大型制造企业物流系统的风险管理

上海交通大学硕士学位论文大型制造企业物流系统的风险管理姓名：陈晓俊申请学位级别：硕士专业：交通运输规划与管理指导教师：赵一飞200601013200612342006123200612356RISKMANAGEMENTOFLARGEMANUFACTURINGENTERPRISES’LOGISTICSSYSTEMABSTRACTTheconceptoflogisticsisconsolidatingthosetraditionalfunctionssuchastransportation,warehousing,loadingandunloading,packagingandprocessing.However,therisksineachfunctionarenotavoided,andsomenewrisksalsoarisefromtheconsolidation.Thisthesisfocusedontheriskmanagementoflargemanufacturingenterprises’logisticssystem.Byintroducingthemodelof“LogisticsRiskCostsMinimization”,itanalyzedthemethodofdecision-makingduringtheriskmanagementoflogistics,fromtheviewofbothmanufacturingandlogisticscompanies.Asasignificantaspectofriskmanagement,thisthesisalsointroducedthetraditionalinsuranceproductsandthetrendofinnovationregardinglogisticsrisks.KEYWORDS:logistics,thethirdpartylogisticcompany,logisticsriskmanagement,logisticsinsurance91.11.1.11921.Someproblemsinmarketdistribution19791979619894200141720019220015=238010200595“”30010002000200417217.3%2004250080002004905.771.1.21.11.12001200220032004358010895708262368022111601304112421Table1.1NumberofArticlesSearchedinChinesePeriodicalWebsitebykeywordsas“LogisticsRiskManagement”,“LogisticsInsurance”,“Logistics”1.12%200582312199820041.21.3131.4142.1--------//2.1Figure2.1SimpleLogisticsSystemofManufacturingEnterprise152.12.1/2.2()()ThirdPartyLogistics,TPL2.22.2.1PriceRiskCreditRiskScottE.Harrington/GregoryR.Niehaus,200110417PureRisk(PureRisk)182.2.22.12.1√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√ISSN1007-1059219√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√√Table2.1TheLogisticsRisksListedbyLogisticsFunctions172.219967245119942175202.2Table2.2TheSituationWhenClaimforCompensationfromLogisticsCompanyisDifficult212.2.31324JIT225001002.32.3//23(JustinTime)(Y2K)(JustinTime)Table2.3TheMainRiskstoLogisticsCompanies242.3R(Pn)(Qn)1niiiRPQ==∑112.3QP2.3QP2.3Figure2.3TheExtentofRiskInfluence53%112005132520055110%11(interconnectmaterial)IC1.32005114263.13.1.1Risk1819EnterpriseRiskManagementERM205019481953812500011996PeterL.Bernstein……3.1.212121002-9753200206-0054-04273.23.2.1CLRCostofLogisticsRisksCLRCLRVEVELR=−(3.1),VE:(ValueofEnterprises);VER:(ValueofEnterpriseswithLogisticsRisks)VELRVECLR=−(3.2)(3.2)CLRCR(CostofRisks)ECLExpectedcostoflossesCLC(Costoflosscontrol)CLF(Costoflossfinancing)CIRRCostofinternalriskreductionCRUCostofresidualuncertaintyCRELCCLCCLFCIRRCRU=++++(3.3)283.1Figure3.1TheSectionsofRiskCostCLR(Costoflogisticsrisks)1ECLLExpectedcostoflogisticslossesECLLEDLLEILL=+(3.4)3.4EDLLExpecteddirectlossoflogistics,121()()...()()nniiEDLLEDLREDLREDLREDLR==+++=∑(3.5)iDLRDirectlossofRiski)i{1,2,...,}in∈E(iDLR)(ExpecteddirectlossofRiski):i()1()()()()iiiikikkEDLRDLRfDLRdDLRDLRP∞==×=×∑∫(3.6)()ifDLRikPiDLR{}()iikikPDLRDLRP=={1,2,...,}kK∈1iiDLR()ikDLRikPK2911[()]nKikikikEDLLDLRP===×∑∑(3.7)3.4EILL(Expectedindirectlossoflogistics)121()()...()()nniiEILLEILREILREILREILR==+++=∑(3.8)iILRIndirectlossofRiski)iQikiILR{}()iikikPILRILRQ==iiILR()ikILRikQECLLECLLEDLLEILL=+1111[()][()Q]nKnKikikikikikikDLRPILR=====×+×∑∑∑∑(3.9)nKCLLC(Costoflogisticslosscontrol)CLLCCLIMCLLE=+(3.10)CLIM(Costoflogisticsimprovement)CLLECostoflogisticslossevading121...UUuuCLIMCLIMCLIMCLIMCLIM==+++=∑(3.11)121...VVvvCLLECLLECLLECLLECLLE==+++=∑(3.12)∴11UVuvuvCLLCCLIMCLLECLIMCLLE===+=+∑∑(3.13){1,2,...,}uU∈{1,2,...,}vV∈uCLIMu30vCLLEvCLLFCostoflogisticslossfinancingCLSICostoflogisticsSelf-insuranceLIC(LogisticsInsuranceCost)OCLLF(Othercostoflogisticslossfinancing)CLLFCLSILICOCLLF=++(3.14)CLSICLSF(CostoflogisticsSelf-insurancefund)OCLSF(OpportunitycostoflogisticsSelf-insurancefund)CLSICLSFOCLSF=+(3.15)LICCLIP(CostofLogisticsInsurancePremium)CLI(Costoflogisticsinsuring)COC(CostofClaim)LICCLIPCLICOC=++(3.16)CLIACLI(AverageCostoflogisticsinsuring)COC()COC(CostofClaim):1121211(0,()]((),()]...((),()]...((),()]iiiiiiiiiliililiLiiLiLCOCLRLRCOCLRLRLRCOCCOCLRLRLRCOCLRLRLR−−∈∈=∈∈iLRLossoflogisticsriskii{1,2,...,}in∈iCOCiilCOCi1((),()]ililLRLR−31L,{1,2,...,}lL∈i()ilLR'ilP'ilPikP,ikQ'1[()]LilililPLRELR=⋅≈∑3.17iELRi'1()LiilillCOCCOCP=∴=⋅∑3.18'111()nnLiililiilACOCCOCCOCP===∴==⋅∑∑∑3.19'1111()nnnLiiililiiilLICCLIPACLICOCP=====++⋅∑∑∑∑3.20iCLIPiiACLIiCILRCostofinternallogisticsriskreductionCRUCostofresidualuncertainty323.13.1CLR=ECLL+CLLC+CLLF+CILR+CRUECLL=EDLL+EILLEDLLExpecteddirectlossoflogistics11[()]nKikikikEDLLDLRP===×∑∑ECLLExpectedcostoflogisticslossesEILL(Expectedindirectlossoflogistics)11[()Q]nKikikikEILLILR===×∑∑CLLC=CLIM+CLLECLIM(Costoflogisticsimprovement)1UuuCLIMCLIM==∑CLLC(Costoflogisticslosscontrol)CLLECostoflogisticslossevading1VvvCLLECLLE==∑CLLF=CLSI+LIC+OCLLFCLSI=CLSF+OCLSFCLSF(CostoflogisticsSelf-insurancefund)C