预见性政府治理与社会突发事件的预警机制

36220063()JournalofZhejiangUniversity(HumanitiesandSocialSciences)Vol.36,No.2Mar.2006[]20050818[][](04ZDZB08)[]1.(1964),,,,;2.(1982),,,,:,(,310027)[],,[];;;[]G64;F035.4[]A[]1008942X(2006)02006409,,,;,,,,,,,,()207080,,,,:,,©1994-2008ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.[1][2],,,,,,,,,,,,[3],,,,,,[4],,,,,,,,,,,[5],,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,()20049,,2005219,,,,,,,562,:©1994-2008ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(),,,,,,,,,,,9.11,,[6],,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,66()36©1994-2008ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(),,,,,,1.,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,21,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,31,,,,,,,,SARS,,41,,,,,,,(),,,,,?,,,,,762,:©1994-2008ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(),,,,,,,,,,,:;;;;[7],,,;,,,;;,,(),:11,,,,,,,21,;,;,,,,,,,,,,,31,,,,,,,86()36©1994-2008ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.:;;;,;(),,,,,,:;;,;:[8];;11,,,,,456;,,,,,21:(1)(2),,(3),(4)(5)(6),31,:(1)(2)(3),(4),,(5),,(6),962,:©1994-2008ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(7),,,41,,,,;,,,,,,,,,(),,,,,,:11,,,,,,,21,,,,,,31,,,,41,,,,,,;,,,,;,,07()36©1994-2008ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.[][1],.[M].:,2001.271.[2][]E..[M].:,2001.8.[3].[M].:,2003.1.[4][]B..[M].:,2001.155.[5][],.:[M].:,1996.202.[6].[M].:,2004.18.[7].:[J].,2004,(4):81-82.[8].:[J].,1993,(3):45.AStudyonInstitutionofSocialCrisisDetectionHUShui2gen,WENGLie2en(CollegeofPublicAdministration,ZhejiangUniwersity,Hangzhong310027,China)Abstract:VariousemergenciesandcrisesindifferentsocialaspectsareontheincreaseinthetransitionalChinaalongwiththedevelopmentofthesocialistmarketeconomyofthiscountry.Nowadays,anemergencysituationmayoftencausegreatimpactonsocial,political,economical,andculturalspheres.Therefore,theoreticalstudiesandempiricalpracticesonemergencieshavebeenanimportantobjectinthedomainofadministrationintheWesterncountries.Itiscommontoestablishageneralinstitutionofcrisisdetectionaswellasaninstitutionofcrisismanagement.Theformerpaysattentiontopreventingwhilethelatertotreating.Toestablishasystemicmechanismofcrisisdetectionisthepremiseandjumping-offpointthatdevelopsthemechanismofgovernmentcrisismanagement,whichfeaturesonsolvingsocialemergencies.Withthespreadoftheideaofaharmonioussociety,toestablishaninstitutionofearlycrisisdetectionhasbecomeavitaltaskinpreventingcrisis,maintainingsocialstability,anddevelopingaharmonioussociety.Agovernmentwithforesightandpreparationmaybehelpfulinpromotingtheadministrationefficiency,andimprovinggovernmentservices.Moreover,itisalsoanimportantdimensiontojudgegovernmentmanagementcapability.Thispapergoesdeepintodiscussiononthebackground,necessity,andtheoreticalfoundationoftheinstitutionofcrisisdetection.Itbelievesthattheinstitutionisnotonlyanimportantguaranteeforthedevelopmentofaharmonioussocietybutalsoavitalapproachtoimprovingthequalityofadministrationandgovernance.Inthelightofthenecessityofdevelopingaformalinstitutionofcrisisdetectionatthepresentstage,effortisfocusedonthestudyofthefollowingtwoaspects:organizingcapabilityandinstitutionalframeworkofcrisisdetection.Todevelopaformalinstitutionofcrisisdetectionisnotasimpletask.It172,:©1994-2008ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.:agovernmentwithforesightandpreparation;governance;socialcrisisandemergencies;institutionofdetection(,310028)()(1)(PrintOnDemand,POD),,,,,(2),,,,,,,,,,,,,,()(1)1997,,,,,,,20044,(2)1993,,,,,,1010%,60%,()(1),,,,,(2)(3),,(4),(5),,,,27()36©1994-2008ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.