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南京航空航天大学硕士学位论文东亚金融合作的发展及中国的战略选择姓名：黄晓燕申请学位级别：硕士专业：金融学指导教师：顾金宏20061201i206020iiABSTRACTSince1960's,East-Asiahasalwaysbeenthemostvigorousandquickestincreaseareaintheglobaleconomy.AuthorityorganizationssuchastheWorldBankforecastthatEast-Asiamaystillkeepthespeedoffastdevelopmentin20years.East-Asian,asoneofthethreebiggestglobaleconomicplates,canbementionedinthesamebreathwithWesternEurope,NorthAmericainmanyaspectssuchasitseconomicoutputs,marketplacescale,exchangereserve,naturalresourcesandhumanresources.However,East-AsiaisfarbehindEuropeanUnionandNorthAmericainregionalfinancialcooperation,whichnaturallygivesrisetotheponderingofthecountriesinEast-Asia.ThereforeEast-Asiancountriesarereachingconsensusgraduallyintheaspectofreinforcingfinancialcooperationintheregion,underthedualeffectsofinternalneedandexternaldriving.ButtherehavealwaysbeenmanydisputesonproblemssuchasapproachesofachievingthecooperationandfeasibilityofbuildingEast-AsianCurrencyArea.ThoughthedevelopmentofEuropeanUnionandNorthAmericanFreeTradeAreamayplayareferenceroleinEast-Asianfinancialcooperation’spractice,theEast-Asianfinancialcooperationcannotadopttheirdevelopmentpatternsbecauseofthedifferencesineconomy,society,andculture,especiallypoliticalsystem.ThereforeitisnecessarytodoresearchandfigureoutasuitablerouteforthedevelopmentoffinancialcooperationinEast-Asianarea.AndduetothedistinctivepositionofChinainEast-Asianarea,itisalsonecessarytodiscussChina’sinfluenceontheEast-Asianfinancialcooperationandstrategiestobeadopted.Thethesisismainlydividedtotwomajorparts.AnalyzingthenecessityandthecurrentsituationoftheEast-Asianfinancialcooperation,PartIaimsatsuggestingasuitablewayandschemetotheEast-AsianfinancialcooperationaccordingtothedevelopingtrendoftheEast-Asianarea.Firstanintegratedplanismappedout,includingthecooperativetarget,principleandwayofimplementation.Andthen,afeasibleshort-periodschemeandamiddle-and-longrangeschemearesuggestedrespectively.PartIIistoanalyzeChina’spositionanditschoiceofstrategiesinEast-Asianfinancialcooperation.InaccordancewithChina’sinfluenceinthecooperation,strategiestobeadoptedareproposed,topromotethecommondevelopmentandmutualprosperityofbothChinaandEast-Asianfinancialcooperation.Keywords:East-Asianfinancialcooperation,schemefordevelopment,feasibility,ChinaandEast-Asia,China’schoiceofstrategiesv1.1.................................................................................................................72.1...............................................................122.2...............................................................172.3...............................................................193.1...................................................................................213.2...................................................................................224.1...................................................................274.2.......................................................................325.1...................................................................415.2...........................................................45:2.1.........................82.2%................................................102.310+3.....................................................................................132.42003..........................................................184.1GDP.............................................................274.2...........................................................284.3...........................................................294.4%................................................................294.5%....................................................304.6.......................................................................344.7.......................................................................344.8OCA.................................................................355.1...................................................................37,()11.11.1.1110+310+31.1.2[1]20901999RobertMundell200010,[2]121.21.2.1TT·TinbergenBB·BalassaKindleburger[1]OCARobertMundell[3]MckinnonKinen[4]2090OCAOCA3OCA1CMI23ABF4CMIABFAMFEMEAP2003ABF1IIMA1219978534EMEAP20036104ASEAN+310+3CMI[5]ASEAN+3EMEAPABF,,1.2.22090,200410+110+3112003810+351.31.3.11.11.3.2610+371.11.11.21.31.1.21.2.11.2.21.3.1.1.3.22.1.22.1.12.1.32.12.2.12.2.22.2.32.24.1.14.1.24.2.24.2.15.1.25.1.15.1.2.25.2.25.2.15.15.23.13.23.34.14.25.1.2.13.2.13.2.26.16.21.1.182.12.1.182.1[6][7]2.1GDP%%%1996199719981996199719981996199719985.05.23.06.05.74.52.92.94.38.04.6-3.07.96.620.04.44.7--3.90.9--0.21.72.03.43.43.97.15.5-1.04.94.59.82.02.66.58.67.53.53.54.05.02.62.5--5.75.12.48.45.110.0--8.713.36.97.83.01.42.03.22.02.11.85.5-0.4-3.05.95.615.01.53.5--2002563IMFAPEC[8]IMFIMF9IMF[9]APECAPEC[10][11]2.1.22080200271[12]102.1.320802.22.250%2.212%2000200120022003129.83135.42136.78139.3654.9960.9265.7469.443451GDP2GDP3451950112060RobertMundell1[13]OCAOCA[14][15]2.11122.12.22.2.1[16]110+310+3199719991110+310+310+32000510+3ASP10+31319971320015