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MassachusettsInstituteofTechnologyCambridge,Massachusetts FutureofAutomotiveBodyMaterials:Steel,Aluminum&PolymerCompositesHoogovensTechnologyDayOctober1998ProfessorJoelP.ClarkMassachusettsInstituteofTechnologyMassachusettsInstituteofTechnologyCambridge,Massachusetts IntroductionVehicleLightweightingKeyToNextGenerationProductDevelopmentImprovedEfficiency,ReducedEmissionsPerformanceImprovementIncreasedWeight&PowerConsumptionofVehicleAccessoriesActiveDiscussionOfWideRangeOfApproachesAdvancedMaterialsNewPowerplantsNovelControlSystemsPotentialForRadicalChangeInVehicles,VehicleDevelopmentandVehicleDesignMassachusettsInstituteofTechnologyCambridge,Massachusetts IsItTimeForALeapToANewVehicleTechnology?NewTechnologiesUnderDevelopment/ConsiderationUltra-LightweightVehiclesAdvancedPowertrains(hybrids,Electric,fuelcells)ComputersOnWheelsWho'sGoingToBuildTheseVehicles?CurrentProducersorNewEntrantsRecallTheCaliforniaEVStrategyAsSpecificallyDirectedTowardDevelopingANewVehicleProductionIndustryWillThatHappenThisTime?MassachusettsInstituteofTechnologyCambridge,Massachusetts HypercarsAreNotTheAnswerManufacturabilityTheKeyLimitationScaleEconomicsLimitPolymerStrategiesTechnologiesToIncreaseProcessingRatesProblematicMetalsTechnologiesBetter-SuitedToCurrentScaleRequirementsAluminumInitiativesSteelULSABNote:MaterialsProcessing,NotMerelyMaterial,IsTheKeyEnablingFactorMassachusettsInstituteofTechnologyCambridge,Massachusetts ProbablyNotHighRiskEconomicallyTenuousStrategicallyWeakSomeRadicalInnovationsShouldBePursuedButTheyShouldNotBeTheCenterpieceOfProductStrategyExamplesFromMaterialsFieldSteelVersus... ! IsRadicalInnovationTheAnswer?MassachusettsInstituteofTechnologyCambridge,Massachusetts AutomobileRecyclingTechnology&StrategicImplicationsForRecyclingPolicyIssueRisingTideofPublicandPrivateConcernsAboutObsoleteVehiclesVarietyofActionsProposed,WithVaryingConsequencesForTheIndustryFindingsNotwithstandingtheConcerns,VehicleRecyclingIsNotAMajorEnvironmentalProblemRather,TheIssues,BothHistoricallyandCurrently,StemFromEconomicDriversandtheNatureOfMarketForSecondaryProducts&MaterialsFurther,PolicyDirectionsFailToRecognizeKeyDistinctionsBetweenProductCharacteristics(Recyclability)andMarketFeatures(Recycling)ValuetoIndustryDevelopmentOfContextForDiscussionDemonstrationOfImpactOfUnderlyingStructureOfTheProblemRecommendationsForActionByIndustryAndByGovernmentsMassachusettsInstituteofTechnologyCambridge,Massachusetts ApplicationandValueOfLifeCycleAnalysisInVehicleDesign&DevelopmentIssueLifeCycleAnalysisAnEmergingAnalyticalFrameworkApplicationToDesignsInternallyPotentialForLargerContext(RegulatoryApplication)FindingsLCAIsNotAValue-FreeMethod;ContextIsVitalElementOfItsUseNevertheless,PotentialForBetterInsightIntoProduct&ProcessDecisionsMuchWorkToBeDoneValuetoIndustryDevelopmentOfArgumentToFrameQuestionOfLCAUtilityDemonstrationOfBothTheImpactOfContextAsWellAsPotentialUseOngoingDialogandDevelopmentOfBetterMethodsForIncorporationOfEnvironmentalConsiderationsInProductStrategyMassachusettsInstituteofTechnologyCambridge,Massachusetts PreferredApproachInventoryspeciessmediummlocationxtimetImpactAnalysisDose-responsegivesextentofeffectstoReceptorCellsEnvironmentalEffectsAQMgivesConc#$%(t,x)ValuationbasedonWTPDamage$%$&$’$(MassachusettsInstituteofTechnologyCambridge,Massachusetts BaseCase:ConvergenceforSteelCO2NOxSO2COC6H6C20H12H2SCdN2)F-AsH3CrZnSeSO4$0.0$0.5$1.0$1.5$2.0$2.5$3.0$3.5$ExternalitiestoAirExtractionProcessingUseMassachusettsInstituteofTechnologyCambridge,Massachusetts BaseCase:ConvergenceforAluminumCO2PAHSO2HFCuHClPbCdAsN2ONiBNH3CoV$0.0$0.5$1.0$1.5$2.0$2.5$3.0$3.5$ExternalitiestoAirExtractionProcessingUseMassachusettsInstituteofTechnologyCambridge,Massachusetts BIWDemonstrationAnalysisProblem:SelectBIWdesignKeyAssumptions:Sheetismadefrom100%primarymaterialEnd-of-Lifescrapisrecycledoncewith85%efficiency ) *! + , - ! + , - +FuelEconomy:22MPGforSteel./01 - 2 2 - -* ) -* -SteelULSABAluminumUnibodySteelSheet200kg18kgHighStrengthSteelSheet50kg185kgAlSheet141kgTOTALBIW250kg203kg141kgTOTALCar1400kg1353kg1291kgMassachusettsInstituteofTechnologyCambridge,Massachusetts BasisforComparisonLCIDatabyIKPStuttgartMaterials,Manufacturing,Use,RecyclingSeveralModificationsApplicationofXLCABaseCase$/kgSensitivityAnalysisMassachusettsInstituteofTechnologyCambridge,Massachusetts EnvironmentalDamageCostComparisonsSteelULSABAluminum0100200300400DamageCostsPerBIWToxicsCriteriaGHGsSteelULSABAluminum0100200300400DamageCostsPerBIWUseMaterialsMassachusettsInstituteofTechnologyCambridge,Massachusetts Sourcesof