TheWorldNuclearIndustryStatusReport2009WithParticularEmphasisonEconomicIssuesByMycleSchneiderIndependentConsultant,MycleSchneiderConsulting,Paris(France)ProjectCoordinatorSteveThomasProfessorforEnergyPolicy,GreenwichUniversity(UK)AntonyFroggattIndependentConsultant,London(UK)DougKoplowDirectorofEarthTrack,Cambridge(USA)ModelingandAdditionalGraphicDesignJulieHazemannDirectorofEnerWebWatch,Paris(France)Paris,August2009CommissionedbyGermanFederalMinistryofEnvironment,NatureConservationandReactorSafety(Contractn°UM0901290) About the Authors MycleSchneiderisanindependentinternationalconsultantonenergyandnuclearpolicybasedinParis.HefoundedtheEnergyInformationAgencyWISE-Parisin1983anddirectedituntil2003.Since1997hehasprovidedinformationandconsultingservicestotheBelgianEnergyMinister,theFrenchandGermanEnvironmentMinistries,theInternationalAtomicEnergyAgency,Greenpeace,theInternationalPhysiciansforthePreventionofNuclearWar,theWorldwideFundforNature,theEuropeanCommission,theEuropeanParliament'sScientificandTechnologicalOptionAssessmentPanelanditsGeneralDirectorateforResearch,theOxfordResearchGroup,andtheFrenchInstituteforRadiationProtectionandNuclearSafety.Since2004hehasbeeninchargeoftheEnvironmentandEnergyStrategieslectureseriesfortheInternationalMScinProjectManagementforEnvironmentalandEnergyEngineeringProgramattheFrenchEcoledesMinesinNantes.In1997,alongwithJapan'sJinzaburoTakagi,hereceivedtheRightLivelihoodAward,alsoknownasthe“AlternativeNobelPrize”.AntonyFroggattworksasindependentEuropeanenergyconsultantbasedinLondon.Since1997AntonyhasworkedasafreelanceresearcherandwriteronenergyandnuclearpolicyissuesintheEUandneighboringstates.HehasworkedextensivelyonEUenergyissuesforEuropeanGovernments,theEuropeanCommissionandParliament,environmentalNGOs,commercialbodiesandmedia.HehasgivenevidencetoinquiriesandhearingsintheParliamentsofAustria,GermanyandtheEU.HeisaparttimeseniorresearchfellowattheRoyalInstituteofInternationalAffairs–ChathamHouseinLondon.Mr.FroggattworksintensivelywithenvironmentalgroupsacrossEurope,particularlyonenergymarketsandpolicyandhelpedtoestablishanetworkonenergyefficiency.Heisaregularspeakeratconferences,universitiesandtrainingprogramsacrosstheregion.PriortoworkingfreelanceAntonyworkedfornineyearsasanuclearcampaignerandco-coordinatorforGreenpeaceInternational.SteveThomasisProfessorforenergypolicyatthePublicServicesInternationalResearchUnit(PSIRU),UniversityofGreenwich,wherehehasbeenseniorresearchersince2001.Mr.ThomasholdsaBSc(honors)degreeinChemistryfromBristolUniversityandhasbeenworkinginenergypolicyanalysissince1976.Hismainresearchinterestsarereformsofenergyindustries,economicsandpolicytowardsnuclearpower,andcorporatepoliciesofenergyindustrycompanies.RecentclientsincludePublicServicesInternational,theEuropeanFederationofPublicServiceUnions,theNonproliferationPolicyEducationCenter(USA),Energywatch(UK)andGreenpeaceInternational.DougKoplowfoundedEarthTrackin1999tomoreeffectivelyintegrateinformationonenergysubsidies.Forthepast20years,Mr.KoplowhaswrittenextensivelyonnaturalresourcesubsidiesfororganizationssuchastheGlobalSubsidiesInitiative,theNationalCommissiononEnergyPolicy,theOrganisationforEconomicCooperationandDevelopment,theUnitedNationsEnvironmentProgramme(UNEP),Greenpeace,theAlliancetoSaveEnergy,andtheUSEnvironmentalProtectionAgency.Hehasanalyzednumerousgovernmentprogramsandmadeimportantdevelopmentsinsubsidyvaluationtechniques.Mr.KoplowholdsanMBAfromtheHarvardGraduateSchoolofBusinessAdministrationandaBAineconomicsfromWesleyanUniversity. Contacts MycleSchneiderPhone:+33-1-69832379Email:mycle@orange.frAntonyFroggattPh:+44-20-79230412E:a.froggatt@btinternet.comSteveThomasDougKoplowPh:+44-2083319056Ph:+1-617-6614700E:stephen.thomas@greenwich.ac.ukE: dkoplow@earthtrack.net M. Schneider, S. Thomas, A. Froggatt, D. Koplow World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2009 2 Contents Executive Summary and Conclusions..................................................................................................................5 I. Introduction.............................................................................................................................................................8 II.1. Overview of Operation, Power Generation, Age Distribution......................................8 II.2. International Nuclear Expansion Scenarios.....................................................................12 II.3. Overview of Current Newbuild............................................................................................14 II.4. Overview of Potential Newcomer Countries....................................................................21 II.5. Status and Trends in Nuclear Manufacturing Capacities.............................................27 II.6. Status and Trends in Nuclear Competence.......................................................................30 III. Economic Analysis.................................................................................