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1.11.21(HaroldD.Skipper,Jr.)(GeorgiaStateUniversity)161-11-11.3CNNIBM75%802BlackandSkipper1994InternationalInsuranceSocietyValueStatementnd1-21-2GDP1984100*19951996InternationalMonetaryFund1080%Bancassurance311984198619881990199219941996*ExclusiveAgentBrokerIndependentAgentDirectRespond1.41.4.11.4.21RiskPureRiskSpeculativeRisk42.RiskManagement1)2)3)251.4.3(MultinationalEnterprise,MNE)MultinationalCorporationMNCTransnationalCorporationTNC19953800025000090%/51.4.421992ANDREW51•(SocialInsurance)/(PrivateInsurance)•(LifeInsurance)(Non-lifeInsurance)()•(CommercialLinesInsurance)(PersonalLinesInsurance)•(DirectInsurance)(Reinsurance)1./22.1-1(PropertyInsurance)/(CasualtyInsurance)(GeneralInsurance)1)2)3)191)2)3)4)63.1313,10114.23(Reinsurance)(Reinsurer)(Retrocede)1.4.513200121-251199518571140005()1551095415UNsCurrentUncertaintiesContrastWithEorlyOptimism,TheGlobeandMail,June27,1995,P.A121)(EuropeanUnion,EU)(EuropeanCommunity,EC)15131-11-1(EuropeanFreeTradeAssociation,EFTA)(EuropeanEconomicArea,EEA)1960199572)(NorthAmericanFreeTradeAgreement,NAFTA)199783)(OrganizationforEconomicCooperationandDevelopment,OECD)2913(CentrallyPlannedEconomies)1-21-21-33/41-3GrossDomesticProductGrossNationalProduct(GroupofSevenG7)10(Group91ofTenG10)1-41/21-4PurchasingPowerParity,PPPmarketexchangerate4)(AssociationofSoutheastAsianNations,ASEAN)10(FourTigers)FourDragons2090199519975)(SouthernConeCommonMarket)1991MERCOSURMercadoComundelConoSurMERCOSUR6)AndeanGroup5(CaribbeanCommunityandCommonMarket,CARICOM)1-3GDP1-3(),1995InternationalMonetaryFund101.54(GrossDirectPremiumsWritten)199521000651-4199529.729.127.41-41985~1995*1993SwissReinsuranceCo.19971-5a39.731.8141-5b41.324.2321.4199594.581.71-6InsuranceDensity(InsurancePenetration)GDPGNP111*1985~19951-519851995*1993SwissReinsuranceCo.19971-61995SwissReinsuranceCo.19971-3199578508845072372228318381497121985~1995a)SwissReinsuranceCo.(1997)b)198519951-3199532372.21366.61005.6171255.3703.2552.135146.560.685.936141.510635.541101.57625.54297.467.330.14490.174.615.54864.060.13.94961.660.11.55251.741.99.95439.125.913.26025.822.03.86321.119.21.96420.516.14.46518.215.42.86715.612.72.924507.21613.22894.042283.21068.91214.352268.4833.91434.561899.21136.1763.171809.2479.21330.081761.11221.8539.391740.4853.3887.1101694.2615.51078.7111595.31019.9575.4121557.2867.4689.8141341.2585.1756.1161304.5695.8608.7181237.7607.1630.623805.5776.928.624688.1405.7282.426674.4425.0249.427529.7300.2229.530436.3371.764.634180.192.188.037123.089.533.539111.7105.46.34392.364.727.6131()4571.265.85.44765.650.215.45059.739.919.85632.518.314.25731.921.210.7756.35.60.7783.22.40.815088.31012.54075.8151337.6295.51042.1201190.8364.7826.122813.8318.3495.525678.5219.2459.321904.4493.1411.329436.5215.3221.231220.1192.128.032181.291.989.333180.5152.028.538122.975.247.740111.297.313.94667.635.432.25155.345.79.65339.838.31.56122.319.42.96221.917.64.36616.49.37.1727.57.00.5746.41.94.5766.14.21.9773.72.11.628502.5100.6401.95534.732.32.45830.316.513.85929.323.06.36811.08.52.5699.87.91.9709.79.30.4718.26.61.6737.16.60.5131504.9690.6814.3191217.5730.8486.7SwissReinsuranceCompany1997141-47815.513.312.881-4199578.604.953.65136.573.682.89343.502.620.88373.061.271.79422.312.170.14432.291.850.44472.041.690.35511.781.730.05531.741.200.54551.721.290.43541.731.480.25611.480.980.50631.351.230.12651.240.970.27671.120.910.21720.730.620.11410.453.746.71510.333.756.5868.934.184.7588.553.145.41107.763.394.37117.401.965.44146.423.842.58175.493.511.98185.252.572.68195.042.862.18214.912.622.29224.822.841.98234.772.342.43244.653.960.69254.652.592.06264.513.131.38303.832.411.42323.723.440.28363.092.980.11382.972.800.17392.691.960.73452.151.510.64151()462.061.370.69482.021.540.48501.951.300.65581.650.840.81641.340.750.59770.450.340.11780.400.360.04213.162.9110.25312.782.5410.24155.783.152.63165.531.793.74284.282.172.11294.251.302.95313.781.861.92333.511.372.14402.431.271.16442.241.890.35492.010.601.41521.781.430.35571.691.470.22601.520.860.66621.400.860.54661.170.800.37680.990.820.17690.840.730.11700.810.460.35730.720.630.09750.570.550.02760.480.450.03115.473.1012.37204.944.600.34274.292.331.96353.332.680.65412.361.850.51561.711.590.12591.541.190.35,710.800.640.16740.670.640.0397.823.594.23127.214.332.88SwissReinsuranceCompany19971657.7801.6••••••1712345211A(NeilADoherty)F.(MartinF.Grace)2.11uncertainty100007%2-11000010700D(RichardD.Phillips)2-131000030%15%2-2312212332230050%50%85002-2EVXipiXi1000031210000107002121:1000010002:1:2:10700010000130008500:(2.1)expectedvaluerule3248n2nSt.PetersburgParadox3223322.2utilityutilityfunctionrisk-averseutilityfunction••100100100lawofdiminishingmarginalutility2-32-323i122VonNeumanMorgenstern(1994)EUexpectedutilityruleEUpiiU(Xi)Xi23EU2EU32332-4232-423U(x)=ln(x)2.24232(2.2)U(X)=ln(X)2.3premium,1500005000010%XYZXYZactuariallyfairpremium2.12-52-5EUIEUNI15000XYZ185000150000+500001500015000200000500002-5EUIEUNIexpectedutilitylineP124PQPBernoulliPrincipleMossin1968XfXfXXJensensInequalityX200000L~35L~15000002.3.1premiumloadings10%~5