搜索
146200512JOURNALOFNATURALDISASTERSVol.14,No.6Dec.,2005:2005-10-12;:2005-11-10:(40371002):(1975-),,,,,.:100424574(2005)06200202061,2(1.,510070;2.,100875):,,,,,:;;:X4:AStudyonpatternofsoftriskzoningmapofnaturaldisastersZHANGJun2xiang1,HUANGChong2fu2(1.GuangzhouInstituteofGeography,Guangzhou510070,China;2.InstituteofDisasterandPublicSecurity,CollegeofResourcesScienceandTechnology,BeijingNormalUniversity,Beijng100875,China)Abstract:Itisadeep2seatedproblemthathowtoexpresstheimprecisionofriskassessments.Thispaperintroducesfuzzyriskintothefieldofnaturaldisasterriskmapping,andexploresthepatternofnaturaldisasterrisksundertheconditionsofimprecisionofriskassessments.Thispapergivesakindofriskmapofnaturaldisasterswithhierarchyandmultiplevalues.Thiskindofriskmapiscalledsoftriskmapduetothatitisachievedbyusingtheideaandmethodofthesoftcomputing.Softriskmapofnaturaldisastersnotonlycanexpresstheimprecisionofriskvalueestimates,butalsocanexpressthereliabilityofriskinformation.Thisstudywillofferanewideafortheupgradeofriskmapsofnaturaldisaster.Keywords:naturaldisaster;fuzzyrisk;softriskmap,,,,,[1],,,[2]©1994-2006ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.[3],1-,I1,I2,I3,p1,p2,,p10,0,0.1,0.2,,11,-,,I2,1I2,I2(p)=0.250.2+0.50.3+0.750.4+10.5+0.750.6+0.50.7+0.250.8(1),,aba,,b0,1-Table1Fuzzyriskexpressedbypossibility-probabilitydistributionIjp0p1p2p3p4p5p6p7p8p9p1000.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91.0I11.001.000.750.500.25000000I2000.250.500.751.000.750.500.2500I30000000.250.500.751.001.00:[4],mp,,,mp,m,-,,,I2(p6)=1,:I2p61,1,,,,-,Ij(p),0FIj(p)F1,Ij(p)1,Ijp1,,:1I20.5,1;I20.83,0.17,-,2-,,-,,,,,,-,,,126:©1994-2006ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.[0,1]Ij,22-Fig.2Possibility-probabilitydistribution-[5]-,,-,,,(,),A(x)E(0EE1)x,,1.x,P,p(x)C{x(p)|x,pP}(2)P[0,1],x(p)Epip(x)=min{p|pP,x(p)E},p(x)=max{p|pP,x(p)E}.(3)p(x)x,-(minimumprobability),p(x)(maximumprobability),3p(x)x,-p2,p33-,3-Fig.3Fuzzy-cutsetofpossibility-probabilitydistributionp(x)C[p(x),p(x)](4)p(x)xp(x)p(x),,x(p)={p|pP,x(p)E}(5),,p(x)x,x(p),p(x)01,,,p(x),3,x(p)p(x)p(x),p(x);,,p(x),,(),;,,p(x)=p(x)/p(x)dx,p(x)=p(x)/p(x)dx.p(x)=p(x)/p(x)dx,p(x)=p(x)/p(x)dx.(6)2214©1994-2006ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(x)p(x)p(x)p(x)E(x)=xp(x)dx,E(x)=xp(x)dx.E(x)=xp(x)dx,E(x)=xp(x)dx.(7)E(x)C[E(x),E(x)](8)p(x)x,E(x)E(x)p(x)(min2imum-probabilityfuzzyexpectedvalue)(maximumprobabilityfuzzyexpectedvalue)-E(x)E(x),E(x)E(x)-,--,,E(x)E(x),,E(x)E(x),,[0,1],E(x)E(x)-E(x)E(x),,,,E(x)(conservativerisk,CR),E(x)(risk-takingrisk,RR),,[0,1],,,,22Table2FuzzyriskofdisasterinsomeareaCRRR1E1(x)E1(x)2E2(x)E2(x)NNNnEn(x)En(x)2,,,-E(x)E(x),E(x)E(x),,,3,,,[6]GIS[7][8],,:1:,UUn,Uj(j=1,2,,n)2:,,Xixi,i=1,2,,m,k,kxki3:-4:,,326:©1994-2006ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(x)E(x),,,,,,,,;,n,n,,,2n(),44-Fig.4Possibility2probabilityriskanalysisandsoftriskzoningmap,,,[0,1],,,,,,,,,,4,4214©1994-2006ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.:[1]HuangCF.Informationdiffusiontechniquesandsmallsampleproblem[J].InternationalJournalofInformationTechnologyandDecisionMaking,2002,1(2):229-249.[2],.[J].,2000,9(1):47-53.[3]HuangCF,YongS.TowardsEfficientFuzzyInformationProcessingUsingthePrincipleofInformationDiffusion[M].Heidelberg,Germany:Physica-Verlag(Springer).2002.[4]MoragaC,HuangCF.Learningsubjectiveprobabilitiesfromasmalldataset[A].Proceedingsof33rdInternationalSymposiumonMultiple-val2ueLogic[C],IEEEComputerSociety,LosAlamitos,California,2003:355-360.[5]HuangCF.Conceptsandmethodsoffuzzyriskanalysis[A].ProceedingsoftheFirstChina-JapanConferenceonRiskAssessmentandManage2ment[C].Beijing:InternationalAcademicPublishers,1998.12-23.[6]AbebeAJ,SolomatineDP.Fuzzyalpha-cutvs.MonteCartotechniquesinassessinguncertaintyinmodelparameters[A].Proc.4-thInterna2tionalConferenceonHydroinformatics[C],IowaCity,USA,July2000,1-8.[7]WangF.,HallGB,Subaryano.FuzzyinformationrepresentationandprocessinginconventionalGISsoftware:databasedesignandapplication[J].InternationalJournalofGeographicInformationSystems,1990,4(3):261-283.[8]FieldEH.Probalilisticseismichazardanalysis(PSHA).:©1994-2006ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.