搜索
20041212:100026788(2004)1220013206SD1,2,3,1(11,130012;21,100101;31,710069):22,,LL,,,,L:SD;;;:F061.5;N94:AApplicationofSystemDynamicModelinRegionalSustainableDevelopmentPlanningCHENGYe2qing1,2,LITong2sheng3,ZHANGPing2yu1(11NortheastInstituteofGeographyandAgriculturalEcology,CAS,Changchun,130012,China;21InstituteofGeographicalSciencesandNaturalResourcesResearch,CAS,Beijing100101,China;31DepartmentofUrbanandResourcesNorthwestUniversity,Xi’an710069,China)Abstract:Regionalnature2society2economycomplexsystemisanexotericgiganticsystemwithdissipationstructureandhigh-step,multi2variables,multi2loopsandnonlinearfeedbackstructure,theactionofthesystemsometimeshaveanti2verticalandathinkskintothechangesofinteriorparameter.Applyingsystemdynamicsmethodtoestablishmodelsofregionalsustainabledevelopmentcandepictsystemicnonlinearstructureanddynamiccharactermoreadequatelythantraditionalmathematicmodels.Withaviewtothecomplexdynamicrelationofregionalsustainabledevelopmentsystem,takingcountyregionforanexample,threeprojectsweresimulated:(1)Economyaccrualmethod.Theintensityofresourceexploitationandenvironmentpollutionistheleast,butthespeedofitseconomydevelopmentisthelowest.(2)Economyhigh2speeddevelopmentmethod.Theintensityofresourceexploitationandenvironmentpollutionistheworst,economicdevelopmentmostlydependsonhighinvestmentandpollution.(3)Economymoderationdevelopmentmode.Themodeconsidersnotonlyeconomicsustainabledevelopmentandnaturalrecoursesutilizingreasonably,butalsogivesattentiontopollutionprotectionanddevelopmentofindustry,agriculture,tourismandsoon.Soitisthebestmode.Keywords:systemdynamicsmodel;regionalsustainabledevelopment;flowofsystemdynamic;developmodes:2004202221:(40131010);(KZCX12SW219):(1976-),,,,,1,,,©1995-2005TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.[1],22[2],,[3],,(),,,L,[4]L,SD,,22,[58]L,,SD,L2(SystemDynamic)JayW.Forrester,L,,,[3]L,:,,,,,,L,L211,:L,,;L,,,L;L,,,,;L,,,L212:L,,,;L,;L,,,;LSystemDynamicVism,.L3311,L1)LL,(NYCZ),41200412©1995-2005TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.(NYGDZC),(NYTZZL)(NYZCZJ),(NYTZXS)(NYZJR),,L(GYGDTZ),(GYTZZL)(GYTZZJ)L(LYCZ),L(QTYCZ)(GYCZ),L(GNSCZZ)(GDZCTZ),,L2)L(ZRK),,(CSR)(SWR)(QCR)(QRR),(GKYSL)(SWRK)(QCRK)(QRRK)L,,L3)L(GDMJ)(MTCL),(GSL)(XSL)(MTKCL)(GDZL)(GDJL),(YSL)(MTKCR)(GDZR)(GDJR),L4)L(GFCL)(FSCL)(FQCL),(WYGFPR)(WYFSPR)(WYFQPR)(HBTZ)L312(1)1313,20002050,50,19922001,2000,[9]:(01011)(010115)(0127)(17ö);(01016)(010046)(010188)(01015)(01317ö)(28ö)(0100245ö);5112SD©1995-2005TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.(0149)(0103)(0197);L3141992200110L,,-511%5101%,,,,L4L,,,3:É;Ê;Ë,1L12000201020202050ÉÊËÉÊËÉÊËö12.0513.9514.3713.0517.1416.1514.1217.5418.6216.04ö14429143571385714142142851330913860140721178913049ö5.4469.54914.78513.07216.61033.27427.06979.537346.68205.55ö0.9891.1822.1004.6081.4602.4974.9112.2143.6235.766ö2.3304.3496.2715.9037.90215.85314.264.115184.10105.67ö960105812181183116715381457156331172726ö3.0064.67910.3508.8898.13923.29218.40838.973242.67149.06ö120.23187.17423.98888.87325.56931.671840.81558.99706.914906öm33529.84244.97200.46363.95243.58756.57702.68658.91669813517öm32467.92467.9888955622467.9888955622467.988895562öm3-1062-17771689-801.9-2776132.54-2045-6191-7809-7955ö489.41509.51532.312093400.74389.93015.3229846543135771ö0.5680.8680.1000.7441.6881.3341.12523.37193.67251.78ö120.34172.93171.58155.78274.45334.21279.181454.14317.32962.6ö14.5534.9954.4447.6170.95151.43120.46407.471854.41161.1ö0.21430.3212.1911.2960.5725.0332.7382.78053.14222.483ö20.63520.42820.5620.5120.04320.36620.21416.05116.27815.240411É,L,ÊË,2050,79154,Ê22194%Ë55144%,Ê65117%Ë75132%L,,,,,22%,2050865819m3,6191m3,Ê79128%61200412©1995-2005TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.Ë81142%,,ÊËL,ÊË1121108L,,,,2050161051,ÊË0112701582LÊ33168%35113%24195%Ë49108%64125%45114%L,ÉÊË,,,,,L412Ê,0149017,,É217%6%,,22%,80%,115%,212%,L,,ÉË1152,GDPÉË311%112%LÉË911%312%,ÉË2188%0159%L,É4513,Ë71106L,,;,,LÊ,ÉË22831260,ÉË70763905;20507809m3,,,,,L,Ê,,2050,ÉË28621874244770130113541729660411892L,Ê,,,,L413Ë,,,;;,;,,;,,L,,L,1117,16%,113%,50%,2%,0168,7311%,1119%,1%L:ÉÊ,2050143145,GDP717%,4174%1214,ÉÊ;,2050ÉÊ;L,Ê,,ÉË,,LÉ,,,,,LË,;,;,,L,ËL7112SD©1995-2005TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.:[1],.[J].,1998,17(2):131-137.LuMinglun,LiuWeiguo.Astudyonregionalsustainabledevelopmenttheory[J].GeographicalResearch,1998,17(2):131-137.[2],.[M].:,1994.QianXuesen,etal.OnGeographicalScience[M].Hangzhou:ZhejiangEducationPress,1994.[3].[M].:,1994.WangQifan.SystemDynamic[M].Beijing:TsinghuaUniversityPress,1994.[4].[J].,1995,4(2):6-12.WangQifan.Newprogressintheoryandmethodologyofsystemdynamic[J].SystemEngineering2theoryMethodologyapplication,1995,4(2):6-12.[5],,,.[J].,2002,12(2):81-86.QuGuangyi,GuoHuaicheng,SunYanfengetal.StrategyforthesustainabledevelopmentinMiyunreservoirbasin[J].ChinaPopulation,ResourcesandEnvironment,2002,12(2):81-86.[6],,.[J].,2001,19(3):61-68.WangHuimin,LiuXinren,XuLizhong.Studyonearlywarningmethodsofsystemdynamicsofriverbasinsustainabledevelopment[J].SystemsEngineeri