气候变化自然风险评估工作介绍

气候变化自然风险评估工作介绍PresentationonPhysicalImpactsWork•YinlongXU（许吟隆）•InstituteofEnvironmentandSustainableDevelopmentinAgriculture•ChineseAcademyofAgriculturalSciences(CAAS)•Beijing,China•中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所•Tel:[phone];Tel&Fax:[phone]•E-mail:[e-mail]•3Mar.2010AdaptingtoClimateChangeinChina:China-UK-SwissPartnership内容Content•工作进展Progress•国家层面工作计划National-levelworkplan•地方层面工作计划Province-levelworkplan•未来工作Futurework工作进展Progress国家层面工作计划National-levelworkplan•农业（中国农业科学院）Agriculture(CAAS)•草地畜牧业（中国农业大学）Grassland-livestock(CAU)•水资源（南京水利科学研究院）Waterresources(NHRI)农业（中国农业科学院）：Agriculture(CAAS)（1）已经发生的气候变化影响的评价PhaseⅠ:Currentimpactandassessmentonclimatechange目标1：气候变化历史影响的检测Objective1:Detectthehistoricalimpactofclimatechange.目标2：分析已经发生的气候变化与农业气象灾害损失、水资源、种植制度调整的关系Objective2:Analyzetherelationshipbetweenclimatechangeswhichhadhappenedandthelossofagro-meteorologicaldisasters,waterresources,croppingsystems.目标3：评估已经采取的适应气候变化措施Objective3:Assessadaptationmeasureswhichhavebeentakentoadapttoclimatechangeinthepast.目标4：农业灾害风险处置措施评价及选择Objective4:Assessmentandadoptionofagriculturaldisasterriskdisposalmeasures.目标5：评估农业对已发生气候变化影响的脆弱性Objective5:Evaluatethevulnerabilityaboutimpactofagricultureonclimatechange.（2）未来影响的评估PhaseⅡ:Impactandassessmentforthefuture目标1：评估模型的验证Objective1:ValidationofAssessmentModel.目标2：未来气候变化条件下中国种植区域与主要作物种植界限的变化及种植结构调整战略Objective2:Undertheconditionsofclimatechangeinthefuture,thechangesincropplantingareaandmaincropsplantingboundariesandthestrategyofplantingstructuraladjustmentinChina.目标3：未来气候变化对中国主要粮食作物的影响评估Objective3:AssessmentthatclimatechangeinthefutureimpactsonmajorfoodcropsinChina.目标4：风险与脆弱性评估Objective4:Assessmentonriskandvulnerability.目标5：农业灾害风险管理措施评估及建议Objective5:Assessmentandpropositionondisposalmeasuresofagriculturaldisasterrisk.（3）适应措施和政策建议PhaseⅢ:Adaptationandpolicyrecommendations目标1：我国农业适应气候变化空间区域划分Objective1:SpacedivisionaboutagriculturaladaptationtoclimatechangeinChina.目标2：技术清单编制Objective2:Preparationoftechnical-list.目标3：农业适应气候变化的政策建议Objective3:Policyrecommendationsaboutagriculturaladaptationtoclimatechange.目标4：省级适应框架的完善Objective4:Completetheadaptationframeworkofprovinciallevel.草地畜牧业（中国农业大学）Grassland-livestock(CAU)目标1：气候变化对草地畜牧业影响的检测Objective1Detectingtheimpactofclimatechangeongrasslandandlivestockhusbandry.目标2：全国层面的草地畜牧业气候变化影响评估模型校验Objective2:Modeldevelopmentforassessmentoftheeffectsofclimatechangeonpasturelivestockproductionnationwide.目标3：未来气候对草地畜牧业的影响与风险评估Objective3:Assessmentofriskoffutureclimateonpasturelivestockproduction.