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2011中国光伏产业发展报告SEMIPVGroupSEMIPVGroup(CPIA)SEMIPVGroupIEA2010WorldEnergyOutlook2010“NewPoliciesScenario”200881%203574%2011中国光伏产业发展报告Contents12345671一次能源需求总量（百万吨油当量）年均复合增长率（%）2020200540-45%15%IEAGDP2010GDP20094.01%“”GDP19.1%20093002020100012/29/10数据来源:IEAWorldEnergyOutlook2010–NewPoliciesScenario,SEMI1IEA200817%203523%“NewPoliciesScenario”200820352.1%3.8%219908,7798729.9%200812,2712,13117.4%201513,7762,88721.0%202014,5563,15921.7%202515,2633,36922.1%203016,0143,56822.3%203516,7483,73722.3%2008-20351.2%2.1%数据来源:IEAWorldEnergyOutlook2010–NewPoliciesScenario,SEMI电力需求总量（万亿瓦时）年均复合增长率（%）199011,2816505.5%200820,1833,49517.3%201524,5135,72123.3%202027,7336,94925.4%202530,0167,90026.3%203032,6968,77626.8%203535,3369,59427.2%2008-20352.1%3.8%0500010000150002000025000300003500040000231990200820152020202520302035020004000600080001000012000140001600018000201026.6%1.178622.632010364163.5%201046%201035.8%41%2020“”2011202020112020105数据来源:3452010年中国底发电装机总容量（万千瓦）数据来源:2010年中国新增发电设备容量（万千瓦）2010202020%EPIA20202%12%2010201040GW20102010年底欧洲发电装机总容量（万千瓦）2010年欧洲新增发电设备容量（万千瓦）数据来源:EWEA,SEMI数据来源:EWEA,SEMI数据来源:CPIA,SEMI20045100%20074201050%3000304中国2010年光伏行业主要环节产能及产量统计201085,00023GW21GW2.5GW201045,00011GW8.5GW0.5GW197878/20102/“”201050%20092010227274754976782008145MW20093BIPV20097“”201MW201054MW200910MWEnfinity1.0928/2010“”2010272MW1320121000MW20108280MW0.7288/0.9907/2009160MW20082010500MW20092%201013%FITFIT“”“”5920061603100.6%20072,932200.7%20085,950400.7%20097,3801602.2%201016,0005003.1%20062008200720092010040008000120001600020000全球及中国光伏年度装机量数据来源:SEMIIEA202060GW2030270GW202020GWSEMI201021GW201130GW2020200695%SEMI102012“”61011数据来源:IEASolarPVRoadmap,SEMI中国电力需求及太阳能光伏发电量SEMIPVGroupSEMI2009China’sSolarFuture–APreliminaryReportonaRecommendedChinaPVPolicyRoadmap2020SEMIPVGroupSEMIIEA20105201020201.3%20304.6%20104,1920.5%20.820206,9491.30%906020308,7764.60%4042690.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.52008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020中国光伏发电成本预测BIPV“”SEMIPVGroupSEMI712RECSilicon()/LDK()()()/SEMISEMISEMIPVGroupSEMISEMISEMIPVGroupSEMISEMISEMI/SEMIPVGroupSEMIkqiao@semi.orgtyu@semi.org