允许风险分析方法在防洪安全决策中的应用

20055SHUILIXUEBAO3651:0559-9350(2005)05-0618-06(210029)X820.4A(1)(2)11.1PFPFL(LOSLOL)R=PF×L(1)1.2()RR*RR*(2)2004-09-20(SCX2002-06)(1970-)E-mail:[e-mail]20055SHUILIXUEBAO3652RR*RR*S=minS1+S2(3)SS1S2RR*22.10-1tPFt=P[AB]=P[A]P[B/A](4)ABP[A]AP[AB]ABP[B/A]t1PF1NPFNPF1PFN=1-(1-PF1)N(5)PF12.1.1P[A](Q)Ai=(Qi,Qi+1]1()[]110==∑∫=∞niiAPdQQf(6)f(Q)Q20055SHUILIXUEBAO36532.1.2H(H)D()Z=H-D=0(7)Pf=P[B/A]=P[HD]=()∫0Zdzzf(8)Zf(z)zD()DDDDHH[1]Hf(h,t)H(t)H(t)H[2]H(x)f(hx)H(x)H(x)2.1.3HDz()()=−−001020zzzzezzzkBµ(9)k2.0z0Bµ(z)PF1(8)1PF1()()∫∫∞⋅=1001dzdpzfzPFBµ(10)120055SHUILIXUEBAO36542.2[3]1()FCWTFCWTPARPARLOL⋅+−⋅+=223.2790.3759.0exp277.13144.0(11)LOLPARWTFC3PF1LOL2[4]ANCOLDPF1LOL3R*=0.001/R*0.0001/2[5]R*0.10.001/20055SHUILIXUEBAO365585000R*=0.001/85R*4501004.150100(3)PPfPr0-1()PPf(PPr)Pf1P1PPrPPf0PPfPF150100PF10.0224/0.0161/0.0063/Z=1.0mPF121.3%0.0127/4.212.8FC0(11)(4)0.5h30%2h80%6h14.3100PF1=0.0127/1R=0.0127/10-3/(1)PF18001000LOL3PPf420055SHUILIXUEBAO36564.3.148h0.0016/0.001/1012h8h4.3.21004000m3/s7800m3/s26.52m25.86m38.71%24h810hR0.00270.0006/5[1].[J].1995(2)128-137.[2]ShuhaiJiang.Applicationofstochasticdifferentialequationsinriskassessmentforfloodreleases[J].JournalofHydrolgicalSciences,1998,43(3):349-360.[3]DeKayML,McClellandGH.Predictinglossoflifeincaseofdamfailureandflashflood[J].RiskAnalysis,1993,(2):193-205.[4]KrenzerH.Theuseofriskanalysistosupportdamsafetydecisionandmanagement[A].Q76GeneralReport.TheProceedingsof21thInt.CongressonLargeDams[C].BeijingChina.2000.799-801.[5]CentreforCivilEngineeringResearchandCodesTechnicalAdvisoryCommitteeonWaterDefence.Probabilisticdesignofflooddefence[M].CUR/TAWreport1990.20055SHUILIXUEBAO3657Applicationoftoleranceriskanalysismethodindecision-makingoffloodpreventionFANZi-wu,JIANGShu-hai(NanjingHydraulicResearchInstitute,Nanjing210029,China)Abstract:Thetoleranceriskanalysismethodisbasedontheideaofputtingthesafetyofpeopleasthemostimportantthing.Accordingtothelgicprocessofovertoppingofflooddefenseprojectsaquantitativecalculationmethodforfloodpreventionriskratioisproposedandanempiricalequationforpredictinglossoflivesisdeduced.Thetoleranceriskcriterionisdiscussed.TheproposedmethodisappliedtoquantitativelycalculatetheflooddefenseriskofLuomaLake,andthecorrespondingdecision-makingoffloodpreventionsafetyisevaluated.Finally,thefeasibilityoffloodforecastsystemforimprovingthefloodpreventionsafetyisanalyzed.Keywords:toleranceriskanalysis;floodpreventionriskratio;lossoflives;decision-makingoffloodprevention