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考虑风险的中小企业供应链管理摘要：供应链由源头到客户的一组相互关联的实体组成，包含着从上游到下游的物料流，服务流，信息流和资金流。供应链管理的兴起伴随着经济的全球化和需求的多样化。它以整体的视角协调整条供应链上的企业，实现柔性和稳定的供求关系，增强企业应对风险和机遇的能力。中小企业作为当代经济中不可或缺的组成部分，具有资源有限，市场反应灵活，低话语权，所有者高度参与经营及抗风险能力低等特点。同时，供应链，核心企业对中小企业的产品质量、价格、仓储和运输的要求越来越严苛；加之政治、经济和社会环境以及生产经营类风险事件频发，使中小企业遭受了前所未有的压力和危机。因此，中小企业实施供应链管理的迫切性更加显著。许多学者对中小企业实施供应链管理的可行性、战略和实证进行了研究取得了丰富的研究成果。但是，还没有适用于中小企业的，经济、高效的供应链管理架构；而且以中小企业的视角对其供应链及风险管理进行的定量地研究也很有限。本文在对中小企业供应链及其管理的相关文献回顾的基础上，结合已有的供应链，风险管理，供应商选择方法，供应商转换策略，联合采购理论和多技术，构建了考虑风险因素的基于多技术的中小企业供应链管理架构。本文共分八章，主要内容如下：第一章指出了中小企业供应链管理和风险控制的重要性，提出了本文的研究目标，介绍了主要的研究方法以及本文的结构。第二章首先介绍了供应链及供应链管理的基础知识，对与本文相关的供应管理、风险管理和中小企业供应链管理等领域的研究成果进行了回顾和总结。第三章就简单介绍了智能体和多系统的特征及相关知识；回顾了多系统的在供应链管理领域的应用和相关研究成果；最后，分析了中小企业供应链管理与多系统的契合性，并提出了基于多系统的中小企业供应链管理框架。第四章以中小企业联合釆购为背景，构建了基于系统的中小企业采购联盟架构和协商机制；介绍了改进的群评估聚合算法，考虑了决策环境中的风险因素对群评估聚合的影响。第五章以中小企业供应链中存在的供应和需求中断风险防范为目标，讨论了中小企业最优供应商数量的决策问题，分析了参数变化对结果的影响及其含义，最后提出了一些管理建议。第六章构建了基于的中小企业供应商选择模型。本章以前一章的风险期望损失模型为基础来确定最佳的供应商数量，引入加权线性规划模型，进行，多准摘要则供应商评估；详细描述了中小企业供应商选择中各的功能、消息类型、协商和选择过程。第七章是全文的总结和对研究的展望。本章对整篇论文所构建的中小企业供应链的风险管理和多系统架构进行了分析和总结，阐述了文章的创新点，并在此基础上提出了今后需要继续研究的重点和可能的方向。本文的研究工作着眼于中小企业的供应链管理融入对供应链，风险因素的考查力求在多系统的框架下建立经济、高效的供应链管理系统，为中小企业实施有效的供应链管理提供可行的方案，从而丰富相关领域的研究成果。关键词：中小企业供应链管理分布式系统多Agent风险2Considertheriskofsmallandmedium-sizedenterprisesupplychainmanagementAbstract:Supplychain(SC)isasetofinterrelatedentitiesdirectlyinvolvedintheupstreamtodownstreamflowsofproducts,services,informationandfinancesfromasourcetoacustomer.Therisingofsupplychainmanagement(SCM)comesalongwiththeeconomicglobalizationandthediversificationofdemand.Aflexibleandstablerelationshipbetweensupplyanddemandwillbeachievedbycoordinatingmembersinthechainfromaperspective,whichenhancestheabilityofenterprisestofaceriskandopportunity.Smalltomediumsizedenterprise(SME)isanintegralpartofmoderneconomic,whichhaslimitedresources,flexiblemarketresponse,lowpowerofnegotiation,highdegreeofparticipationbyownerintheoperationandweaknessinresistingrisk.WhiletherequirementsofthecoreenterpriseofthesupplychaintoSMEonproductquality,price,storageandtransportationareincreasinglystringent.Andvarioustypesofriskinpolitical,economic,socialenvironmentandtheoperationoccurfrequently.ThosemakeSMEsufferingwithunprecedentedpressureandcrisis.Therefore,theurgencyoftheimplementationofsupplychainmanagementbySMEismoresignificant.Manyscholarshavestudiedthefeasibility,strategiesandempiricalreportsofthesupplychainmanagementforSME,andawealthofresearchesareexistence.However,economicandefficientframeworkhasnotbeendesignedforsmalltomediumsizedenterprises(SME).AndthequantitativestudyofsupplychainandriskmanagementfromtheviewofSMEisalsolimited.Inthisdissertation,basedonthereviewoftheSMEsupplychainmanagementliterature,combinedwiththetheoryofsupplychainriskmanagement,supplierselection,supplierswitching,cooperativeprocurementandmufti-agenttechnology,aseriesofSCMframeworkforSMESbasedonmufti-agentsystemareconstructedwiththeconsideringofrisk.Thisdissertationinvolveseightchapters.Themaincontentofeachchapterissummarizedasfollows:ThefirstchapterpointsouttheimportanceofSMEsupplychainmanagementandriskcontrol.Thegoalofthisstudy,themainresearchmethodsandthestructureofthisarticleareilluminated.Thesecondchapterintroducesthebasicknowledgeofsupplychainandmanagement.Researchesassociatedwiththisarticle,onsupplymanagement,riskmanagementandsupplychainmanagementforSMEarereviewed.Chapter3brieflyintroducesthecharacteristicsandknowledgeoftheAgentandMulti-AgentSystem(MAS).AreviewofMulti-AgentSysteminthefieldofsupplychainmanagementapplicationsandrelatedresearchesaregiven.Finally,theanalysisbetweensupplychainmanagementforSMEandMulti-AgentSystemsismade,andaSMEorientedsupplychainmanagementarchitecturebasedonMASisconstructed.Inchapter4,withthecooperativeprocurementtoSMEasthebackground,apurchasingconsortiumforSMESbasedonMASisbuiltandthesystemarchitectureaggregationalgorithmisusedandtheriskfactorsinthedecision-makingenvironmentareconsidered.3Chapter5considerstheriskpreventionofthe.supplyanddemandriskintheSCofSME.Theoptimalnumberofsuppliersisdiscussed,andtheparametersinfluenceontheresultsandtheirmeaningare.Attheend,somemanagerialimplicationsarerecommended.Chapter6ThisSystemisbasedonthemodelofthepreviouschapter,whichhelpsdeterminingtheoptimalnumberofsuppliers.Andaweightedlinearprogrammingmodelformufti-criteriasupplierevaluationisintroduced.Moreover,thefunctionoftheAgent,messagetype,negotiationandselectprocessinthisframeworkisdescribed.InChapter7,aSMEorientedsupplierswitchingmodelbasedonMASisconstructed.Vendorriskassessmentmechanism饰thethird-partyusingBayesiantheoryisproposedandthusasupplierswitchingmodelconsideringtheriskfactorsissuggested.Thebasicmodel,expandingandoptionmodelsofsupplierswitchingdecisionareanalyzed.Chapter8summarizesalltheworksofthisdissertationandtheoutlookforresearch.ThischapteranalyzesandsummarizestheMASmodelssuggestedinthisdissertation,andinnovationsandfutureresearchesareilluminated.FocusonSME,thesupplychainriskmanagementisembeddedinthesupplychainmanagementsystems.Economicandefficientsupplychainmanag