基于模糊积分评估模型的林火灾害风险管理研究

272200512JOURNALOFBEIJINGFORESTRYUNIVERSITYVol.27,Supp.2Dec.,2005:200522102215http:PPjournal.bjfu.edu.cn:863(2003AA245030)(90302014)(4041002).:,.:3S.:0102262337963Email:[e-mail]:100089118.:,,,.:3S.:0102262337963Email:[e-mail]:100083111.(3S):,.,,().,,(Fuzzy2AHP),,,,.:,,,,:S762:A:1000221522(2005)22201772205YUEJin2zhu;FENGZhong2ke;JIANGWei.Riskmanagementofforestfirebasedonassessmentmodelbuiltwithfuzzyintegrationmodel.JournalofBeijingForestryUnviersity(2005)27(Supp.2)17722181[Ch,14ref.]InstituteofGIS,RS&GPS,BeijingForestryUnviesity,100083,P.R.China.Theriskmanagementofforestfiresisoneoftheimportantmeasuresandmethodsforfirefighterstoprevent,reduceandcontrolthecasualties.Theconceptoftheriskofforestfireanditsmanagementareintroducedanddiscussedinthispaper.Thecontent,indexesandmethodsforthejudgementandanalysesoftherisk,theassessmentoftheriskandtheriskcontrolarediscussedandmadeclearer.Moreemphasesareputontheanalysisandassessmentoftherisk.Usingtheassessmentmethodoftheurbanfirefightingasareferencetool,theassessmentindexsystemofriskofforestfireissetup,andafuzzyanalytichierarchyprocessforitsweightsisestablished.Thenewcorrespondingmethodsandmeasuresareprovidedfordealingwiththeforestfireriskmanagement,especiallyforriskanalysisandassessment.Keywordsriskmanagement,judgementandanalysisofrisk,fuzzyintegration,assessmentmodel,forestfiredisaster,,.,22,640hm2,0.18%.2070,,,.195070,3900,3.3,[1](12).,,.,,,.,[2].,,©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.[3].,.:,,[4].,,,.4[5]..,,,..,,..,,,.,,,..,.3,[6].,,.,.2,387127©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.[7].,;;;;[8].3FIGURE3Thesketchmapoftheforestfirespreadinganddyingout2.2,.,[9].,3,,.:,,,,.2.3,5;8;1992LY10632292,,.1990,.,,1990,1990,.3(ETA)(FTA)(AHP)(EAS)(HRA)(PHA)(HAZOPS)[10],,,,,.3.1,,,,[11](4).4FIGURE4Theforestfireriskevaluationprocedurebasedonfuzzyintegration[11](5),,6,6.,:R=f(A,B,C,D,E,F),R,A,B9712:©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.=r11r12r1nr21r22r2nrn1rn2rnnrijaiajT.R=(rij)nna1,a2,,an,1,2,,n,:6FIGURE6Theframeworkoftheforestfireriskindexevaluationrij=0.5+(i-j),i,j=1,2,3,,n.00.5,..,;,.,m,,U=1,2,,m,q,P=p1,p2,,pq.i,pj(aij,bij),i:i=12qj=1(b2ij-a2ij)Pqj=1(bij-aij)i=1,2,,m;j=1,2,,q,[11].3.3,,.,,.1993,5,.,.,.,m,:V=1,2,,j,,m,:U=1,2,,n.ji.‰A,:…A:U[0,1]u‰A(U)u‰A,‰A(u)ui‰A.,57.3.4,,.,,08127©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.[12].,,Ü(i)i,g(i)i,:=Ü(i)og()(2),Üg,.,.,,,X=1,2,,n,ii,gii(),Ü(i)(),Ü(i)[0,1].gi(i),,ii,ni=1i=1,;i,ni=1i=,ii.gi=i,:1)Üi:Ü(1)Ü(2)Ü(n),X=1,2,,n,Xi=1,2,,n,g(i)=i:2):=0,g(X)=ni=1g(i)=ni=1i=1.0,=1.0,0,g(X)=1ij=1(1+g(i))-1=1ij=1(1+i)-1=1.0,.3)H(i):H(i)=g(1)H(i)=g(i)+H(i-1)+g(i)H(i-1),i=1,2,3,,,nH(i)=1ij=1(1+g(i))-1,i=1,2,3,,,n4):=Ü(i)og()=ni=1[Ü(i)]H(i)]g(i)H(i),H(i),g(i),i=1,2,3,,n.,(-1,1).,=Ü(i)og()VFFR()ValueofForestFireRisk:VFFR()=-VFFR():VFRR()%=(-)PVFFR()VFFR()%,,.4[13],.,.,,.,,,.[1].[J].,2002(4):4226.[2]WILLIAMC.Teiefirefightershandbookonwildlandfirefighting[M].Califoria:DeerValleyPress,1994.[3][]MichelCrouhyDanGalaiRobertMark.Riskmanament[M].:,2005.[4].[M].:,1999.[5].[J].,2000(1):172218.[6].[D].:,2003.[7],.[M].:,2002.[8],.[M].:,2005.[9],.[M].:,2003.[10],,.[J].,1999(4):702273.[11].[D].:,2003.[12],.[J].,2004,14(9):292232.[13].[M].:,2004.[14].[J].,1999,8(2):172221.()1812:©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.