健康风险评价中的不确定性分析

(,102205)(,473000)(,102205),,1,,,,3:(1);(2);(3),,,(HealthRiskAssessment,HRA)25,2:,,,:;;;;,,2,(WHO),,,EPA::::,,,,,EPA3:(1)66200312216(2),(3),:(1)2(2)2(3)2,22(4)22,,,=CSIRCFFIEFEDBWAT=SFCSmgPkg;IRmgPd;EFdPa;EDa;ATd;FI();CFkgPmg;SFkgdPmg;BWkg,Lognormal,Beta,(PDF)(CDF)133112,2:;,,,(PBPK)2,,(NOAEL)(LOAEL)(MATC)(LD50)(LC50)(AF)(SF)22312,,24:(1)2;(2)(RfC);(3)2;(4),22,,2,,,,,,276200312216,(NOAEL),(NOAELhum):RfC=NOAELhum/(UFMF),UF,MF1PDFCDFNormalPGaussianf(x)=12e-(x-)2220Lognormalf(x)=1x2e-(logx-)222,0,x0Exponentialf(x)=e-x,0,x0F(x)=1-e-x,x0Weibullf(x)=x--1exp-x-,x,0,0F(x)=1-exp-x-x,0,0Gammaf(x)=(x-)-1()exp-x-,x,0,0Betaf(x)=(+)()()(-)1--(x-)-1(-x)-1x,0,0Uniformf(x)=1-,xF(x)=0,x,x--,x,1,x,Triangularf(x)=2(x-)(-)(-),x2(-x)(-)(-),xf(x)=(x-)2(-)(-),x1-2(-x)2(-)(-),xPoissonf(x)=xe-x!,0x,0F(x)=ni=0ie-i!,0x,0Binomialf(x)=nxpn(1-p)n-1F(x)=ni=0nipi(1-p)n-12One2hitmodelP(d)=1-exp-(a+bd),a0,b0Multi2hitmodelP(d)=bd0xk-1exp(-x)(k)dxMultistagemodelP(d)=1-exp[-(q0+q1d+q2d2++qkdk)],k1ProbitmodelP(d)=(a+blgd)LogitmodelP(d)=[1+exp-(a+blgd)]-1,a,b0WeibullmodelP(d)=1+exp-(bdk),b,k0862003122164,;,;,,(1)(MonteCarloAnalysis,MCA)MCA,:;;;,(ReasonableMaximumExposure,RME),(BaselineRiskAnalysis,BRA),,,BRA10-5,MCA,,MCA:;MCAEPAMCA,,(2)(MethodofMoment),,(3)(ProbabilityTrees)3,,,(4)Bayesian,,,Bayesian,,,,(5),5,,,,EPA,,1..:,2000.2..:,2002.3U.S.EnvironmentalProtectionAgency.Riskassessmentguidanceforsuperfund.volume1,humanhealthevaluationmanual.PartA,WshingtonDC,April1990.4GeraldHarris,RobinVanHorn.UseofMonteCarloMethodsinenvironmentalriskassessmentsattheINEL:ApplicationandIssues.IdoNationalEngineeringLaboratory,June1996.5U.S.EnvironmentalProtectionAgency.Adescriptiveguidetoriskassessmentmethodologiesfortoxicairpollutants.AireRiskInformationSupportCenter,sept.1993.6U.S.EnvironmentalProtectionAgency.Guidelinesforexpoureassessment.Washington,DC,May,1992.7VincentT.Covello&MlieyW.Merkhofer.Riskassessmentmethodsapproachesforassessinghealthandenvironmentalrisks.NewYorkandLondon,1993.102205104418(010)[e-mail]2003-04-1296200312216AbstractTakeferro2manganesealloycindersasrawmaterial,amanganesesulfatesolutionismadebymeansofsulfurdioxidedeoxidizationandsinteringrespectively.Accordingtothetestresults,itiseconomicalandfeasibletomakemanganesesulfatesolutionfromferro2manganesealloycinders.Keywordsferro2manganesealloy,cinders,manganesesulfatesolution,sulfurdioxidedeoxidizationmethodandsinteringmethodSTUDYONRECLAMATIONANDRECYCLEOFWASTESODIUMSILICATEZhaoHengyi(56)AbstractInthispaper,thephasecompositionofthewastesodiumsilicateshellhasbeentested,andtheproperties(intensityandthermaldistortionunderloadandairpermeability)ofsodiumsilicateshellwhichismadefromthewasteorthemixturethatbemixedwastewithalumina2silicarefractorymaterialhavebeenstudied.Bycomparisiontothepropertiesofclay2silicashell,theresultsshowthatthewastesodiumsilicateshellisnotreclaimedandrecycled,butbakedshellwasteandpouredshellwastemixedwithalumina2silicamaterialatproperproportioncanbereclaimedandrecycledforbackingmaterialofshell.Keywordswaste,sodiumsilicateshellandreclamation&recycleRESEARCHONDETERMINATIONOFSULFIDESINWATERANDWASTEWATERGuiLieyong(59)AbstractAnexperimentofdeterminingsulfidesinwaterandwastewaterisconductedandtheresultsshow:Themonitoringdataofsulfidesinwastewaterwithiodometricmethodmayhaveerrorsbecausethedisturbancecannotbeeliminated.Forthesamesampleofwastewater,themonitoringdatacanbejudgedbyPb(Ac)2semi2quantitativemethodwhenthedatadeterminedbyiodimetricmethodandp2aminodimethylanilinephotometryhaveobviousdifference.Forp2aminodimethylanilinephotometry,thelinearlimitofthestandardcurvecanbeexpandedfrom025gto040g.Theturrbidliquorof5.0gPmLZnScankeepsteady2goingforonemonthatleastwhenitwaspreservedinafridge.Keywordssulfide,iodimetricmethodandmethylenebluespectrophotometricmethodDETERMINATIONOFTRACECu2+INELECTROPLATINGEFFLUENTWITHMETHYLVIOLETFADINGPHOTOMETRYGuoZhenliangetal(61)AbstractItisinvestigatedthatCu2+cancatalyzethefadingoxidationofmethylvioletbyhyderogenperoxideinHNO3mediumat95.Onthebasisofwhich,anewmethodofdeterminingtraceCu2+isestablished,whosemaximumabsorptivewavelengthis580nm,apparentmolarabsorptivityis2188105LPmolcm;linearrangeis0120gPLforCu2+anddetectionlimitis117910-10gPL.ThemethodhasbeenappliedtothedeterminationofCu2+inelectroplatingeffluentwithsatisfactoryresults.Keywordselectroplatingeffluent,copper,methylvioletandfadingphotometrySTUDYONMODIFICATIONOFDETERMININGMETHODOFCHLORINEDIOXIDEINTREATINGWASTEWATERFROMHOSPITALSLiZhifuetal(63)AbstractInthispaper,chlorinedioxide,producedfromR5method,wasusedtotreathospitalwastewaterasadisinfectant.Accordingtotheshortageofthedeterminationofremainderchlorinedioxidebyiodimetricmethod,themethodofdeterminationwasimprovedbycontrollingpHandusingstabilizer,activatorandmaskingagent.TherespectivedeterminationofClO2,Cl2,ClO22andClO-3inasolutionwasrealized.Theresultshowsthattheimprovedmethodcanreflectpreciselychlorinedioxideofsolution.KeywordsR5method,chlorinedioxide,chlorine,chlorite,chlorateandhospi