大型飞机项目风险管理研究

上海交通大学硕士学位论文大型飞机项目风险管理研究姓名：何哲申请学位级别：硕士专业：控制工程指导教师：邵惠鹤;彭小忠20090401I2008511100150,IIABSTRACTIIITRUNK-LINERPROJECTRISKMANAGEMENTSTUDYABSTRACTOn11thMay,2008,CommercialAircraftCorporationofChinawasfoundedwhichsetanofficiallaunchoftheChinesetrunk-linerprogram.Trunk-linergenerallyreferstotransportaircraftswhosetake-offweightisabove100tons,includingbothmilitaryandcommercialonesandalsolargeaircraftthatareabove150seats.Nowintheglobalmarket,onlyafewcountriessuchastheUS,fourcountriesinEuropeandRussiahavethecapabilitiesofmanufacturingtrunkliners,andonlyBoeingandAirbuscanleadtheinternationalmarket.TheTrunk-linerprogramisonthetopoftheindustrychainofmodernmanufacturingbusiness.Inmanycountries,itisseenasastrategicindustry,itsR&D,manufacturingandcommercialserviceareexpectedtoshowacountry’scomprehensivetechnologystrength,andisanindustryofstrategicimportance.Thetrunk-linerprogram,whichisastrategicnationalproject,featuressignificantlyinhigh-technology,large-scaleinvestment,andlong-periodR&Dprocess.Thusthestudyoftrunk-linerprogram’sriskmanagementhasasignificantpracticalmeaning.Riskmanagement,alsocrisismanagementisamanagementprocessthatworksontrackingandassessingoftherisksanddevelopsstrategycontrollingrisks,inordertominimizethepotentiallyavoidablerisksandcostandloss.Thisessaystartsfromthehistory,definition,compositionelementandclassificationtohelpunderstandtheriskmanagementanditsconnotation;italsosaysthatprogramriskmanagementnowisclassifiedasprogramoverallriskmanagement,continuousriskmanagementandinterfaceriskmanagementandalsothemethodsandtoolsofintegrativeprogramriskmanagement;thestudycametoconclusionsoftheABSTRACTIVcontemporaryprogramriskmanagementstudymethodsandtrends,whichareanintegrationofsystems,multi-dimensions,dynamics,fixedquantityandfixedqualityanalysistools.Thisessayputsanemphasisonthepotentialrisksunderlyinginthetrunk-linerprogram.Consideringthecurrentprogramdevelopmentcircumstancesandthehiddenproblemsinthefuture,theessayanalyzesaseriesofpotentialrisksinthedevelopmentprocesssuchasstrategicrisks,operationrisks,airworthinessrisks,technologicalrisks,capitalrisks,humanresourcesrisks,legalrisksandconfidentialrisks.BasedonthepotentialrisksandtheexperienceandlessonslearntfrombothhomeandabroadairplaneprogramsincludingBoeingandAirbus,theessaydiscussesthesolutionstotheriskcontrolstartingfromchangesinthestate’swillandmanagementorganisminnovation,experiencesfromabroadairworthinessauthorities,independentinnovationandinternationalcooperation,strengthensupplychainmanagement,humanresourcesmanagement,marketingmanagement,confidentialmanagement,legalmanagementandcostmanagement,inordertoavoidpotentialriskstoachieveprogramsuccess.Theessayfinallyproposessuggestionsondeepeningprojectstudy,buildingupdecision-supportsystem,improvingorganizations,settingmanagementregulationsandpracticepromotiontobetterservedevelopmentofthetrunklinerprogram.Keywords:ProgramManagement,riskmanagement,trunk-liner2009412009412009591802008511“”100150[1]22.119301930192919334020[2]1938195019701970201983“101”198611“”198610903PCS2.2[3][3](opportunitycost)2.32.3.12.3.242.3.32.3.42.3.5risktolerance2.3.62.3.72.3.8[4]2.452.4.110[5]2.4.2APH0.1≤≤10.01≤≤0.10≤≤0.012.4.32.4.46[6]123472.512345678[7]2.68(Enterprise-wideRiskManagementERMTotalRiskManagementTRM)(ContinuousRiskManagementCRM)(InterfaceRiskManagement)[41]3.1ERM[8]ERM(probability)(price)(preference)3PsBick-LelandJackwerthJackwerthRubinstein199693PsERM12345[9]ERM/(EDI)(EFT)(POS)[41]123J.P.11CRM3-2[42]3-2Fig.3-2ContinuousriskmanagementdiagramCRM3-1123-1CRMCRMCRMCRMCRM[11]3.3(interface)(interfacemanagement)“”13HaroldKerznerRobertoSbragia(projectmanager)(functionalmanager)Kerzner“”RobertoSbragiaRussellD.Archibald[12]153-4Fig.3-4Hallthreedimensionsstructureofinterfacemanagement4;3-5[43]3-5Fig.3-5Connectiontypesofprojectinterface163.4ERMCRMIRMNASABarneyB.Roberts(IntegratedQuantitativeRiskManagementIQRM)(Risk-basedDecisionSupportRBDS)3-6[14]183-2CRMPERT:PERT(ProbabilisticRiskAssessmentPRA)PRANASAPRAPRANASAESAPRAPRA(EventTreeAnalysisETA)(FaultTreeAnalysisFTA)PRA203.5ERMCRMIRM12341969214.14.1.1ARJ212001911ARJ212004911Boeing787JSFA380ARJ21ARJ21[16]4.1.219708“10”“10”100“10”MD8290AE100224.24.2.1(SupplyChainManagement)[46][17]702321003274774740065150015000[47]4.2.2123[18]4.324FAAEASAFAAEASA[48]FAA(EASA)FAA(EASA)FAA(EASA)FAA(EASA)FAA(JAA)ARJ21FAA[19]4.4254.4.110123456789104.4.2()2010201/877726[49]4.4.377770%11%7%11%78778750%2020“”T800[20]274.4.4()2000737-700737-7000.054.4.5[50]4.54.5.1L101128A380201062[21]4.5.2A380A38025%A3804.64.6.1[22]294.6.2123454.74.7.1[23]4.7.2304.7.3[24]4.84.8.14.8.2[25]4.9831325.1“”5.25.2.1“”[26]5.2.25.2.3335.2.4[27][28]5.2.5[29]345.3ARJ21RRJRRJ(SCAC)50ThalesMRORRJ——FAAEASA[30]5.45.55.5.1/35787/6100[31]ARJ21/1[32]25.5.2136234[33]5.5.3//37/[34]5.5.41787747[35]238787787Catia[36]7873BOEINGPARTSTANDARDSD590[37]ANMSMILNASBACBACBPSBPS39I.II.III.4255[38]406A380I.II.III.5.6415.6.1“”“”5.6.2777--777544777[39]5.742777777[40]1235.8435.8.1123455.8.21235.95.9.1445.9.212345.105.10.1400105.10.212345455.11466.16.1.16.1.26.1.36.