水库安全设计与垮坝风险

15119952(210098),,,2891,123(Qf=4125à),216218,,,,,?,,,;,,1950Ham2murabi,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,:,,,,,:,,,,,,,[1],Chrysler(1980),,,2,(1932),,,,71©1994-2007ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(1980),,,715,100,:,,,,,,,(Howsaveissaveenough)?,,,,,,,,(),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,:,;;;;;,,,,,11()123451964197919791990100001000500200100()1000020001000500300()50001000500300200100002000100050020050001000500200100200010003001005010003001005020;15m81©1994-2007ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(3186à),2(0155à),121(4179à),3118(3185à)1973(ICOLD)[3],438925,367(4111à);135(1151à),19751988(USCOLD)[4,5],5450,306,Qa=516à;89,Qa=1163à,413171510m,2(:m3;:)83799467519236734003776252469325638090857888538292667948754001643233638046932522262205900113593980103871176149817220127541036128637112094125779399394617070054146666719820284747308719501228591702074065943691530364252527405266218866582810723413322998778132685650822037621237109366494690038154384005116072542890913114019012808167140040121302109210857835853377058192886549962727083470217801453618259731012475301003265234426251920273872534083800072178759265816658195712351532181325400194439522935958661056431922966331214920136380129547932791724305023402164556900972690142317197488576050133815239265512266359415482451889132612911780151735700227541641130196344396355372137127247841626370941460655335414479221722425130131816748606642874298409807514855455658671923889081034399181119202373969701182838269056511227185052002233159002971467181813265545286966512658601253535684401277223133645667251234006220201912681312532858539936728660258611725439216136205815858213111999194175166185000145353817936628460584709132154309029220535777074:91©1994-2007ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.()289135450545089258925MfMa()123389306135367(à)335010481053105810QfQa(à)412531163516111514111()(25)317116161721319213110PfPa(á)(1177)301952313611093114:34Pf(á)(à)Pf(á)(à)11401117116041321201813101027106130521518104818117014124170121701403132160712121010010361910010,2891,123(Qf=4125à),216218,,,,,?,,,,3241,,:1633,5014à;1241,3813à;165,513à;202,612à[3],4,1117à,,5215à,,,,,3015à,5014à,,,,,,,,,,,,,02©1994-2007ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.[7],Pf=NfTMPa=NaTMT(Shui2TuangCheng,,);Nf,Na;MShui2TuangChengICOLDUS2COLDPf,38925,1109á,10;5450,01952á,5,T=25,Pf1177á,ICOLDUSCOLD,,,Pf,565Pf,(),,,5()(m)(10-3)PfPa521331715291122153049111417500144166(10-3)PfPaPfPa01931511231911841821571011131001711401521511031733339175173414314114213110316113410112218110211:333,,,,,Pf(6),,,,,,,,,ICOLDUSCOLD,Shui2TuangChengICOLDUSCOLD,,12©1994-2007ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(USCOLD)2322©1994-2007ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.à5,55,7,57(10-3)55PfPaPfPaA1190038457121613190119101621114421519111920122601592131921193011260121016419311940913301419411950428016101819511960371301240189196119700191301090193197119806154301160191B.1900911716160192115319011910812512190171110919111920131227150159118319211930813625190139015119311940171224143011819411950416515190106015819511960015451201280185:3,,,,,,5,5;,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,?,?,(ASCE)1984,(TVA)Newton13,[1],:?,,,,,32©1994-2007ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(US2BR),[2],,(),,;,,,,1Thetaskcommitteeonspillwadesignfloodse2lection,ASCE.Evaluationproceduresforhy2drologicsafety.NewYork,19882CommitteeontheSafetyofExistingDams,Na2tionalResearchCouncil.Safetyofexitingdams2evaluationandimprovement.NewYork,19833InternationalCommissiononLargeDams(I2COLD).Lessonsfromdamincidents.ReducedEdition,Paris,19734U.S.CommissiononLargeDam(USCOLD),ComitteeonFailuresandAccidentstoLargeDams.Lessonsfromdamincidents,USA.AS2CE,NewYork,19755U.S.CommissiononLargeDam(USCOLD),CommitteeonFailuresandaccidentstolargeDams.Lessonsfromdamincidents,USA.AS2CE,NewYork,19886Shiu2TuangCHENG.Statisticsondamfail2ures.In:Reliablilityanduncertaintanalisesinhdraulicdesign,B.C.Yen&Y.K.Tungets.NewYork,1993(:1995-01-16)ö.:,1995.1,,,,312,8,,,,,,,,,,,,()42©1994-2007ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.