Economic Growth and the Expansion of Urban Land in

47(4)813–843,April20100042-0980Print/1360-063XOnline©2009UrbanStudiesJournalLimitedDOI:10.1177/0042098009349770XiangzhengDengandJikunHuangareintheCentreforChineseAgriculturalPolicy,InstituteofGeographicalSciencesandNaturalResourcesResearch,ChineseAcademyofSciences,Beijing100101,China.E-mail:[e-mail]@igsnrr.ac.cn.ScottRozelleisintheFreemanSpogliInstituteforInternationalStudies,StanfordUniversity,EncinaHallEast,E301Stanford,CA94305-6055,USA.E-mail:[e-mail]ntofEnvironmentalandNaturalResourceEconomics,UniversityofRhodeIsland,Kingston,RI02881-20201,USA.E-mail:[e-mail]nsionofUrbanLandinChinaXiangzhengDeng,JikunHuang,ScottRozelleandEmiUchida[Paperfirstreceived,October2007;infinalform,January2009]AbstractThispaperaimstodemonstratetherelationshipbetweeneconomicgrowthandtheurbancoreareainordertohelpurbanplannersreachabetterunderstandingofthepressuresthatareleadingtochangesinlanduse.UsingauniquepaneldatasetwithmeasuresofChina’slanduse,itisshownthat,duringthelate1980sand1990s,China’surbanlandarearosesignificantly.Descriptivestatisticsandmultivariateanalysisarethenusedtoidentifythedeterminantsofurbanlandusechange.Inadditiontousingmorestandardregressionapproachessuchasordinaryleastsquares,theanalysisisaugmentedwithspatialstatisticalanalysis.Theanalysisdemonstratestheoverwhelmingimportanceofeconomicgrowthinthedeterminationofurbanlanduse.Overall,itisfoundthaturbanlandexpandsby3percentwhentheeconomy,measuredbygrossdomesticproduct,growsby10percent.ItisalsoshownthattheexpansionoftheurbancoreisassociatedwithchangesinChina’seconomicstructure.Ifurbanplannershaveaccesstoforecastsofeconomicgrowth,usingtheseresultstheyshouldbeabletohaveabetterbasisforplanningtheexpansionofthebuilt-upareaintheurbancore.urban(Kuznets,1966).Intheearlierstagesofdevelopment,theagriculturalsectorisalwaysthedominantpartoftheeconomy.Transferringrelativelylessproductiverurallabourtothenon-farmsectorisoneofthemainenginesofthedevelopmentprocess(BeaucheminandSchoumaker,2005).1.IntroductionAccordingtoexperiencesinmostpartsoftheworld,theprocessofdevelopmentleadstourbanisation.Economicdevelopmentissometimesactuallydefinedasaprocessthatshiftsanation’spopulationfromruralto814XIANGZHENGDENGETAL.Almostaxiomatically,growth-inducedurbanisationisgoingtorequirethatcitiesgrowinsizeandutiliseland.Successfulurbanisationrequirestheexpansionoftheindustrialandservicesectors(Parker,1996).Morehousingisneeded.Urbanisationalsorequiresthecreationofnewinfrastructure(Ogu,2000).Inaddition,thereareanumberofotherfac-tors(whichareoftenunobservableordifficulttomeasure)whichalsomayaffecttheexpan-sionofurbanland,suchasthefiscalmotivesoflocalgovernmentstoconvertrurallandintourbanuse.Insomeplaces,localgovern-mentscanobtainsubstantialextra-budgetaryrevenuethroughlandconversion.Asaresult,insomecircumstances,localgovernmentstendtopromoteexcessivespatialgrowthofcitiesbeyondwhathasbeenplanned.1Ofcourse,officialsinupper-levelgovernmentsknowthisandoftenrespondwithrestrictionsonlandconversionandbuilt-uparea.Whiletheneedforlandisunambiguous,whatisunclearishowmuchlandwillbeshiftedfromotherusesduringthecourseofurbanisation.Oneofthemaindemandsonurbanplannerswhoarechargedwithdesigningafutureurbanlandscapeandco-ordinatingtheexpansionofthecitywithanation’sotherdevelopmentalneedsisanaccurateestimateoftheamountoflandthatwillbeconvertedduringtheperiodbeingcov-eredbytheplan.Intheinitialstepofcreatinganurbanlanduseplan,plannersaretypicallygivenanexpectedgrowthrate(forexample,fromtheMinistryoftheEconomy’seconomicplanningofficeorfromtheGovernmentAccountingOffice).Basedonthisexpectedgrowthrate,urbanplannerscanthenbegintoattempttocreateablueprintofwhatthecitywill(should)looklikeatsomepointinthefuture.Oneoftheparametersofgreat-estinterestwhichwillbeevidentwhentheblueprintiscomplete(andwhichisalsooneofthekeyinputsintocreatingtheurbanplan)istheamountoflandthatwillbeconvertedfromotherusesintocityuse.2Oncethisinitialgrowth/urbanlandconversionprojectionismade,thesecondstepoftheplanningprocesscanproceed.Duringthisstage,policy-makerslookathowmuchlandwillbeexpectedtobeconvertedina‘businessasusual’scenarioanddetermineifthisamountofconversionisacceptableornot.Ifthelevelofconversionisacceptable,theplancanbelaunchedwithintheboundsofthecurrentregulatoryandinstitutionalframeworkthathasguidedurbanlanduseinthepast.Underthisscenario,themainjoboftheplanningdepartmentwillbetomonitorlandusetoensurethattheirprojec-tionswerecorrect.However,iftheamountoflandtobeconvertedtourbanusesunderexpectedeco-nomicgrowthratesistoohigh—forexample,iftheconversionswereexpectedtousesomuchagriculturallandthattheywouldcauseathreattothenation’sfoodsecurity—policy-makersmightasktheurbanlandplannerstocreateanewplan.Thisnewplanmightbeaccompaniedbyanewsetofregulationsandinstitutionsthatwouldseektoallowthegrowthtocontinuebutinawaythatusedlessagricultural(orothertypes)ofland.Inunderstandingthisprocess,oneofthemostfundamentalissuesthatneedstobeunderstoodisfromwhatsources