我国产业结构调整对经济增长的影响分析

首都经济贸易大学硕士学位论文我国产业结构调整对经济增长的影响分析姓名：陈贺申请学位级别：硕士专业：产业经济（商业）指导教师：张弘20100301IIIIIAbstractThereformandopeninguppolicybroughtChinaintofastdevelopment,achievementshaveattractedworldwideattention.ButEconomicdevelopmentalsomadetheinherentrequirementsfortheadjustmentofindustrialstructure.Inaddition,theoutbreakofthefinancialcrisisprovidedtheexternalconditions.TheadjustmentofindustrialstructureinChinahasenteredacriticalperiod.Therationalizationofindustrialstructureandadvancementwillpromoteeconomicgrowth;Economicgrowthwillalsopromotetheevolutionofindustrialstructure.Inthispaper,China'sindustrialstructureastheresearchobject,ItakeEmpiricalanalysisonchangesinChina'sindustrialstructureandexploreitsreasons;econometricanalysisofindustrialstructurefortheimpactofChina'seconomicgrowth;Andoffercorrespondingtothemeasuresandrecommendationsinaccordancewiththemainissuesofindustrialstructure.Thispaperisdividedintofiveparts.Thefirstpartistheintroduction.Elaborateresearchbackgroundandsignificance,thisresearchframeworkandthemainresearchmethods.ThesecondpartisTheories.Clearthedefinitionofindustrialstructureanditsoptimizationandupgrading,describesthemechanismofindustrialstructure’simpactoneconomicgrowthandsummarizeourcountryandothercountriesresearchresults.Inthethirdpart,IqualitativereviewofthehistoricalchangesinChina'sindustrialstructure,quantitativeanalysisitslawandpointoutitsreasons.Thefourthpart,IapplyeconometricmethodonanalysisofindustrialstructureimpactforChina'seconomicgrowth.Inthelastpart,makethecorrespondingpolicyrecommendationsonmajorissues.Keywords:Industrialstructure;Economicdevelopment;ChinaI14011.1208080200760%240GDP1.23401.3:(1)(2)(3)44022.12.1.1CPI11.(1999).:1999.15.54022.1.22...p16408032.22.2.1:3..p13740GDP410%2.34...p1584055...20098940IMAX2.42.4.110401985,67-86:,,19857..820021140919999010112.4.217167212193519409..10..11..12...2005.p61240-13613...p7113401419605119751950-19701514..p3715...p9144033.13.1.11978197819843.1.2208015403.1.32090208075%,3.23.2.119781640101520253035404550551978198019821984198619881990199219941996199820002002200420063.1%2008197828.2%198333.2%80200711.3%19901991197847.9%200748.6%41.3%,197823.9%200740.1%200217403.1%197828.247.923.9197931.347.121.6198030.248.221.6198131.946.122.0198233.444.821.8198333.244.422.4198432.143.124.8198528.442.928.7198627.243.729.1198726.843.629.6198825.743.830.5198925.142.832.1199027.141.331.6199124.541.833.7199221.843.434.8199319.746.633.7199419.846.633.6199519.947.232.9199619.747.532.8199718.347.534.2199817.646.236.2199916.545.837.7200015.145.939.0200114.445.140.5200213.744.841.5200312.846.041.2200413.446.240.4200512.247.740.1200611.348.740.0200711.348.640.1200818403.2.20.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.080.03.2%2008197870.5%200740.8%,30%197817.3%200726.8%,197812.2%200732.4%1994GDP19403.2%197870.517.312.2197969.817.612.6198068.718.213.1198168.118.313.6198268.118.413.5198367.118.714.2198464.019.916.1198562.420.816.8198660.921.917.2198760.022.217.8198859.322.418.3198960.121.618.3199060.121.418.5199159.721.418.9199258.521.719.8199356.422.421.2199454.322.723.0199552.223.024.8199650.523.526.0199749.923.726.4199849.823.526.7199950.123.026.9200050.022.527.5200150.022.327.7200250.021.428.6200349.121.629.3200446.922.530.6200544.823.831.4200642.625.232.2200740.826.832.420082040-.3.2.3-1()111111UU2140G()LG1()G2()L1L2B1B2G1+G2=G,L1+L2=L111//GGBLL=222//GGBLL=00.511.522.533.320080.519782.719842.121122403.2.41-1-0.500.511.523.42008-0.5100.53.323403.3.13.3.224403.3.325403.3.419821983-198520068632090264044.116200012(,,,)KYFXXXA=⋅⋅⋅YiXi,i=12kA1212kkdydydydydydxdxdxdAdxdxdxdA=++⋅⋅⋅++(1)Y11221122KKKKXdXXdXXdXdYyyyAxdAYYxXYxXYxXYAA∂∂∂∂=++⋅⋅⋅++∂∂∂∂(2)iiXyYx∂∂Iiβ22121012KkKdXdXdXdYYXXXββββ=++⋅⋅⋅++0β=AxdAYAA∂∂01122ln()ln()ln()ln()kkyxxxββββε=+++⋅⋅⋅++4.2EviewS6.016...20032740ADFLog(Y)Log(X1)Log(X2)Log(X3)ADFLY,LX1,LX3LX24.2ADFADF1%5%10%LY-1.06668-3.72407-2.98623-2.6326LX1-0.72502-3.68919-2.97185-2.62512LX2-0.04482-3.69987-2.97626-2.62742LX3-0.34987-3.67932-2.96777-2.62299D(LY)-3.22913-3.72407-2.98623-2.6326D(LX1)-3.44499-3.68919-2.97185-2.62512D(LX2)-2.88937-3.69987-2.97626-2.62742D(LX3)-3.46606-3.68919-2.97185-2.62512D(LY2)-3.54151-3.73785-2.99188-2.63554D(LX12)-6.40831-3.69987-2.97626-2.62742D(LX22)-4.24344-3.69987-2.97626-2.62742D(LX32)-6.01623-3.71146-2.98104-2.62991(YLogyX1LogX1X2LogX2X3LogX3LLY,LX1,LX3LX2RESIDADF-5.0750825%-2.9750Log(Y)Log(X1)2840Log(X2)Log(X3)4.3t-StatisticProb.*AugmentedDickey-Fullerteststatistic-5.0750820.0003Testcriticalvalues:1%level-3.6891945%level-2.97185310%level-2.6251211978-2007EViewsln(y)1.1200.144lnx10.568lnx20.276lnx3(3)R2=0.999728R=0.99996F=107802.9R2R0.9997280.9999699%F101291329F5%,x1x2x3yDW1.4843830.140.570.27,1%0.141%0.571%0.27GDP32-29404.2.1200819783645.21027.51745.2872.519794062.61270.21913.5878.919804545.61371.62192.0982.019814891.61559.52255.51076.619825323.41777.42383.01163.019835962.71978.42646.21338.119847208.12316.13105.71786.319859016.02564.43866.62585.0198610275.22788.74492.72993.8198712058.63233.05251.63574.0198815042.83865.46587.24590.3198916992.34265.