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46Vol.4200812ChineseJournalofUndergroundSpaceandEngineeringDec.200831,2(1.,100081;2.,200092):(FaultTreeAnalysis,FTA),,,,,,:;;;:U45:A:167320836(2008)0620991208FaultTreeAnalysisoftheCollapseRiskinRockHighwayTunnelZHOUJian2kun1,WUJian2(1.ChinaAcademyofRailwaySciences,Beijing100081,China;2.DepartmentofGeotechnicalEngineering,CollegeofCivilEngineering,TongjiUniversity,Shanghai200092,China)Abstract:Collapseisthecommondisasterduringtheconstructionofrockhighwaytunnel.Thispapersummarizedtheclassificationofcollapsecausesandthelogicconnectionsamongthem.AriskanalysismodelofrockhighwaytunnelcollapsewasestablishedbasedonanalysisoftunnelcollapseeventsbythetheoryofFaultTreeAnalysis(FTA).Atthesametime,aquantitativeanalysisofcertainhighwaytunnelintheWestChinabyFTAwasstudied,andtheprobabilityofthecollapseandcriticalimportanceofeverybottomincidentweregained.Ariskassessmentofthepotentialcausesofrockhighwaytunnelcollapsewasdoneinordertoprovidesomecorrespondingadviceandmeasuretocontrolorreducetheprobabilityofthetunnelcollapse.Keywords:rockhighwaytunnel;tunnelcollapse;FaultTreeAnalysis(FTA);riskanalysis1,,,,,,(FaultTreeAnalysis,FTA)[1](),,,,,3:2008208217():(19672),,,,,E2mail:suwenxuan839@163.com:(40772179),,,,,,,2,75%,,,,,,,,,,,2.1[2],(1),80%(2)[3],,,,,(3),,,,,,,,,(4),,,2.2(1)[4],,,,,,,,,,,,,,,(2),,,,,,,,;,,,,2.3(1),,,,,2994,,,(2),,(3),,,,,,,,,,,2.4(1),,;,(2),,(3),,,(4),,,,3,,,1,,FTA1[5]1Table1EventsandtheirsignsX01X02X03X04X05X06X07X08X09X10X11X12X13X14X15X16X17X18X19X20X21X22X23X24X25X26X27X28X29A1A2A3B1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8C1C2C3C4C5C6D1D2D3D4D5D6E1T39920086,:1FTAFig.1FlowdiagramofFTA3.1,29,2:3.23.2.129,,T,2:T=A1+A2+A3A1=B1+B2+B3=(C1+C2)C3+(C1+C2)C4+(X11+X12+X13)=(C1+C2)(C3+C4)+(X11+X12+X13)=(X01+X02+X03+X04+X05+X06+X07)(X04+X06+X08+X09+X10)+(X11+X12+X13)=X01X04+X01X06+X01X08+X01X09+X01X10+X02X04+X02X06+X02X08+X02X09+X02X10+X03X04+X03X06+X03X08+X03X09+X03X10+X04+X05X08+X05X09+X05X10+X06+X07X08+X07X09+X07X10+X11+X12+X13A2=B3+B4+B5+B6=X11+X12+X13+X14+X15+(C1+C2)(X28+C4)=X11+X12+X13+X14+X15+(X01+X02+X03+X04+X05+X06+X07)(X09+X10+X28)=X11+X12+X13+X14+X15+X01X09+X02X09+X03X09+X04X09+X05X09+X06X09+X07X09+X01X10+X02X10+X03X10+X04X10+X05X10+X06X10+X07X10+X01X28+X02X28+X03X28+X04X28+X05X28+X06X28+X07X28A3=B7+B8=(C3+X17)+(C4+X26+C5)X27=(X04+X05+X06+X17+X29)+(X11+X14+X15+X16+X18+X19+X20+X21+X22+X23+X24+X25+X26)X27=X04+X05+X06+X17+X27X29+X11X27+X14X27+X15X27+X16X27+X18X27+X19X27+X20X27+X21X27+X22X27+X23X27+X24X27+X25X27+X26X27T=A1+A