搜索
13420118JOURNALOFGEO-INFORMATIONSCIENCEVol.13,No.4Aug.,2011:2010-11-30;:2011-05-23.:(2009-2011);;。:(1989-),,,。E-mail:112233pengbin@163.com＊:(1980-),,,,。E-mail:zhouyl@nju.edu.cn———彭 彬1,周艳莲1,2＊,高 苹3,居为民2(1.,210093;2.,210093;3.,210008):,。672003,30m×30mDEM,、、,,。,;、,,,;,,,。:;;;DOI:10.3724/SP.J.1047.2011.005391 ,。,,/[1],。2080,,[2]。GCM,,。,、,,[3],,。。,。(InverseDistanceWeighting,IDW)、(OrdinaryKriging,OK)、,[4],、3,[5]。,,,DEM。DEM,[6],DEM[1],DEM[7]。,,DEM,,。(Co-Kriging,CK),,,,[8]。,,。,,,,。2003,IDW、OK、17;、、、44,,,。2 2.1 、,。116°18′～121°57′,30°45′～35°20′(1),,50m,,14.3%,624.4m。,,,,,,,,。2.2 (http:∥nfgis.nsdi.gov.cn/)1:400、shpfile。,200367(1),、、、、。DEMASTERGDEM,ASTER(http:∥asterweb.jpl.nasa.gov/gdem.asp),30m×30m,Albers,E110°,N25°N47°,ArcGIS9.2(1);DEM、,DEM,ArcGIS9.2“ExtractToPoints”。2003,ArcGIS9.2[9]。,,。1 Fig.1 Mapofthestudyareaandthedistributionofthemeteorologicalstations540 20113 Tobler,[10-11]。,、、、()、、、,。,、[12](1)。1 Tab.1 Majorcharacteristicsofthecommonlyusedinterpolationmethods√√√√√√√√√IDW√√√Spline√√√Kriging√√√ 、、,。。、,。3.1 (1)(IDW),,,ve,:ve=∑nj=1wjvj(1),vj(j=1,2…,n)(xj,yj);wj,:wj=f(dej)∑nj=1f(dej)(2),n,f(dej)(xe,ye)(xj,yj)dej,[11]。(2)(Spline),,,。,、、。ve,:ve=∑nj=1Ajdej2logdej+axe+bye+c(3),n,dej(xe,ye)(xj,yj),Aj、a、b、c[13-14]。(SplineWithTension)(RegularizedSpline)。,。(3)(OK)、、、、、,,,,(BestLinearUnbiasedEs-timator,BLUE)[11,15-17]。,,,。ve,:ve=∑nj=1rjvj(4),vj(j=1,2…,n)(xj,yj);rj,,:r＊(h)=12Nh∑Nhi=1[v(xi+h)-v(xi)]2(5)5414 : ,h,Nh(xi+h,xi)。、、、DeWijsian,。(4)(CK),,,,[15,18-20]。,v1(x),v2(x),…vm(x)v1,v2,…vmx,Vx=v1x,v2x,…vmx,x1,x2,…xnVx1,Vx2,…Vxn,[15]:Vex=∑ni=1VxiΓi(6),Γi,,:γ12(h)=Ev1x+h-v1xv2x+h-v2x(7)3.2 ———,,,。,。(MeanAbsoluteError,MAE)(RootMeanSquareError,RMSE),:MAE=1n∑ni=1abs(Toi-Tei)(8)RMSE=1n∑ni=1(Toi-Tei)2(9) ,n,ToiTeii。4 4.1 IDW、SplineOK20031、7,IDW、SplineOK3,,2。,1,3MAE0.23℃、0.22℃0.21℃,OK;7,3MAE0.19℃、0.18℃0.18℃,OK;17,3RMSEOK;,30.23℃,。,IDWSplineOK,,0.01℃2 IDW、SplineOK(℃)Tab.2 PrecisionofIDW,SplineandOKmethods(℃)17MAERMSEMAERMSEMAERMSEIDW0.230.280.190.240.180.23Spline0.220.280.180.230.180.23OK0.210.270.180.210.180.233 、、Tab.3 Correlationcoefficientsofmeanairtemperaturewithlatitute,longitude,distancefromthecoastandelevation1-0.97a0.59a-0.03-0.132-0.97a0.54a0.03-0.103-0.87a0.200.37a0.114-0.62a-0.100.48a0.26b5-0.51a-0.33a0.71a0.38a6-0.42a-0.39a0.74a0.41a7-0.94a0.37a0.200.058-0.96a0.60a-0.06-0.149-0.96a0.65a-0.09-0.2110-0.88a0.73a-0.29b-0.30b11-0.92a0.82a-0.33a-0.34a12-0.96a0.70a-0.16-0.25b-0.95a0.46a0.10-0.06 a:0.01;b:0.05;542 2011,OKSpline,1、7IDWOKSpline。