new views on the optimum currency area theory What

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              !#$$#                    !#$$#                  !        #  $        %  & '   ' ( ) (    !   *+            #+, ( +)   -./-0-11- ,) 23 4   +5 6     +   6   7         +      ,)6            !  #$ $ %&  !  #'& ()))*   & +,,---.%/. 0()))'0)))%/                                   !#$ %&'( %&()*  !#&( * !#&)( %&&( %! $+,#$ &)(  ' $- !#! .    $+,/   0!! 1  $   - *$ % ! , 2 03 0 !/ '  AbstractThispapersurveystheoptimumcurrencyarea(OCA)literature.Itisorganisedintofourphases:the“pioneeringphase”whichputforwardtheOCAtheoryanditsproperties,the“reconciliationphase”whenitsdiversefacetswerecombined,the“reassessmentphase”thatledtothe“newOCAtheory,”andthe“empiricalphase”duringwhichthetheorywassubjecttodueempiricalscrutiny.WemakesystematicreferencetotheEuropeaneconomicandmonetaryunion(EMU)towhichtheOCAtheoryhasbeenmostfrequentlyapplied.Allpioneeringcontributionsarestillrelevant.Severalearlyweaknesseshavenowbeenamended.Meanwhile,thebalanceofjudgementshasshiftedinfavourofcurrencyunions.Theyarenowdeemedtogeneratefewercostsintermsofthelossofautonomyofdomesticmacroeconomicpolicies,andthereisgreateremphasisonthebenefits.Lookingaheadweareconfrontedwithtwodistinctparadigms--specialisationversus“endogeneityofOCA.”JELclassification:E42,F15,F33andF41.Keyword:OptimumCurrencyArea,EconomicandMonetaryIntegration,InternationalMonetaryArrangements,andEMU Non-TechnicalSummaryThispapersurveystheliteratureontheoptimumcurrencyarea(OCA)theory.Itisorganisedintofourmainphases.Thefirstisthe“pioneeringphase”fromtheearly1960stotheearly1970s.TheachievementofthisphasewastoputforwardtheOCAproperties,startthedebateonthebordersofacurrencyarea,andinitiatetheanalysisofthebenefitsandcostsfrommonetaryintegration.TheOCApropertiesinclude:themobilityoflabourandotherfactorsofproduction,priceandwageflexibility,economicopenness,anddiversificationinproductionandconsumption,similarityininflationrates,fiscalintegrationandpoliticalintegration.Thesimilarityofshockandcorrelationofincomeswasaddedlater.Sharingthesepropertiesreducestheusefulnessofnominalexchangerateadjustmentswithinthecurrencyarea.ThemaindrawbackofthepioneeringphasewasthatitwasdifficulttoweighandreconcilethediverseOCApropertiesasaunifyingframeworkwasmissing.AlsomostOCApropertieshadnoclearempiricalcontentyet.Inthe“reconciliationphase”duringthe1970s,asecondsetofcontributionsjointlyexaminedtheOCAproperties.Thisrepresentedanimportantadvancementaspropertiesstartedtobeanalysedandweighedwithoneanothertogaugetheirrelativeimportance.Thisphasealsoprovidedseveralnewinsights,anew“meta-property”(i.e.,thesimilarityofshocks),andgavemorestructuretotheanalysisofthecostsandbenefits.However,mostOCApropertiescontinuedtolackanempiricalcontent.Afterthesetwophases,thedevelopmentoftheOCAtheorylostsomemomentum.Inparticular,therewereaproblemofinconclusiveness,asOCApropertiesmaypointindifferentdirections,aweakeningoftheanalyticalframeworkbehindtheOCAtheorythusfar,andaslow-downintheprocessofEuropeanmonetaryintegration.However,graduallyseveraltheoreticalandempiricaladvancementsleadtoareassessmentoftheOCAtheoryandofthemainbenefitsandcostsfrommonetaryunification.Thebalanceofjudgementsshiftedinfavourofcurrencyunions.Associationtoacurrencyunionisnowdeemedtogeneratefewercostsintermsofthelossofautonomyofdomesticmacroeconomicpolicies.Thereisnowalsomoreemphasisonthebenefitsofcurrencyareas.SomeOCApropertieswerereinterpreted.This“reassessmentphase”ofthe1980sandearly1990sledtothe“newtheoryofoptimumcurrencyarea.”Inthesecond

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