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原文:（译文在后面）ReportfromDavos:RiskManagementSurvivorsOfferCautionaryTalesWhartonmanagementprofessorMichaelUseemjoinedheadsofstate,politicians,CEOs,celebritiesandothersatthisyear'sWorldEconomicForuminDavos,Switzerland,where,hesays,themoodseemedtobeoneofmutedoptimism.But,ashepointsout,therewasalsoarecognitionofhowmuchstillneedstobedonetopreventthekindsofcatastrophes--bothnaturalandcreated--thatchangedthelivesofsomanyindividualsoverthepasttwoyears.Useem,directorofWharton'sCenterforLeadershipandChangeManagement,offersthisreportonDavos.Amongthe2,500businessexecutives,politicalleadersandotherswhoattendedthe2011meetingoftheWorldEconomicForuminDavos,themoodwasoneofcautiousrecuperationfromaself-induced,life-threateningillness.Thefinancialcrisishadbeensurmountedbutnotwithoutlingeringfrailties,especiallytheunder-employmentoftheWest.TheongoingpoliticalupheavalsinTunisiaandEgyptaddedanothercrisistothefocusinDavos.TheForumarrangedaspecialsessionontheunfoldingactionsinNorthAfricaandtheMiddleEast,andmanyparticipantssoughtfrequentupdatesonthehistoricevents,wonderingwhetherthestreetprotests,inthewordsofthespecialsession,wereatippingpointortsunami,andwhethertheywouldresultinasoftlandingorabloodyone.Still,cautiousoptimismprevailedamongthenationalandcorporateleadersinDavosthattheyhadtakentherightstepsforatleastthefinancialrecovery.Notalltheiractionshadworked,butonbalancetheyhad,andmanyoftheseleaderspromisednowtobetterpreparetheiragenciesorenterprisestomanagefuturethreatsinaworldthathasbecomeevermoresubjecttolow-probabilitybuthigh-consequenceevents.TheHaitianearthquakeandBPoilspillintheGulfofMexicoservedasrecentremindersthatenormouscatastropheswerenotonlyfinancial--andthatmuchremainedtobedoneformanagingextremerisksinaworldmorevulnerablethanevertobothnaturalandunnaturalcalamities.Theagendagoingforward:continuetomonitorfinancialinstitutionsandsovereigndebttopreventsystemiccollapse,buildalearningnetwork,redesigntheboardandrewirethemind.ContinuingVigilanceSeveralofthemorethan35nationalleadersinDavosvowedtousetheirstatepowerstoavoidanyfinancialrelapse.Ifgovernmentshadlearnedanythingfromtheneardeathexperienceofthecrisis,itwastomoreeffectivelyoverseerisktakersandtheirshort-term,self-interesteddecisions.Wewerestandingonthebrinkofanabyss,saidFrenchPresidentNicolasSarkozyofthefinancialcrisis,andwehadtoact.Butnewperilsarenowleadingtowardnewbrinks,hewarned,includingtheteeteringsovereigndebtofseveralEuropeannationsandaquestioningoftheeuro.Inthewakeofthebankingcrisis,governmentsmustagainactboldlytopreventfurtherupheaval.TheeuroisEurope,hedeclared.Wewillneverlettheeurobedestroyed.GermanChancellorAngelaMerkeladdedherowndefenseofthecurrency,sayingitistheembodimentofEuropetoday.Shouldtheeurofail,Europewillfail.Shealsosoughttougheroversightoftheplayersthathadbroughtonthefinancialmeltdowntobeginwith:Ialwayssaidtherewouldbeanewdeckofcardsonthetableafterthecrisis,thoughgovernmentshavenotyetmanagedtodealalltherightcards.Dowehavethenecessarymechanismsinplacetoensuresustainablegrowthglobally?Wehavelaiddownthegroundwork,shestated,butwearenotthereyet.Similarly,U.S.TreasurySecretaryTimothyGeithnerwarnedthat,despitesixquartersofGDPgrowthintheU.S.,nationalleadersstillhadworktodototakecatastrophicrisksoutofthemarket.AndU.K.PrimeMinisterDavidCameron,observingthatgiventhetraumasofrecentyears,therecoverywasalwaysgoingtobechoppy,arguedthatcountryofficialshadnochoicebuttocontinuetomodernizeandadapttheireconomiesorotherwisefallbehindandfail.Othercountryleaderscitedadditionalperilsthatrequiredstillmoremeasures.IndonesianPresidentSusiloBambangYudhoyonoworriedaboutemergingconflictsoverfood,fuelandwaterthatthreatenedtoelevateprivategreedoverpublicneed.RussianPresidentDmitryMedvedevwarnedofthecontinuedfragilityofourcondition,broughthomejustdaysbeforebyadevastatingexplosionintheMoscowairport.Buthe,too,cautionedthattheeconomicrecoverywasnotyetcomplete.Manytendtospeakoftheendoftheworldfinancialcrisis,hestated,butitisquiteobviousthatitisnotallthatsimple.Whilethecrisishassoberedupeveryone,wehavecopedwithonlyonepartofthesymptomsofthecrisis,andsofarwehavenotfoundamodelforgrowth.Symptomaticoftheheightenedawarenessofriskmanagement,thePrimeMinisterofJapan,NaotoKan,referencedtheEnglishutilitarianphilosopherJeremyBentham'sprincipleofcreatingthegreatesthappinessforthegreatestnumber.Inanerainwhichthedownsidesofriskhavebecomemoresevere,hesaidthattheJapanesegovernmentunderhisleadership,bycontrast,wouldstresspoliciesthatgeneratenotthegreatesthappiness--butratherasocietywiththeleastunhappiness--forthegreatestnumber.BuildingaLearningNetworkGiventheglobalfinancialcrisisandthedevastatingeventsinHaitiandtheGulf,itcameasnosurprisethattheWorldEconomicForum,underthecontinuingleadershipoffounderKlausSchwab,turnedthespotlightatthisyear's41stannualmeetingonboththeprinciplesandstrategiesofriskmanagement.TheForumlaunchedanewRiskResponseNetwork(RRN),aninitiativetoidentifyleadingglobalrisksandtobetterequippublic,privateandnon-profitleaderswithsharedmeansforpreventing,anticipatingorrespondingtotherisks.Asp