockcrisis,AsianFinancialcrisis1997,USassetbubbleburst2000andcurrentChina/USratehikes,soaringoil,gas,commoditiespricesonhis:Monetarypolicy,WTOimpactoninflation,GDPgrowth貨幣財經政策入世對中外宏觀調控影響Excessivemoneysupply,ratecuts,DFIresultedsoaringcommodity,assetpricesandfallingUSdollarpushinflationandGDPhigherexportMonetarypolicyForeigndirectinvestmentBusinessdemandFixedinvestmentConsumerdemandMacro-economicinflationandGDPgrowthcurrencyCommoditypricesMonetary,economic,fiscalpolicyimpactonGlobal/Chinamacro-economiccontrolanddailyoil,gas,capitalmarketassetpricessince1983Dr.Huangstructuraldynamicmodelsaccuratelypredicteconomic,energycrisissince1980onAmericanInstitute.ChemicalEngineeringWashingtonDC,WorldCongress1986,TokyoHeaccuratelypredictedinJuly10,1994toWallStreetJournalandWuhanGuotai,WanguoCEOthatShanghaiAindexwillsoaredto800from333inAug.1994.(WSJpublishedlateJulyChinaBsharerebound,ShanghaiAreboundto820inAug-Oct,1994)HewasinvitedbyWanguo,GuotaiandbankingCEOtoofferlecturetothousandsinvestors,traders,moneymanagerpredictedShanghaiAwillbetraded600-800during1994-1996duetomacro-economiccontrol,resultspublishedonWuhansecuritiesnewsOct.31,andBeijinFinancialTimes1994HeaccuratelypredictedinWuhanstockinformationjournalFeb.1995thatShanghaiAwillreboundfrom540to800.ItdidonMay18soaredfrom590to920andplungedto580inthreedays,recommendedbuyShanghaiPetrochemicalatonedollarsoaredto8inAug.HeaccuratelypredictedJune20,1995onBeijinCentralPeoplesradioonehourinterview,andFinancialTimes,EconomicDailynews,CommercialTimesthatShanghaiAwillsoarfrom600to800inAug.1995.PredictedonWuhansecuritiesnewsMarch3,1996,thatChinaPeoplesBankwillcutinterestrate,stockmarketgotobullmarkets,ShanghaiAbreak1600.LecturedShanghaiEasternradioandShanghaistockexchange,Dec.16,1996topredictShanghaiAwillreboundfrom1000to1700in1997after10%pricelimit.andtoBeijingPe