搜索
原文：ThesocialdimensionsoffinancialriskAsmoneyhascometoplayacentralroleinmodemsocietytheriskoflosingmoney,financialrisk,isamajorconcernforindividualsandsocieties.Thelossofajobwouldnotonlyhaveanimpactonanindividual'ssourceofincome,butcouldthreatentheindividual'sentirelivelihoodandbreakupthefamily.Similarly,thelossofapensioncouldmeanhunger,illnessandmiseryforanold-agedpensioner.Thelossofsavingsthroughthecollapseofabankcouldhaveadevastatingblowonindividuals.Forcorporations,financialriskcanaffectthevalueoftheirbusinessinvestmentsandfinancialassets.Atasocietallevel,thebankruptcyofacurrency,ashappenedrecentlytotheMexicanpeso,couldhaveadramaticimpactontheentireeconomy.Theaimofthispaperistoanalysepresentdayknowledgeaboutfinancialriskandevaluatetheextenttowhichitprovidesacomprehensiveunderstandingofrisk.Thefindingssuggestthatbecauseoftheobsessionwithobjectivityandmathematicalcalculation,riskanalysisinfinanceleavesalottobedesired.RiskanalysisinfinancetheoryTosummarisethepresentunderstandingofriskinfinance,theonlywaytodosoreasonablyistolistvarioustopicsunderwhichriskiscovered.Theseare:—individualpreferencesandattitudestorisk:riskaverse,riskneutral,riskseeker—portfoliotheory:riskasvarianceofreturn,riskreductionthroughdiversification,betariskandthecapitalassetpricingmodel—optionvolatilityandtheriskofderivativesecurities—measuringriskusingprobabilitytheory:state-preferencetheory—riskmanagement:hedgingstrategies,bonddurationandvolatility,portfolioinsurance—differenttypesofassetriskeginterestraterisk,marketrisk,credit/defaultrisk.Theabovelistoftopicsdemonstratesthepartialanddisjointedunderstandingofriskinfinance.Oneofthecentralconcernsoffinanceisthevaluationofsecurities,andriskisonlyreallyexaminedandexploredtotheextentthatitinfluencesthevaluation.However,examinedfromasocietalperspective,theimportanceattachedtovaluationisdirectlytiedtothebeliefinefficientmarketsasameansofresolvingsocialproblems.Thispreceptisthesubjectofdebateinthesocialsciences.Theassumptionthatifefficientandcompetitivemarketscanbeensuredthenthereisnoneedtoworryaboutriskseemsfar-fetched,especiallywhensystemicrisksareexamined.Onindividualattitudestorisk,adescriptionisgivenofdifferenttypesofriskpositionsadopted:risk-averse,riskneutralandriskseeker.Individualsareriskaverseiftheyintendtomatchriskwithrewardandwouldonlytakeonmoreriskifthereisanexpectationofahigherreturn.Riskneutralindividualsareindifferenttowardsrisk,andriskseekersarethosewholovetotakeonrisk,evenifthereturnsmaynotbecommensuratelyhigh.Theanalysisthengoesontoassumethatmostindividualsareriskaverse,andthisisthebasisforthesubsequentmeasurementofrisk.Noempiricalproofisprovidedofthisassumption,noristhereanyquestioningofthelinkbetweenriskandfinancialreward,thereisanimplicitassumptionthatrisksareacceptableprovidedtherearehighpotentialrewards.Intermsofriskmeasurement,thebreakthroughinfinancewasmadebyMarkowitzwhenhesuggestedthatriskcanbemeasuredbystandarddeviation,andassumingassetreturnsarenormallydistributed,thisopenedupawholeseriesoftechniquesofriskmeasurementusingstandardstatisticalandmathematicalmethods.Theentiredistributionofreturnsofanassetcouldnowbedescribedbytwostatistics,meanandstandarddeviation.Thequestionastowhetherstandarddeviationisanadequateorcompletemeasureofrisk,orwhethertheassumptionofnormaldistributionofassetreturnsisempiricallyvalid,wassomehowignoredorseentobetootrivial.Similarly,thefocusondistributionofreturnsdetachedtheissueofindividualorsocietalpreferencesandattitudestowardsriskfromthemeasurementofrisk.Anotherapproachusedtoevaluateriskisthroughtheapplicationofthemathematicsofprobabilitytheory.Probabilitiesofalternativestatesofnatureandstate-contingentpayoffsforindividualsecuritiescanbecombinedtocalculatevalueswhenoutcomesareuncertain.ThemajorbreakthroughforthevaluationofderivativesecuritiescamefromtheBlack-Scholesoptionpricingmodel.Hullexplainsthatthismodelwasabreakthroughbecausetheoutcomewasindependentofindividualriskpreferences.Thekeytotheformulawastheassumptionofrisk-neutrality.Hullarguesthatalthoughtheassumptionwasnecessaryforthederivationoftheformula,theoutcomeisindependentofriskpreferences,andthatiswhytheBlack-Scholesformulaissuchamajorbreakthrough.Theemphasisonriskmanagementandthesub-categorisationofrisks—interestraterisk,marketrisk,creditrisk—areallattemptsatgrapplingwiththerealityofspecificrisksastheyaffectfirmsandindividuals.Forexample,forbankers,theevaluationofcreditriskisparamountiftheyaretomakeprofitablelendingdecisions.Techniquesforevaluatingthesehaveevolvedinfinancewhichprovidesusefulinroadsintotheassessmentofdefault.Thus,quitesophisticatedmethodsofriskanalysishaveevolvedinareaswherethereiscommercialbenefitfromaccurateanalysis.However,suchapproachesdonotalwaysenhancethescientificknowledgebaseofthefundamentalcomponentsoffinancialriskandhowtheyinterrelate.DimensionsoffinancialriskTheOxfordDictionarydefinesriskasa'chanceofhazard,orofbadconsequences,loss...'thisbroaddefinitionissimilartotheworkingdefinitionoffinancialriskinthispaper,iethe'riskorchanceoflosingmoney'.Thepointcou