,1、73,MAERMSE,OKSpline,SplineIDW。4.2 CKOK4.2.1 (1)、、。,,,,,、、4,。3,,0.85,0.01;,34,0.01;3、4、5、6、1011,10,4 Tab.4 Thecorrelationcoefficientmatrixamongthefourauxiliaryvariables1-0.60a1-0.01-0.77a10.11-0.56a0.57a1 a:0.01;5 Tab.5 ThecorrelationcoefficientsbetweenprincipalcomponentsandauxiliaryvariablesPC1PC2PC3PC40.47a-0.88a0.080.07-0.96a0.200.180.110.83a0.42a-0.35a0.080.76a0.32a0.57a0.01 a:0.01。0.01;,,,,。(2)、、,。44,、、,0.01。-,(1)。,;,,。(3),,,SPSS,、、4,(PrincipalComponentAnalysis,PCA),59.95%、87.29%、99.43%100%,85%,。45,,,。(4)46。4,。34,、0.010.05,,。,3、4、565434 : ,4,,34。,,,3PC2,47PC2PC4,PC1PC2。6 Tab.6 ThecorrelationcoefficientsbetweenprincipalcomponentsandmeanairtemperaturesPC1PC2PC3PC41-0.47a0.84a-0.07-0.142-0.42a0.86a-0.10-0.153-0.090.91a-0.20-0.2140.170.74a-0.17-0.47a50.40a0.73a-0.28b-0.36a60.46a0.67a-0.28b-0.29b7-0.25b0.91a-0.10-0.25b8-0.49a0.82a-0.05-0.189-0.54a0.79a-0.09-0.1010-0.66a0.64a-0.02-0.2011-0.72a0.66a-0.01-0.0312-0.60a0.76a-0.07-0.11-0.35a0.87a-0.12-0.21 a:0.01;b:0.05;4.2.2 CKOK,[21],,(Trend)(Drift)。,2003,。7。,6MAEMAE,MAERMSECKOK,。6,664,,。7,,MAE5.6%,RMSE4.8%。(3、45),(12、12),(6、78),(9、1011)。7 (℃)Tab.7 PrecisioncomparisonforCKandOK(℃)CKOKMAERMSEMAERMSE10.190.260.200.2620.150.190.150.1930.180.230.190.2340.190.230.200.2450.220.280.220.2860.270.320.260.3270.170.200.180.2180.200.250.210.2690.250.310.250.31100.260.320.270.32110.220.270.230.27120.220.280.220.280.180.230.190.23 CKOK,1、7(2)。1、7CKOK;,1、7CKOK,7。,2CK“”,,OK,CK。,CK544 20112 CKOKFig.2 MapsofspatialdistributionofstandarderrorsforCKandOKOK。,2,,。3(a) 2003Fig.3(a) TheCo-KringinterpolationresultofmonthlymeanairtemperaturesinJiangsu,winterandspring,20034.3 2003,3。,200313.40～17.30℃,410;17,-0.62℃,30.32℃;。3(a)(b)、,-,。“”;,-,,“”。,3,4、56,,3。5454 : 3(b) 2003Fig.3(b) TheCo-KringinterpolationresultofmonthlymeanairtemperaturesinJiangsu,summerandautumn,20035 5.1 ,5%,(),(),。,,。6710、20、30、40、5060,,,。(4),(10),17,,,。,,,。4,,10-20,,,0.2～0.3℃。4 Fig.4 Thevariationofinterpolationprecisionalongwiththechangeofstationdensity5.2 (1),,。(2)、、,,,。546 2011(3),,,。 、(NFGIS)、(METI)(NASA);,。:[1],.[J].,2004,32(5):352-356.[2],.[J].,2007,27(5):584-589.[3],,,.[J].,2009,29(1):133-137.[4],,,.———[J].,2005,27(5):173-179.[5],.[J].,2004,27(4):11-13.[6],,.DEM[J].,2009,27(1):10-17.[7],,,.ArcEngineDEM[J].,2008,31(6):86-88.[8],,,.10[J].,2009,11(5):585-596.[9],.ArcGIS[M].:,2006,372-388.[10],,.[J].,2004,23(4):425-432.[11],.[M].:,2006,17-29.[12]ChangKang-tsung.IntroductiontoGeographicInfor-mationSystems(thirdeditio