论人口老龄化程度城乡差异的转变_杜鹏

34220103Vol134,No12March20103PopulationResearch=在中国人口老龄化过程中,农村老年人口比例日益高于城市,这是否是中国人口老龄化过程中的特有现象?本文对中国和其他国家人口老龄化过程中城乡人口老龄化的差异进行了比较研究结果表明,在人口老龄化过程中,许多国家普遍地表现出农村人口老龄化程度高于城市的特点,即城乡倒置明显进一步研究表明,人口老龄化城乡倒置只是人口老龄化过程中的一个阶段,它不会长期持续当社会经济发展达到一定水平,大规模的城乡人口迁移基本完成,城市化水平大幅提高,人口因素发生改变时,人口老龄化程度农村高于城市的城乡倒置状况将发生转变,即城市老年人口比例最终将超过农村=人口老龄化;转变模型;城乡差异=杜鹏,中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心老年学研究所教授;王武林,中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心博士研究生北京:100872TheDifferenceofUrbanandRuralAgeingandItsTransitionDuPengWangWulinAbstract:IntheprocessofpopulationageinginChina,ruralpopulationhasanincreasinglyhigherproportionofelderlythanthecities,ithasbeenwidelycitedasoneofthecharacteristicsofpopulationageinginChina.ThispapercomparedChinawithothercountriesandrevealsthatthephenomenonofhigherelderlyproportioninruralpopulationthantheurbanisuniversalintheworld.Theresearchfindingshowsthattheurban-ruralinversionofpopulationageingwillnotlastforalongtmie.Withthesocioeconomicdevelopment,large-scalerura-lurbanmigrationandurbanizationwillapproachtotheend;theproportionoftheurbanelderlywilleventuallyexceedthatintherura.lDur-ingthisprocess,thetransitionofurban-ruraldifferenceofpopulationageingwillexperiencefourphases.Inthefirstphase,theruralpopulationageingishigherthantheurban;thedifferencebe-tweenurban-ruralpopulationageingwillbeenlargedincreasingly.Thesecondphaseisthattheruralpopulationageingishigherthanurban,butthegapwillbenarrowed.Thethirdphaseisthattheur-banpopulationageingwillexceedtheruralarea,theproportionoftheurbanelderlywillbehigherthantherura.lAtthelastphase,thedifferencewillbenarrowedanddmiinishedintheend.Thetransitionmodeloftheurban-ruraldifferenceofpopulationageingmipliesthatthechallengesofur-banpopulationageingwillexceedruralaginginthenearfuture.Nevertheless,Chinashouldgivemoreprioritytoissuesofruralageinginthefirsthalfofthiscentury.Keywords:PopulationAgeing,TransitionMode,lUrbanandRuralDifferenceAuthors:DuPengisProfessor,CenterforPopulationandDevelopmentStudies&InstituteofGerontology,RenminUniversityofChina;WangWulinisPhDCandidate,CenterforPopulationandDevelopmentStudies,RenminUniversityofChina,Beijing100872,China.Emai:[e-mail]4341982,,,,,???,,,,1,?1Table1RuralandUrbanAginginSelectedCountries%地区国家(年份)人口老龄化程度(60岁及以上)城市农村农村-城市美洲墨西哥(2005)7.79.41.7加拿大(2006)18.519.51.0美国(2000)15.917.51.6亚洲中国(2000)9.710.91.2印度(2001)6.77.71.0印度尼西亚(2005)6.47.91.5日本(2005)26.230.74.5韩国(2005)10.724.513.8巴基斯坦(2005)4.95.40