204()Vo.l20No.4200710JournalofYantaiUniversity(NaturalScienceandEngineeringEdition)Oct.2007:10048820(2007)04030405:20070131:(2005124).:(1965),,,,,:.梁爱萍,张涛,刘伟(,264005):对烟台市四十里湾海域2004-2006年5-10月的水文气象表底层的水质底质贝类及赤潮生物的实际观测与监测数据进行计算统计分析,总结出在四十里湾海域生物化学水文条件已具备的情况下,利用海域气象因子的变化特征预报赤潮发生的方法为:当海域春夏秋季,雨水充沛,降雨过后的5-7d,天气一直晴朗光照充足风向为NE平均风速稳定在2-5ms-1日气温稳定在23以上表层水温较常年偏高1-2,且日变化值大多稳定在0.4-0.8之间,可预报海域将发生赤潮.:四十里湾;赤潮;预报:X55:A,,,,,,,20km,.,19921994199519961998.20043:55-520,25.7km2;98-914,48.8km2;926-108,13.27km2.20056-10,,110km2,81040..,,.,,,:;,;,DOCODpHNP;,a;[1-10].,,.,,,,,.,,,,,.11.1第4期梁爱萍,等:烟台市四十里湾海域赤潮预报方法研究.2004-2006,7-15m,6,5-102,.1.2.1.3.22.12.1.1.,,.,,,,,.2.1.2,.,[11].[12].(1983)[13]:EI=CODDINDIP1064500,:EI;COD(mg/L);DIN;DIP(mg/L).EI1,;EI1,;EI,.,,EI1,(1).,DIN/DIP.12004-20065-10EITab.1SeawaterovernutritionindexoftheSishiliBayfromMaytoOctober2004-2006EI200420052006580.070.140.035240.040.320.106130.430.170.226260.080.050.437120.050.270.297260.410.090.44890.080.210.298230.250.160.079120.400.190.599250.310.220.51.2050,,70,80,.,6000hm2,.,,[14],.,,..,DIN/DIP,.2.1.3,1.66m,;2004-200619983-4305烟台大学学报(自然科学与工程版)第20卷,;,,[14].,,,(5-7d).,,,,.2.2,;,.,,.,.2004-20065-10,20042005(5-7d),1-2(2),,,0.4-0.8.[5].20069,,,(2).2.3[15-16].2004-20065-10,(5-7d),2-5ms-1,NE(3),,.20042005,,,,,DIN/DIP.DINDIP,DIPDIN,DIN/DIP.,DIN/DIP8-11,24-35.5-7d,,23(3),,,.,,DIN/DIP.22004-20065-10Tab.2SurfacewatertemperatureaverageoftheSishiliBayonredtideprophaseandredtideperiodfromMaytoOctober2004-2006/2004200520065213.7(3)12.612.351816.8()14.714.16317.520.3(5)17.462620.522.9()20.082624.125.2(3)23.29326.4(5)25.2()26.791224.9()25.5()23.292224.6(4)25.1()23.710624.3()24.7()23.2306第4期梁爱萍,等:烟台市四十里湾海域赤潮预报方法研究32004-20065-10Tab.3ThemeteorologicalvariationoftheSishiliBayfromMaytoOctober2004-2006/ms-1/2004-05-02NE5.123.232004-08-26SE4.526.52004-09-03NE2.427.852004-09-19SE5.926.12004-09-22SE4.025.842005-06-06NE4.924.92005-06-08SE2.425.352005-08-24E4.727.92005-08-27NE2.128.022005-09-11SE2.126.52006-05-08S7.816.82006-06-13SE9.420.52006-08-23NE3.828.42006-09-12NE3.226.22006,(23),,5ms-1,(3);23,2-5ms-1,,;,84%,,DINDIP.,199319971999-2003.,,,.3,;,;,,.,,,,,.:,,5-7d,NE2-5ms-1231-2,0.4-0.8,.,,,,.DIN/DIP,.:[1]ZhuMY,LiRX,MuXY,eta.lHarmfulalgalbloomsinChinaseas[J].OceanResearch,1997,19(2):173-184.[2]HughW,FriedrichR.Towardsageneticartificialneuralnetworkmodelfordynamicpredictionofalgalabundanceinfreshwaterlakes[J].EcologicalModelling,2001,307烟台大学学报(自然科学与工程版)第20卷146:69-84.[3]MartinJH,FitzwaterSE.Irondeficiencylimitsphytoplanktongrowthinthenortheastpacificsubarctic[J].Nature,1988,331:341-343.[4]FukujusTT,KawayokeT.StatisticalanalysisoffreshwaterredtideinJapanesereservoirs[J].WatSciTech,1998,37(2):203-210.[5],.[J].,1997,28(5):468-474.[6],,.pH[J].,2001,32(1):15-18.[7].[J].,2001,20(1):27:31-35.[8],,,.[J].,2000,22(4)125-129.[9],,,.[J].:,2003,33(2):257-263.[10],.[J].,1993,12(2):37-38.[11].[M].:,2003:6,79.[12]HeckyRE.Nutrientlimitationofphytoplanktoninfreshwaterandmarineenvironments:areviewofrecentevi-denceontheeffectsofenrichment[J].LimnologyandOceanography,1998,33:796-822.[13],,,.[J].,1983,2(2):41-55.[14],,,.[J].,2001(3):159-167.[15],,,.[J].,2006(2):9-19.[16],.[J].,2002(5):1-5.RedTideForcastingMethodforYantaiSishiliBayWatersLIANGAiping,ZHANGTao,LIUWei(SchoolofEnvironmentandMaterialEngineering,YantaiUniversity,Yantai264005,China)Abstrac:tFromMaytoOctoberin2004-2006,theconcerningfactorsofredtideintheSishiliBay,suchashydrometeorology,surfaceandfloormarinewaterquality,seabedquality,shellsandorganismsaresurveyedandmonitored,andthestudydataareanalysedstatistically.Providedthatthethreepreconditionsoforganisms,chemistryandhydrologycoexistattheSishiliBayseaareabyutilizingthechangesofmeteorologicalfactors,redtideofthewaterscanbeforcasted.Themethodisasfollows:atspring,summerorautumntime,rainwaterisabundantand5-7daysafterraining,skyremainsclearandsunshineismuch,directionofwindisNE,averagewindvelocityisabout2-5ms-1,dayairtemperatureisabove23,surfacewatertemperatureisoften1-2higherthanthatofroutinetime,andtheeverydaychangevalueismostlywithin0.4-0.8,redtidewilltakeplaceatthewaters.Keywords:theSishiliBay;redtide;forcast()308