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上海交通大学硕士学位论文政府投资项目代建风险管理研究姓名：李智明申请学位级别：硕士专业：项目管理指导教师：许淑君;贾宗元20080501IIIGOVERMENTINVESTMENTPROJECTSCONSTRUCTIONAGENTRISKSMANAGEMENTABSTRACTThispaperanalyzedthecontentsofthebuilding,thecharacteristicsoftheConstructionAgentSystem,theperformanceoftheconstructionrisktheriskcharacteristics.Intheliteraturecollectionandworkonthebasisofpractice,drawonthecurrentgenerationofadvancedriskmanagementbuilt,thebuildingshowingaproactiveriskmanagement,modular,collaborativeandintelligentfeaturesoftheprocess.Then,onbehalfofrisksinconstructionandbuiltbeforetheriskofidentification,andthehelpofRBSRiskBreakdownStructureoftheprojectandconstructionrisksdecomposition;furtherbuildonthequalitativeandquantitativeriskanalysis,riskanalysis,basedonthestageRiskofearly-warningmechanism;Finally,whentheriskofpapersontheincidentandfuturegenerationstobuildriskissues,proposedprojectsshouldbedevelopedandbuilttheriskresponseplans,andthereareplanstoimplementriskaversion,risktransfer,riskmitigation,acceptanceorinsuredrisk,suchasresponsemeasures.Notonlythat,wemustalsoimprovethesustainabilityoftheconstructionriskmanagement,riskmanagementreportssubmittedtoupdatetheprojectriskmanagementplanandrichlibraryofknowledgeandcase.Atthesametime,itisalsonecessaryforthepresentriskmanagementreview,inordertofindproblemsandmakethesuccessoftheprojecttoprovidemethods.KeywordsGovernmentinvestmentprojects,constructionagentsystem,constructionagentrisks,riskmanagement2008510††20085102008510-1-1.180123420902002200614732-2-1.21.2.1[1][2][3][4][5]1.2.2-3-[6][7]/[8][9][10][11][12]1.2.3(RiskManagement)(JamescCristy)(FundamentalsofRiskManagement)CArthurWilliamsJrRichardMHeinsRiskmanagementandinsurance1964JerrySRosenbloomAcasestudyinRiskmanagement1972[13]PMI1992PRAM-4-[14][15][16][17][18][19]SWOT[20][21][22][23][24]1.3[25]-5-1.41-1-6-1-1RBS1-1Riskit--72.12004716[2004]20,1234--82-1PMCProjectManagementContract2.22.2.12-2////2-1--91234122-2--10342~42.2.212/342.2.3PMA--112.2.42.2.512TQC--1231993“”45PMI2.3[2004]300--1320%160%12345()502000(2000)()5002(),3--144()10-30%()5—105376--152.42.4.11756JamesDodson1921EH.Knight1964123--162.4.2PMI[26][27][28]2.52.5.1[29]1IT2--17342.5.2122-3--1834562-3--192.5.3PRI19921knownsknown-unknownsunknown-unknowns2scoperisksqualityrisksscheduleriskscostrisks3419952-1--202-1/--213.13.1.1Enterprise-wideRiskmanagement,ERMERM12343.1.2ContinuousriskManagement,CRM*2090CRM--223-1CRM3-13-1CRMCRMCRM3-1--233.1.3NASABarneyB.RobertsIntegratedQuantitativeRiskManagement,IQRM3-23.2IT3-33.2.1Boston3-2123451234--243.2.2123451234123412341233-3--253.2.33.2.4IT3.3123432145673-4--263.43.4.11234563.4.212345678--274.14.1.1123Triggers,PMBOK4-1--284.1.21234WBSWorkBreakdownStructure123412341234-1--2954.1.34-14-1--304.1.41232070456--3174.1.51WBSWBSRBSRiskBreakdownStructureWBSRBSRBSRBSWBS2RBS123412--32343RBSRBSWBSRBS112WBS342RBS3RBSRBS()WBSRBSRBS--33RBSRBSRBS4-2RBSRBS4-2RSB1111111211111131121112211231121124113111321131133114111421111411431211121212112131221122212212231231123212341121231235--344.24.2.1PMBOK1)2)3)4)4.2.210.10.30.50.70.94-3--350.54-30.10.30.50.70.95%5~10%10~20%20%5%5~10%10~20%20%24-44-40.90.090.270.450.630.810.70.070.210.350.490.560.50.050.150.250.350.450.30.030.090.150.210.270.10.010.030.050.070.090.10.30.50.70.910.09--3620.09~0.4530.45123MonteCarlo--374.34.3.14.3.2123--384.3.31231RiskitMarylandRiskitRiskitanalysisgraph4-2riskfactorriskeventriskreactionriskeffectutilityloss--3924-3fiCfiP4-34-2Riskit--405.15.1.112345675.1.25-11--415-15-12123--424-3455.2--435.2.15-15.2.215-1--44235.35-2125-2--45345675-25-2/1212312412512--46--47[1];20050263-65[2]200521[3]200514[4],200312[5]20052[6]200512278[7][8]20058[9]2005685[10]=11399[11]20062[12]BP20076[13][14]PRAMPMI1992[15]20045[16]200493[17]20043[18]2005151[19]20041--48[20]20071[21]20073[22]20073[23]20071[24]19919[25]200412244[26]PMBOK2004127[27][28]=17435[29]Lee,JCS;TheImportanceofProjectManagementinManagementContract[M];;1987[30]MatthiasBrandt,MarkusNick;Conputer-supportedReuseofProjectManagcmentExperiencewithanExpcrienceBaceIMI,[M];;2001[31]MarciodcOBarros,ClaudiaMLVcrne,GuilhermeHTravassos,ProjectManagemcntKnowledgeReusethroughSccnarioModcls[M].[M];;2002[32]Graham,Richard;ManagingtheprojectmanagementprocessinAerospaceandConstruction:acomparativeapproach[M];InternationalJournalofProjectManagement;1999[33]DonaldSBarrie,andBoydCPaulson,Jr;ProfessionalConstructionManagement[J].[M];JournalofTheConstructionDivision;1976--49Z0502621--501/20051062//2008155167政府投资项目代建风险管理研究作者：李智明学位授予单位：上海交通大学相似文献(10条)1.期刊论文严玲.尹贻林.YanLing.YinYilin基于治理的政府投资项目代建制绩效改善研究-土木工程学报2006,39(11)政府投资项目在我国经济生活中发挥着重要作用.在政府投资项目行政代理制度下,项目管理绩效不高,导致项目绩效也不佳.国内推行的政府投资项目代建制管理模式就是针对行政代理制度下的弊端展开的一项改革措施.研究围绕国内推行的代建制改革是否有效,如何改善代建制绩效而展开.在项目治理的新范式和研究框架下,探讨了不同时期我国政府投资项目治理模式演变和企业型代建制下的项目所有权配置,建立了相应的代建制治理水平初步评价指标,在此基础上从制度层面对政府投资项目代建方案进行了设计.研究结果表明,我国代建制发展方向为企业型代建,对该代建模式下所形成的治理结构的改善需要通过内部治理和外部治理以及政府监督机制等三个途径实现.2.学位论文郑建军代建制模式下政府投资项目管理研究2006政府投资项目管理改革是目前我国建设工程体制改革的一个重要任务，由于政府投资项目占固