.5土耳其(2000)7.110.83.7泰国(2007)10.311.10.8欧洲俄罗斯(2007)16.918.31.4英国(2001)20.223.23.0葡萄牙(2001)19.823.94.1保加利亚(2007)19.532.913.4芬兰(2007)20.926.25.3荷兰(2007)19.421.52.1立陶宛(2007)19.223.03.8挪威(2001)18.521.53.0乌克兰(2007)18.524.15.6大洋洲澳大利亚(2006)17.121.14.0资料来源:根据联合国5人口统计年鉴20076数据计算UnitedNationsStatisticsDivision.DemographicYearbook2007,table7.Populationbyage,sexandurban/ruralresidence:latestavailableyear,1998-2007.October,2009.(),;,,,,?,,,,,(1)1982~2000,7.8%10.9%,3.1;,7.4%9.7%,2.3,0.8,2125,,,,1985~2000,12.4%28.1%,15.7;,8.6%22.2%,13.6,,20803.820005.9,,2021,,,,,,,2000(8.6%,8.5%),,2007(7.0%,6.5%),2,,,,,,,,,,,,;,,(,1991),,,,,,,(,2002),,,,19822000,20657,10960,52.1%;1982~19904011996~20001146(,2007)2090,,101.75,40(,2006)17.9%200543.0%,3,85%(,,,2007),2130,1400~1500,304.6(,2007),70%~80%,,6341960~19651980~1985,16~2920%,(,1988)1960~2000,,(1)1Figure1RuralAgeinginJapan资料来源:SawakoShigeto&MasayukiKashiwag.iRuralAgeinginJapan.NorthernRuralNetwork,2006;4,,,3,206021,100,,,(2)2Figure2TheTrendofRuralandUrbanAgeinginJapan资料来源:¹1960~1985年数据来自:SawakoShigeto&MasayukiKashiwag.iRuralageinginJapan.NorthernRuralNetwork,2006:4;º1990~2050年数据来自:日本農林水産省.市町村別人口N将来予測“»¨推計結果K対9k分析,2000.注:1960~1985年城市人口老龄化程度用日本全国老龄化程度代替,从现有数据来看日本全国人口老龄化程度基本与城市人口老龄化程度一致2080,,20,30(3)273Figure3TheTrendofRuralandUrbanAgeinginChina资料来源:¹1982~2000年数据来自邬沧萍,杜鹏等著.中国人口老龄化:变化与挑战.中国人口出版社,2006:174~175;º2001~2100年数据来自李本公主编.中国人口老龄化发展趋势百年预测.华龄出版社,2006:114~125,150~161,2030,,,,,,,,,4,,200586.3%,1.3,,,9.1j205015.4j,,(2),,2Table2TheDemographicIndicatorsinJapan年份人口增长率(%)出生率(j)总和生育率婴儿死亡率(j)死亡率(j)1950~19551.4523.83.0050.09.41970~19751.3319.02.1312.06.62005~2010-0.078.21.273.29.12020~2025-0.476.91.353.012.02045~2050-0.797.01.602.615.4资料来源:UnitedNations,DepartmentofEconomicandSocialAffairs,PopulationDivision:WorldPopula-tionProspects:The2008Revision.Populationdatabase,~160(,2007),20,,,,,,,,22.6%31.1%,8056726,240192606(,2006;,2000),33.65,,,,,/0,,2020,,,,32045,(4)4100Figure4TheLongRunTrendofRuralandUrbanAgeinginChina资料来源:李本公主编.中国人口老龄化发展趋势百年预测.华龄出版社.2006:114~125,150~161,,,,,,,6520251,20352,20502.5,2100,2,4800,,29,6,,,,,/0,/0(5),/S0,,/0:(AB),,,;(BC),,,;(AC)P,,(CD),,;(D),,,,,,,,(5)5/0Figure5TheTransitionalPatternofRuralandUrbanAgeingDifferenceP表示人口老龄化城乡差异转变拐点/0,,/0,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,/0,,1034,,,,,,,,/References:1曾毅.人口城镇化对我国人口发展的影响.人口学刊,1991;2:1~6ZengY.i1991.UrbanizationandItsImpactsonPopulationDevelopmentinChina.PopulationJournal2,pp1-62陈桓.东亚地区人口老龄化特征分析.南方人口,2002;1