世界核工业的发展的现状及趋势



TheWorldNuclearIndustryStatusReport2009WithParticularEmphasisonEconomicIssuesByMycleSchneiderIndependentConsultant,MycleSchneiderConsulting,Paris(France)ProjectCoordinatorSteveThomasProfessorforEnergyPolicy,GreenwichUniversity(UK)AntonyFroggattIndependentConsultant,London(UK)DougKoplowDirectorofEarthTrack,Cambridge(USA)ModelingandAdditionalGraphicDesignJulieHazemannDirectorofEnerWebWatch,Paris(France)Paris,August2009CommissionedbyGermanFederalMinistryofEnvironment,NatureConservationandReactorSafety(Contractn°UM0901290)


About
the
Authors

MycleSchneiderisanindependentinternationalconsultantonenergyandnuclearpolicybasedinParis.HefoundedtheEnergyInformationAgencyWISE-Parisin1983anddirectedituntil2003.Since1997hehasprovidedinformationandconsultingservicestotheBelgianEnergyMinister,theFrenchandGermanEnvironmentMinistries,theInternationalAtomicEnergyAgency,Greenpeace,theInternationalPhysiciansforthePreventionofNuclearWar,theWorldwideFundforNature,theEuropeanCommission,theEuropeanParliament'sScientificandTechnologicalOptionAssessmentPanelanditsGeneralDirectorateforResearch,theOxfordResearchGroup,andtheFrenchInstituteforRadiationProtectionandNuclearSafety.Since2004hehasbeeninchargeoftheEnvironmentandEnergyStrategieslectureseriesfortheInternationalMScinProjectManagementforEnvironmentalandEnergyEngineeringProgramattheFrenchEcoledesMinesinNantes.In1997,alongwithJapan'sJinzaburoTakagi,hereceivedtheRightLivelihoodAward,alsoknownasthe“AlternativeNobelPrize”.AntonyFroggattworksasindependentEuropeanenergyconsultantbasedinLondon.Since1997AntonyhasworkedasafreelanceresearcherandwriteronenergyandnuclearpolicyissuesintheEUandneighboringstates.HehasworkedextensivelyonEUenergyissuesforEuropeanGovernments,theEuropeanCommissionandParliament,environmentalNGOs,commercialbodiesandmedia.HehasgivenevidencetoinquiriesandhearingsintheParliamentsofAustria,GermanyandtheEU.HeisaparttimeseniorresearchfellowattheRoyalInstituteofInternationalAffairs–ChathamHouseinLondon.Mr.FroggattworksintensivelywithenvironmentalgroupsacrossEurope,particularlyonenergymarketsandpolicyandhelpedtoestablishanetworkonenergyefficiency.Heisaregularspeakeratconferences,universitiesandtrainingprogramsacrosstheregion.PriortoworkingfreelanceAntonyworkedfornineyearsasanuclearcampaignerandco-coordinatorforGreenpeaceInternational.SteveThomasisProfessorforenergypolicyatthePublicServicesInternationalResearchUnit(PSIRU),UniversityofGreenwich,wherehehasbeenseniorresearchersince2001.Mr.ThomasholdsaBSc(honors)degreeinChemistryfromBristolUniversityandhasbeenworkinginenergypolicyanalysissince1976.Hismainresearchinterestsarereformsofenergyindustries,economicsandpolicytowardsnuclearpower,andcorporatepoliciesofenergyindustrycompanies.RecentclientsincludePublicServicesInternational,theEuropeanFederationofPublicServiceUnions,theNonproliferationPolicyEducationCenter(USA),Energywatch(UK)andGreenpeaceInternational.DougKoplowfoundedEarthTrackin1999tomoreeffectivelyintegrateinformationonenergysubsidies.Forthepast20years,Mr.KoplowhaswrittenextensivelyonnaturalresourcesubsidiesfororganizationssuchastheGlobalSubsidiesInitiative,theNationalCommissiononEnergyPolicy,theOrganisationforEconomicCooperationandDevelopment,theUnitedNationsEnvironmentProgramme(UNEP),Greenpeace,theAlliancetoSaveEnergy,andtheUSEnvironmentalProtectionAgency.Hehasanalyzednumerousgovernmentprogramsandmadeimportantdevelopmentsinsubsidyvaluationtechniques.Mr.KoplowholdsanMBAfromtheHarvardGraduateSchoolofBusinessAdministrationandaBAineconomicsfromWesleyanUniversity.

Contacts

MycleSchneiderPhone:[phone]Email:[e-mail]:[phone]E:[e-mail]Ph:[phone]Ph:[phone]E:[e-mail]:
[e-mail]

M.
Schneider,
S.
Thomas,
A.
Froggatt,
D.
Koplow

















World
Nuclear
Industry
Status
Report
2009








2
Contents
Executive
Summary
and
Conclusions..................................................................................................................5
I.
Introduction.............................................................................................................................................................8
II.1.
Overview
of
Operation,
Power
Generation,
Age
Distribution......................................8
II.2.
International
Nuclear
Expansion
Scenarios.....................................................................12
II.3.
Overview
of
Current
New­build............................................................................................14
II.4.
Overview
of
Potential
Newcomer
Countries....................................................................21
II.5.
Status
and
Trends
in
Nuclear
Manufacturing
Capacities.............................................27
II.6.
Status
and
Trends
in
Nuclear
Competence.......................................................................30
III.
Economic
Analysis.................................................................................