三网融合与IPTV的发展

20072007--88--303011IPTVIPTVIPTV20072007--88--303022••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••//••••••••••••••••••20072007--88--303033Telecomwillhavelost$14Binrevenuefromdecliningaccsslinesby2010.Recapturingthatthroughvideoisoneofthestrongestoptions,butcertainlynotaslam-dunk.-J.HurdTelecomwillhavelost$14BinTelecomwillhavelost$14Binrevenuefromdecliningrevenuefromdecliningaccssaccsslineslinesby2010.Recapturingthatthroughby2010.Recapturingthatthroughvideoisoneofthestrongestvideoisoneofthestrongestoptions,butcertainlynotaslamoptions,butcertainlynotaslam--dunk.dunk.--J.HurdJ.Hurd20072007--88--303044™Yankee5025ARPU3231.8%,19.6,48.6%™82%20%™:™™YankeeYankee50502525ARPUARPU332231.8%,31.8%,19.619.6,,48.6%48.6%™™82%82%20%20%™™::20072007--88--303055™IPTVVerizon200735AT&T18U-Verse78IPTV™2006,IPTV360102010IPTV4800130gartner™™IPTVIPTVVerizonVerizon200720073535AT&TAT&T1818UU--VerseVerse7878IPTVIPTV™™20062006,,IPTVIPTV360360101020102010IPTVIPTV48004800130130gartnergartnerIPTVIPTV20072007--88--3030660102030405060702004200520062007200820092010IPTVIPTVISuppllCorp20072007--88--303077™20075IPTV8428™2004—“IP”™“”™™2007200755IPTVIPTV84842828™™20042004——““IPIP””™™““””20072007--88--303088™™VoIP™™™™VoIPVoIP™VoIP™™™VoIPVoIP™™20072007--88--303099393920072007--88--30301010020040060080010001200140020062007200820092010IPTVIPTVISuppllCorp20072007--88--30301111IPTVIPTVAccentureAccenture2007200725.44%19.50%13.91%11.54%10.65%10.65%0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%30.00%QoS20072007--88--30301212IPTVIPTV(1)(1)™™IP™™™™IPIP20072007--88--30301313IPTVIPTV(2)(2)™DSLAMBRAS99.99%50ms™™DSLAMDSLAMBRASBRAS99.99%99.99%50ms50ms20072007--88--30301414IPTVIPTV(3)(3)™MPEG4H.2645AVSH.264$230/H.264/AVS?™™MPEG4MPEG4H.264H.26455AVSAVSH.264H.264$230$230//H.264/AVS?H.264/AVS?20072007--88--30301515™///IP/30IPTV™IP™™™//////IPIP//3030IPTVIPTV™™IPIP™™20072007--88--30301616™SMSTCP™SMSG™“”IPTV™™SMSSMSTCPTCP™™SMSSMSGG™™““””IPTVIPTV20072007--88--30301717™“”™IPTV540™IPTVIPTV™™““””™™IPTVIPTV554040™™IPTVIPTVIPTVIPTV20072007--88--30301818IPTV™,6IPTVIPTV™28IPTV16IPTV™™,,66IPTVIPTVIPTVIPTV™™2828IPTVIPTV1616IPTVIPTV20072007--88--30301919™™™™™3431™™™™™™™™™™3344331120072007--88--30302020