2+A3=X04+X05+X06+X11+X12+X13+X14+X15+X17+X29+X01X08+X01X09+X01X10+X02X08+X02X09+X02X10+X03X08+X03X09+X03X10+X07X08+X07X09+X07X10+X01X28+X02X28+X03X28+X07X28+X16X27+X18X27+X19X27+X20X27+X21X27+X22X27+X23X27+X24X27+X25X27+X26X2736,:{X04}{X05}{X06}{X11}{X12}{X13}{X14}{X15}{X17}{X29}{X01X08}{X01X09}{X01X10}{X02X08}{X02X09}{X02X10}{X03X08}{X03X09}{X03X10}{X07X08}{X07X09}{X07X10}{X01X28}{X02X28}{X03X28}{X07X28}{X16X27}{X18X27}{X19X27}{X20X27}{X21X27}{X22X27}{X23X27}{X24X27}{X25X27}{X26X27},:(1):{X04}{X05}{X06}{X11}{X12}{X13}{X14}{X15}{X17}{X29},10,,X5X5(),,499459920086,:(2):{X01X08}{X01X09}{X01X10}{X02X08}{X02X09}{X02X10}{X03X08}{X03X09}{X03X10}{X07X08}{X07X09}{X07X10}{X01X28}{X02X28}{X03X28}{X07X28}{X16X27}{X18X27}{X19X27}{X20X27}{X21X27}{X22X27}{X23X27}{X24X27}{X25X27}{X26X27},26,{X22X27}X22()X27(),T(),:3.2.2[6]:(1)(),:I04=I05=I06=I11=I12=I13=I14=I15=I17=I29(1)(2)(),,;,;,:I27I01I02=I03=I07=I09=I10=I28I08I16=I18=I19=I20=I21=I22=I23=I24=I25=I26(2)(3)(),(),()I04=I05=I06=I11=I12=I13=I14=I15=I17=I29I16=I18=I19=I20=I21=I22=I23=I24=I25=I26(3)(),(),,:Ii=XiKj12ni-1I04=121-1=1,I27=122-110=5,I01=122-15=2.5,I02=122-14=2,I08=122-13=1.5,:I27I01I02=I03=I07=I09=I10=I28I08I04=I05=I06=I11=I12=I13=I14=I15=I17=I29I16=I18=I19=I20=I21=I22=I23=I24=I25=I26(4)9229Table2First9eventsbytheorderofimportanceofthestructureX27X01X02X03X07X09X10X28X083.3,,:PT=1-nr=11-P(Kr)=1-nr=11-xikrqi(5):i;r;Krr;k;xikrir,,CIg(i)[7]:6994CIg(i)=limqi0(PTPTqiqi)=qiPTIg(i)(6),,,3.43.4.1(1):,2478m2528m199065,19964:,40%,2000030000m3/d80120MPa5090MPa29%,,,940m,735813m,560m(2):,840m(5.5m),;,,,1.0m,,,,,,3.4.2FTA,24,[8],,35,95.601%,,43Table3CriteriaofdegreeforriskprobabilityP0.01%0.01%P0.1%0.1%P1%1%P10%P10%4,:Clg(10)Clg(01)Clg(06)Clg(02)Clg(04)Clg(09)Clg(11)Clg(28)Clg(07)Clg(15)Clg(03)Clg(14)Clg(05)Clg(12)Clg(08)Clg(27)Clg(13)=Clg(17)=Clg(29)Clg(21)Clg(23)Cg(16)=Clg(25)Clg(19)=Clg(18)=Clg(26)Clg(22)Clg(20)=Clg(24)(7)7,:X10()X01()X06()X02()X04()47:7,4,3.4.347X10()X01()X04()(1)X01()X02()X03(),,,79920086,:(2)X09()X10(),,,,,4Table4CriticalimportanceofeachbottomincidentX150%0.303X113%0.032X211.6%6.726e-5X230%0.184X120.1%0.001X221.2%5.045e-6X32%0.01X130.01%1.051e-4X230.8%3.363e-5X415%0.158X140.8%0.008X240.01%4.204e-7X50.5%0.005X151%0.011X250.8%3.363e-5X613%0.263X160.8%3.363e-5X260.4%1.682e-5X73%0.019X170.01%1.051e-4X270.4%2.245e-4X81%5.806e-4X180.4%1.681e-5X283%0.027X95%0.042X190.4%1.681e-5X290.01%1.051e-4X1050%0.445X200.01%4.204e-7(3)X04()X06(),,,4,:(1),,,,(2)29,(),,(3),,,,:[1].[D].:,2004.(WUChun2quan.Faulttreeanalysisandstudyonpressuresafetysystemo