人民币升值背景下航空公司财务风险管理对策研究

1人民币升值背景下航空公司财务风险管理对策研究摘要在人民币持续升值的宏观经济背景之下，中国南方航空公司面临的各种财务管理风险日益突出。随着全球化的深入发展和世界经济形势变数的增加，这些风险的程度在不断深化，破坏力在不断增强，而与之对称的收益性也在不断提高。本文旨在研究人民币升值背景下南航的财务风险管理将会面对哪些问题以及相应的解决对策。本文根据南航的实际运营情况，运用风险投资的理论分析南航外币业务所面临的主要财务风险；运用风险管理的理论探索南航如何抓住机遇提高自身的竞争力。本文进一步揭示了财务风险管理对于企业经营活动的重要性。提出了具体对策以期帮助航空企业稳定其财务活动，加强其财务风险的管理与防范控制。文中构建的现金流量模型和边际负债预警模型，有利于航空企业进行科学决策，避免和防范财务风险；有利于航空企业创造相对安全稳定的生产经营环境。论文主要涉及如下内容：人民币升值背景及原因的详细分析；人民币升值对中国宏观经济的影响；南航外债现状和原因的分析；人民币升值对南航财务风险管理的影响；人民币升值对南航汇兑收益的影响；各主要货币汇率的变化对南航的影响；为南航风险管理提出各种对策，其中有汇率风险管理的模型分析和建议、利率风险管理的模型分析和建议、债务风险管理的建议、燃油价格风险控制的建议以及反腐等细节上的风险控制建议。关键词：人民币升值，财务风险管理，汇率风险，利率风险2ABSTRACTThecontinuedappreciationintherenminbimacroeconomicbackground,ChinaSouthernAirlinesfaceavarietyoffinancialriskmanagementisincreasinglyoutstanding.Withthecontinuousdevelopmentofglobalizationandworldeconomicsituationvariablesincreases,theriskdegreeisbeingdeepenedceaselessly,destructiveforceintheunceasingenhancement,andthesymmetryoftheincomeisalsorising.ThispapermainlystudiesonthebackgroundofRMBappreciationonChinaSouthernAirlinesfinancialriskmanagementwillencounterwhatmajorproblemsandcorrespondingsolutions.AccordingtoChinaSouthernAirlinesCompany'sactualoperationsituation,theriskinvestment:theoreticalanalysisofforeigncurrencyofChinaSouthernAirlinesbusinessfacingthemainfinancialrisk;theriskmanagementtheorytoexplorethesouthernhowintheprocessofRMBappreciationtoseizetheopportunitytoimprovetheirowncompetitiveness.Thispaperfurtherrevealsthefinancialriskmanagementinenterprisestheimportanceoftheactivity,enhancingthemanagementoffinancialriskisonguardconsciousness;forthestabilityofthefinancialactivitiesofenterprises,strengtheningthemanagementoffinancialriskanditspreventionandcontrolprovidesspecificmeasures,strengthenstheenterprisedecision-makingscientificsexandbenefitsex.Thispaperbuildsthemodelofexchangeprofitandlossanalysis,isconducivetotheaviationenterprisestomakescientificdecisions,avoidandguardagainstfinancialrisk;infavorofaviationenterprisestocreaterelativelysafeandstableproductionandoperationenvironment,toachievebusinessobjectives,enhanceeconomicefficiency,enhancecompetitiveactualstrength;conducivetoimprovingaviationenterprisesurvivalabilityandselfdevelopmentability,maketheaviationenterprisescanmoreactiveparticipationincompetition.Thispapermainlyinvolvesthefollowingcontents:RMBappreciationofthebackgroundanddetailedanalysesofthecauses;theRMBappreciationonChina'smacroeconomicimpact;theappreciationofRMBonChinaSouthernAirlinesfinancialriskmanagement;ChinaSouthernAirlinesexternaldebtsituationandcausesanalysis;theappreciationofRMBonChinaSouthernAirlinesexchangegainstheeffect;majorcurrencyexchangeratechangesontheimpactofChinaSouthernAirlinesChinaSouthernAirlines;riskmanagementandputforwardseveralcountermeasures,includingtheexchangerateriskmanagementmodelanalysisandrecommendations,theinterestrateriskmanagementmodelanalysisandrecommendations,thedebtriskmanagementrecommendations,fuelpriceriskcontrolisproposedandsomedetailsontheriskcontrolsuggestion.3Keywords:RMBappreciation,financialriskmanagement,theriskofexchangerate,theinterestraterisk4目录ABSTRACT....................................................................2第1章绪论..................................................................61.1研究目的和意义.......................................................61.2国内外研究现状.......................................................71.2.1国外研究现状...................................................71.2.2国内研究现状...................................................81.3本文研究内容........................................................10第2章人民币升值趋势分析...................................................112.1人民币升值事件背景..................................................112.2人民币升值原因分析..................................................142.3宏观经济层面人民币升值的利弊权衡....................................172.3.1人民币升值带来的利处..........................................172.3.2人民币升值带来的弊端..........................................19第3章人民币升值对南航的影响分析...........................................213.1南航财务风险分析....................................................213.1.1关于利率风险..................................................213.1.2关于汇率风险..................................................223.1.3关于燃料价格风险..............................................233.2南航外债现状和原因..................................................243.2.1资金不足，盈利能力不强........................................243.2.2在国际融资市场上融资难........................................243.2.3人民币贷款的利率高于日元融资的利率............................253.3人民币升值对中国南航汇兑收益的影响..................................253.4日元汇率的变化对南航的影响...........................错误!未定义书签。3.5美元利率的变化对南航的影响..........................................253.6非美元外币债务对南航损益的影响......................................263.6.1风险表现......................................................263.6.2日元债务对南航损益的影响......................................263.6.3对已到期的日元债务............................................273.6.4对未到期的日元债务.............................错误!未定义书签。第4章南航财务风险管理的对策建议...........................................284.1债务风险....................