目标4：提出草地畜牧业适应气候变化的国家战略和对策Objective4:Providenationalstrategiesofadaptationtoclimatechangeinpasturelivestockproduction.水资源（南京水利科学研究院）Waterresources(NHRI)目标1：完善全国层面的分布式气候变化对水资源影响评估模型Objective1:ConsummateChina-wideassessmentmodelforclimatechangeimpactonwaterresources目标2：检测气候变化对典型流域实测径流量变化的影响，综合分析过去适应极端干旱、洪涝灾害的经验Objective2:Detecttheeffectofclimatechangeonactualmeasurementofstreamflowintypicalwatershed;comprehensivelyanalyzetheexperienceofpastadaptingtoextremedroughtandfloods目标3：气候变化对未来水资源的可能影响评估Objective3：AssessthepotentialimpactofclimatechangeonfuturewaterresourcesoverChina目标4：水利适应气候变化的国家战略和对策Objective4:Addressnationaladaptationstrategyofwaterindustrytoclimatechange.地方层面工作计划Province-levelworkplan•宁夏Ningxia农业Agriculture水资源WaterResources适应技术示范Adaptationcasestudy•内蒙InnerMongolia草地畜牧业Grassland-livestock水资源Waterresources适应案例研究Adaptationcasestudy省份1：内蒙古Province1：InnerMongoliaⅠ：草地畜牧业（内蒙古农业大学）Ⅰ：Grassland-livestock(IMAgriculturalUniversity)目标1：气候变化对内蒙古草地畜牧业的影响评价Objective1ClimatechangeimpactsriskassessmentforwholeInnerMongoliagrassland-livestock目标2：未来气候变化情景下内蒙古草地畜牧业的影响预估Objective2AssesstheCCriskimpactongrassland-livestockforwholeInnerMongoliagrasslandunderthefutureclimatescenariosⅡ：水资源（内蒙古水利局）Ⅱ：WaterResources(HydrologicalBureauofInnerMongolia)目标1：气候变化对内蒙古水资源的影响评估Objective1DetectionofclimaticchangeimpactsonInnerMongoliawaterresource目标2：气候变化对未来水资源的可能影响评估Objective2Futureriskassessment目标3：不同草原类型区适应案例研究Objective3CasestudyofdifferentgrasslandtyperegionaboutwaterresourcesⅢ：适应案例研究Ⅲ：TypicalCaseStudyforAdaptationRecommendations目标1：典型草原草地畜牧业区——锡林浩特Objective1Typicalsteppegrasslandandanimalhusbandryarea–Xilinhaote目标2：浑善达克沙地草地农业区——多伦Objective2Sandygrasslandagriculturalarea-Doron目标3：荒漠草原农牧交错带——四子王旗Objective3Ecotoneofdesertandgrassland-Siziwangqi省份2：宁夏Province2：NingxiaⅠ：农业（宁夏气象研究所）Ⅰ：Agriculture(NingxiaMeteorologicalResearchInstitute)目标1：历史气候变化对宁夏农业影响的检测Objective1AnalyzetheimpactofpresentclimatechangeonagricultureinNingxia目标2：未来影响的评估。评估未来气候变化条件下对宁夏农业生产的可能影响和脆弱性，考虑极端气候事件（侧重在干旱、高温等）的影响，进行农业综合适应气候变化措施的示范和效果评估，从农业气象灾害的角度提出对农业生产有指导意义的适应对策建议。Objective2Assessthefutureagriculturalproductionriskofclimatechange.AssessthepossibleimpactandvulnerabilityofclimatechangeonagriculturalproductioninNingxia,intermsofextremeclimateevents,especiallydroughtandhottemperatureevents.;demonstrateandevaluatethecomprehensivetechnologiestoadapttoclimatechange;provideindicativesuggestioninadaptingtoagro-meteorologicalhazards.目标3：气候变化综合对策分析Objective3ComprehensiveagriculturaladaptationrecommendationstoclimatechangeⅡ：水资源（宁夏水利