美国宇航局风险管理工具

MissionSuccessStartsWithSafety1RiskManagementToolsLangleyResearchCenterMay2,2000MichaelA.GreenfieldDeputyAssociateAdministratorOfficeofSafetyandMissionAssuranceMissionSuccessStartsWithSafety2RecentReviewsFocusingonNASAFailures–MarsClimateOrbiterMishapInvestigation(MCO)•Chair:ArtStephenson/MSFC–NASAFBC(Faster,Better,Cheaper)Task(FBC)•Chair:TonySpears–ShuttleIndependentAssessment(SIA)•Chair:Dr.HenryMcDonald–MarsProgramIndependentAssessment(MPIA)•Chair:TomYoungMissionSuccessStartsWithSafety3Recommendations:RiskManagementDeficiencies→Overallthereareabout175recommendations→MostaddressedissuesapplicablethroughouttheAgency,atallCentersandallProjects!→Findingsweregroupedinto4largeareas:People,Process,ProcessExecution,AdvancedToolsandTechniques→RiskandRiskManagementissuesrepresentacontinuingtheme•WeaknessinRiskIdentificationandAnalysis•PoorRiskMitigationandTracking•LackofstrongSystemsEngineering•LimitedapplicationofRiskAssessmenttools→NASAhasformedanIntegratedActionTeam(NIAT)todevelopsuitableplanstocorrectthedeficiencies→BriefingtoNASAChiefEngineeronJune15.MissionSuccessStartsWithSafety4Outline•ContinuousRiskManagementProcess•NASARiskManagementRequirements•FaultTreeAnalysis(FTA)•FailureModeAndEffectAnalysis(FMEA)•ProbabilisticRiskAssessment(PRA)MissionSuccessStartsWithSafety5ContinuousRiskManagementProcess•Riskmanagementisacontinuousprocesswhich:•Identifiesrisk•Analyzesriskanditsimpact,andprioritizesrisk•Developsandimplementsriskmitigationoracceptance•Tracksrisksandriskmitigationimplementationplans•Assuresriskinformationiscommunicatedtoallproject/programlevels•Riskmanagementplanning•Developedduringtheprogram/projectformulationphase•Includedintheprogram/projectplans•Executed/maintainedduringtheimplementationphase•Riskmanagementresponsibility•Program/projectmanagerhastheoverallresponsibilityfortheImplementationofriskmanagement,ensuringanintegrated,coherentriskmanagementapproachthroughouttheprojectMissionSuccessStartsWithSafety6NASARiskManagementRequirements•NPG7120.5,NASAProgramandProjectManagementProcessesandRequirements•Theprogramorprojectmanagershallapplyriskmanagementprinciplesasadecision-makingtoolwhichenablesprogrammaticandtechnicalsuccess•Programandprojectdecisionsshallbemadeonthebasisofanorderlyriskmanagementeffort•Riskmanagementincludesidentification,assessment,mitigation,anddispositionofriskthroughoutthePAPAC(ProvideAerospaceProductsAndCapabilities)process•NPG8705.x(draft),RiskManagementProceduresandGuidelines•ProvidesadditionalinformationforapplyingriskmanagementasrequiredbyNPG7120.5MissionSuccessStartsWithSafety7RiskManagementProcessANALYZEEvaluate(impact/severity,probability,timeframe),classify,andprioritizerisksIDENTIFYIdentifyriskissuesandconcernsPLANDecidewhat,ifanything,shouldbedoneaboutrisksTRACKMonitorriskmetricsandverify/validatemitigationactionsCONTROLReplanmitigations,closerisks,invokecontingencyplans,ortrackrisksProgram/ProjectconstraintsRiskdata:testdata,expertopinion,hazardanalysis,FMEA,FTA,PRA,lessonslearned,technicalanalysisResourcesRiskevaluationRiskclassificationRiskprioritizationStatementsofriskListofrisksNote:Communicationanddocumentationextendthroughoutallofthefunctions.RiskdecisionsRiskstatusreportson:—Risks—RiskmitigationplansRiskmitigationplansRiskacceptancerationaleRisktrackingrequirementsProgram/projectdata(metricsinformation)MissionSuccessStartsWithSafety8NASARiskManagementRequirements•NPG8715.3,NASASafetyManual•Purposeofriskassessmentistoidentifyandevaluateriskstosupportdecision-makingregardingactionstoensuresafetyandmissionassurance•Riskassessmentanalysesshouldusethesimplestmethodsthatadequatelycharacterizetheprobabilityandseverityofundesiredevents•Qualitativemethodsthatcharacterizehazardsandfailuremodesandeffectsshouldbeusedfirst•Quantitativemethodsaretobeusedwhenqualitativemethodsdonotprovideanadequateunderstandingoffailures,consequences,andevents•Systemsafetyanalysismustincludeearlyinteractionwithprojectengineering,integration,andoperationsfunctionstoensureallhazardsareidentified•Thehazardassessmentprocessisaprinciplefactorintheunderstandingandmanagementoftechnicalrisk•Aspartoftheresponsibilityforoverallriskmanagement,theprogram/projectmanagermustensurethatsystemsafetyanalyses,appropriatetotheprogram/projectcomplexity,havebeenconductedMissionSuccessStartsWithSafety9NASARiskManagementRequirements•NSTS22206,instructionsforpreparationofFMEAandCIL[forSpaceShuttle]•Systemandperformancerequirementsaredefined•Analysisassumptionsandgroundrulesarespecified•Blockdiagrams(functionalorreliability)aredeveloped•Analysisworksheetswhichincludeidentificationofeveryfailuremodearedeveloped(theeffectsdocumentedaddresstheworstcase.)•Correctiveactionsanddesignimprovementsareevaluatedandrecommended•Analysisissummarizedinreportform•SSP30234,instructionsforpreparationofFMEAandCIL[forSpaceStation]•FMEAprocess,requirements,rules,reportingrequirementsaredescribed•CILprocess,requirements,rules,reportingrequirementsaredescribed•GroundsupportequipmentFMEAandCILprocesses,requirements,approvals,anddatabasesa