建立船舶风险评估模型探讨

1IMO1993(FormalSafetyAssessment)1997IMOIMOFSAFSA()FSA:()FSA:112(TheAnalyticHierarchyPrecessAHP)1CKA1A2...AnaijCKA1A2...Aj...AnA1a11a12...a1j...a1nA2a21a22...a2j...a2nAiai1ai2...aij...ainAnan1an2...anj...ann1191357-92468AiAjaijAjAi1/aij,AiAjaij=5,aji1/5(2)2CKnA1A2...AnA1A2...AnA,Awmaxw(1)wA1A2...AnCKwA(2)∏==njijijau1(5-2)nnijiuu=(i=1,2,3,n)(3)ui(u1u2,un)Tw=∑=niiiiuu1w(4)WW1W2...WnAAAAHPCI1max−−=nnCIλ5maxλ()∑==niiinWBW1maxλ6AmaxλnCI0AmaxλnCIAmaxλnCIAnnSaatyCIRICRRICICR=(7)RIRI22RIn12345678RI0.000.000.520.891.121.261.361.41n9101112131415RI1.461.491.521.541.561.581.59ACRCR0.1A(2)0(8)11=∑=niiaia30.5240.47640.3500.65050.1810.2780.1290.41260.3120.1530.0440.1420.0480.0380.0790.20470.8020.19880.4930.2650.24290.1060.1210.3060.3470.120100.6500.350110.7800.22012()0.4470.3270.1210.105130.5830.417140.6300.370150.7150.285160.530.47170.2400.4050.1250.2303U01UU={U1,U2,U3,Un}Ui(i=1,2,3,…,n)4-1,U:V{V1V2V3…,Vm}Vj(j=1,2,3,…m)VV:V{V1V2V3…,Vm}={100,80,60,40,20}100,80,60,40,2018:18100()80()60()4020:R=(rij)nm4UV,ARBVB=RAο9U={U1,U2,U3U4}U1={U11,U12,U13U14}U2={U21,U22,U23U24U25}U12={U121,U122}au11/a11u121/a121u12/a12u122/a122u131/a131u13/a13u132/a132u1/a1u14/a14u21/a21u22/a22u231/a231u232/a232u233/a233u234/a234u235/a235u236/a236u237/a237u23/a23u238/a238u241/a241u24/a24u242/a242u251/a251u252/a252u2/a2u25/a25u253/a253u3111/a3111u311/a311u3112/a3112u3121/a3121u312/a312u3122/a3122u313/a313u31/a31u314/a314u321/a321u3/a3u32/a32u322/a322u411/a411u4/a4u41/a41u412/a412u42/a42:B(u311)=A311οR311B(u312)=A312οR312A311=(a3111,a3112)A312=(a3121,a3122):B(u12)=A12οR12B(u13)=A13οR13B(u23)=A23οR23B(u24)=A24οR24B(u25)=A25οR25B(u31)=A31οR31B(u32)=A32οR32B(u41)=A41οR41A12=(a121,a122)A13=(a131,a132)A23=(a231,a232,a233,a234,a235,a236,a237,a238)A24=(a241,a242)A25=(a251,a252,a253)A31=(a311,a312,a313,a314)A32=(a321,a322)A41=(a411,a412):B(u1)=A1οR1B(u2)=A2οR2B(u3)=A3οR3B(u4)=A4οR4A1=(a11,a12,a13,a14)A2=(a21,a22,a23,a24,a25)A3=(a31,a32)A4=(a41,a42):B=ARοA=(a1,a2,a3,a4)B'BVBvbWmkkk•==∑='1105.(PMS).,2002.(CAP).,200320042005