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1TheEffectofFinancialCrisistoRealEstateThesub-loancrisisisalsocalledasthesubprimemortgagecrisisandtranslatedasthesubprimelendingcrisis.ItreferstoafinancialstormthatoccurredintheUnitedStatesduetothebankruptcyofthesub-mortgageagencies,theforcedclosingoftheinvestmentfunds,andthesevereturbulenceofthestockmarket.Itledtothecrisisinlackofliquidityattheworld'smajorfinancialmarkets.TheU.S.Sub-LoanCrisisbegantoemergefromthespringof2006.FromAugustof2007,itstartedtosweepthroughtheUnitedStates,theEuropeanUnion,Japan,andothermajorfinancialmarketsintheworld.Sub-loanmeanssubprimemortgageloan.“Sub”meansthepoorsidecorrespondingto“high”and“excellent”,whileinthesub-loancrisisitreferstothelowcreditandlowdebt-repayingcapacity.Subprimemortgageloanisahigh-riskandhigh-yieldindustry,whichreferstotheloansofferedbyanumberoflendinginstitutionstotheborrowerswithpoorcreditandlowincome.Comparingtothetraditionalstandardmortgageloans,thesubprimemortgageloansdemandlowlevelsontheborrowers’credithistoryandrepayingability,butitscorrespondinglendingrateismuchhigherthanthenormalmortgageloans.Thosewhoarerefusedonhigh-grademortgageloansbythebankfortheirbadcredithistoryorweakrepayingabilitymayapplyforthesubprimemortgageloanstobuyhouses.Whenthehousepriceisgoingup,thesubprimemortgageloansbusinessisbooming.Eveniftheborrower’scashflowcannotrepaytheloan,theymayobtainre-loansfromthevalue-addedrealestatetofillthegap.However,whenthehousepricemaintainsorgoesdown,therewillbeafundinggapandthenthebaddebts.Thesubprimemortgageloanisakindofhousingmortgagesabroad,tosupplyloanstothepeoplewithlessincomeorlower-levelcredithistory.Thereasonforsupplyingloanstothesepeopleisthatthelendinginstitutionscanreceiveamortgageinteresthigherthanthegoodcreditmortgage.Whenthehousepricesrise,theloanswillhavenoproblemsasaresultofadequatevalueinpledge;butwhenthehousepricesfall,valueinpledgeisnolongersufficient,whilethemortgagerhaslessincome,thustheloancontractmaybebreachedandthehousemaybereturnedtothebank.Itwillcausetheincreaseinthebaddebtsofthemortgager,thecollapsedcasesofthemortgageprovidersandtherisksinthefinancialmarkets.Theaddedvalueofrealestateindustryaccountsformorethan5%ofthegrossdomesticproduct(GDP)inourcountry.Asapillarindustry,ithasplayedanimportant2roleinthenationaleconomy.YuXiuqin,thespokeswomanofBeijingMunicipalBureauofStatisticssaidonOctober14,2004,thatBeijing’sGDPinthefirstquarterincreased13%overthesameperiodofthepreviousyear.ThereleasedRealEstateInvestmentReportbytheFixedAssetsInvestmentDivisionofBeijingMunicipalDevelopmentandReformCommissiononOctober15indicatedthattheinvestmentgrowthrateinthefirstthreequartersreducedto20.3%from40.6%inthefirstquarter,rankinginamorereasonablerange.ButtheReportalsopointedoutthatthegreatdroppingintherealestateinvestmentleadingindicators(landdevelopment,etc.)”undoubtedlyaffectedthepotentialgrowthofinvestmentinrealestate.Thedelayedimpactfrommacro-controlmeasuresshallbepaidattentionsto.ThisReportobviouslyremindedthatthedevelopmentandinvestmentinrealestatemaymaintainthedownwardtrendduetotheimpactofmacro-control,anditmayfurtherhaveacertainimpactonBeijing’seconomicgrowthWhatimpactcanmacro-controlbringonBeijing’sGDP?DingXiangyang,DirectorofBeijingMunicipalDevelopmentandReformCommission,saidwhenhereportedtoBeijingPeople'sCongressStandingCommitteeontheimplementationofnationaleconomicandsocialdevelopmentplanduringthefirsthalfyear,thataseriesoflandpoliciesinBeijingsuchasthemoratoriumonagriculturallandrequisition,theceasingofagreedlandtransfer,andtheclean-upofinvestmentprojectsindevelopmentzones,aswellasthemacro-control,hadprobablyeffectedaninvestmentofaboutRMB120billionyuan,withabout2-3percentagepointsonaffectingtheannualeconomicgrowthinthenextfewyears.TheReportoftheFixedAssetsInvestmentDivisionfinallyshowedthatfromtheinvestmentinrecentyears,theproportionofrealestateinvestmenthadalwaysbeenmaintainedatabove55%,whichdidnotmatchthedirectionofindustrialrestructuringondevelopinghigh-techindustriesandmodernmanufacturingsectors.Inordertomaintaintheconsecutiveandstableeconomicgrowthofthecityandoptimizetheindustrialstructure,itisnecessarytointensifytheinvestmentstructureadjustmentandincreasetheproportionofindustrialinvestment,especiallyunderthecircumstancesthatthepotentialsintherealestateindustryareaffectedWecanseesuchalogicrelationship:therealestateinvestmentmaintainsahighproportioninrecentyears,whilethemacro-controlreducestherealestateinvestmentgrowthrate,whichwillannuallydecreaseseveralpercentagepointsofBeijing’sGDPinthenextfewyears.RealestatehasanextraordinaryimpactonBeijing'seconomy.3Theproportionofrealestateinvestmentistoolarge?AccordingtotheplanningofNationalDevelopmentandReformCommission,BeijingCityhascleanedupthefixedassetsprojectsinthecity.FromtheinformationofBeijingMunicipalDevelopmentandReformCommission,therearemorethan6000projectsbeingcleanedup,inwhichmorethan600projectsinvolvedinviolations.Amongthem,thereare53projectsbeingstoppedtheconstructionorcancelledand554projectsbeingsuspendedtheconstructionforrectification,withatotalinvestmentamountofRMB