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,(,300071):,:,,:;;:F812.0:A:100120262(2002)0120043206X,(),,,,,,,,(),,GDPGDP()(1),GDPGDP,,,,GDP,GDP,GDP,1998,,,,(),,,,:195726.33,8.5%,8022120021JournalofTianjinUniversityofCommerceVol.22No.1Jan.2002X:2001210215:(1951-),,,,,(2)11993-199919931994199519961997199819994348.955218.106242.207407.998651.149875.9511444.08()ö12.611.210.710.911.612.614.0GDP(%)ö4.926.4710.715.385.677.347.15GDP(%):19971998,GDP,,19971996,19981999:.2000.,2001..21957196519751983198719911992()26.3375.56251.48967.682028.803243.303854.9219933199431995319963199731998319993()1432.541862.532406.503893.342826.063082.293570.55:1993-1996,;1997,,198050%9090%1997,,94.9%,,,,,,,,,,,(),(3),,31993-199919931994199519961997199819994642.305792.626823.727937.559233.5610798.1813187.63()24.124.817.816.316.316.922.1(%),,,,198066.8,6.14%;19961041,14.5,5.5;1993-19971000,60%,,10003700(),4000,1ö30,,()1979,1985,,90,(4),(GDP)(3%4%)442002,,,,,,,,,,1996,927.63;,,,,,,41994-1999199419951996199719981999()574.5581.5529.5582.4922.21743.6öGDP(%)1.230.990.780.7791.182.13(%)9.928.526.676.738.513.2:(),199911.3%15.3%19.5%,25%20%100%,19991366.50151.80,91,,(),,,199813.6%,,,,,,,,,:,,(50%),,,901990,525.45,90,,,1001994,1000,,,19991518.30(),,:,,,,,;,,,:2234,745,16.9%;,3.8,84.4%2000,,199926.7%,,,,70%,,541,:;,,,,,,:,1998,2700,,,19985%8%,120014001999,5752000,657,,,(),,,,,,:(1);(2),;(3),,(),,,,,(),,,,,,,,,,,,()(),,,,,,,,,,,,1998,,,,,,,,,,642002,,,,,,,(19987.8%19997.1%,20008.0%),,,2000,(),60%90,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,2,,1998,,,(),,640,,,:(1),,,,,,(2),640,62,63.34(3)45,2.29(4),,,,,(),,,,,1998,,,:(1)1999,,,199910,MoM1M2199815.7%741,:15.1%14.5%,(2),,(3),,,1997,,,1998900,60%,8211%,80%99%25%,50%79%40%,50%22%,,1999,,,2000,,,:28,,,,199364.1%19975.8%,1999(3.5%),,,4,,1,1800,28,25,2055:[1]BlejerMI,MinassianT.MacroeconomicDimensionsofPublicFinance[M].USA:ROUTLEDGE,1997.[2]EastaughSR.FacingTouchChoices[M].USA:PRAEGER,1994.[3].[M].:,1998.[4]C.[M].:,1999.[5],.[M].:,1989.[6].[M].:,2000.AnalysisontheFiscalPolicyRisksinChinaZHANGZhi2chao,GUOLing(DepartmentofInternationalEconomicsandTrade,NankaiUniversity,Tianjin300071,China)Abstract:Thepaperexploresallpossiblefiscalpolicyrisksaftermakingananalysisonthemaincharacteristicsofourgovernment’slatestfiscalactivitiesandtheeffectofourpositivefiscalpolicies.Italsointroducescommonprinciplesofpolicyriskscontrol.Onthebasisoftheabove,thearticlepointsoutthatthegovernmentcan’timplementdiscretionaryfiscalpolicywhoseaimisaggregatedemandmanagementwithoutanyrisks.Butaslongasthegovernmentadherestoscientificregulationsofbudgetmanagementstrictlyandorganizesitsfiscalactivitiescarefully,thenitisstillpossibletoavoidandeliminaterisks.Keywords:publicfinance;fiscalpolicy;policyrisks()842002