财政风险_一个分析框架

:(100036):,,,,:,,,,,,:,,,,,,,,2000,20012002,,,,,,,11,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,3220035,,,,:,,,,,,,,,,,,,21,,,():,,,,,,(),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,B.J.ReedJohnW.Swain(),,,,,,,,,,,,(),,,,,42::,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,31,,,,,:(1),;(2),;(3),,,,,,,,,2000200120%,2002,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,41,(),,,,,5220035,,,,,,,,:,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,80,90HanaPolackovaBrixi,,,,(1),:,,:,,,(),,(),,62::::(1998):(1999):(2000),,,,,,90,1997:,,,1()()()11()21()31()11()21()314151()()11()21,31,4111()21()3141()51()61()71:HanaPolackovaBrixiandAllenSchick(2002),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,HannaBrixi,7220035,,HanaBrixi,,,,,,,,,,,,,,11,:(1),,;,,,,,,,,,,,,,,(2),:,,,,,,,,,,,,(),,,,,,,,,:,,,,,(),,,82::,,,,50%,,;50%,,,,,,,21,,,,,,,,,,,,,(,2002),:,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,?11,,,,,,20,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,922003521,,,,,,,,,,,,,,(),(),,,,(),,,31,,,,,,;,;,,,,,,,,11,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,03::;;,,,,,,21IMF,,,,,,,,,,(),,,,,,,,,,,,,,2002::,5,1997::,,,2002::,,2000::,,2000:,11HanaPolakovaBrixi.1998,ContingentGovernmentLiabilities:AHiddenRiskforFiscalStability.TheWorldBank.HanaPolakovaBrixi.2000,ContingentGovernmentLiabilities:AFiscalThreattotheCzechRepublic.TheWorldBank.HanaPolakovaBrixiandAllenSchick,2002,GovernmentatRisk:ContingentLiabilitiesandFiscalRisk.TheWorldBank.AllenSchick.2000,BudgetingforFiscalRisk.TheWorldBank.(:)(:)1320035AbstractsofPapersinEnglishSavingBehaviorinaTransitionEconomy:AnEmpiricalCaseStudyofRuralChinaWanaGuanghua,ShibQinghua&TangcSumei(UnitedNationsUniversity,Australia)(ShanghaiJiaotongUniversity)(GriffithUniversity,Australia)Usingalargesetofhouseholdlevelsurveydata,thispaperexploresdeterminantsofsavingbehaviourinruralChina.Therichspecificationofthemodel,necessarilyadhoc,enablesconsiderationofanextensivearrayofvariables.Itisfoundthat(a)liquidityconstraints,precautionarymotivesandindustrialisationcontributepositivelytotheunusuallyhighsavingrateinChina;(b)cultureisasignificantfactorinhelpingexplaininter-regionaldifferencesinsavingrate;(c)thelifecyclehypothesisisrejectedsinceaU2pattern,contrarytothecommonlyclaimedhump,isdiscovered;and(d)thepermanentincomehypothesisisnotacceptedaswealthisfoundtobenegativelyrelatedtosavings.KeyWords:householdsaving;adhocmodel;heterogeneity;ChinaJELClassification:D910,P340,Q120OpportunisticRestructuringandRegulationRigidityChenXinyuan,YePengfei,ChenDonghua(ShanghaiUniversityofFinanceandEconomics,UniversityofWisconsin)Using1202restructuringsamplesofcompanieslistedinShanghaiStockExchange,thispaperintendstoexploretherelationbetweenrestructuringandgovernmentregulation.WefindthattheregulatorstickstoROE,whichwassetupduringtheperiodofeconomyoverheat,toregulatefirm2levelSEOactivities,althoughtherealeconomygrowthhasdecreasedalotduringlate1990s.Therigidityofregulationmotivateslistedcompaniestorestructureopportunistically.Ourfindingscanbeviewedasnewevidenceagainstsubstitutingregulation.KeyWords:Opportunistic;Restructuring;RegulationRigidityJELClassification:G340,G380FrameworkonChinasFiscalRiskLiuShangxi(InstituteofFiscelResearch,MinistryofFinance)Inthispaper,theauthorpresentsafiscal2riskframeworkbasedontheconceptionthatthegovernmentisapublicentityinsteadofaneconomicentity.Intheopinionoftheauthor,fiscalriskemergeswhenprivateriskdevelopsintopublicrisk,anditisrelevanttoinstitutionalevolvement.Twoaspectswillbediscussedwhenevaluatingfiscalrisk.Thefirstisaboutpublicresourcesownedbythegovernment,andthesecondisaboutitsresponsibilityandobligationonpublicexpenditureasitismeaninglesstoonlyconcernthepublicdebt.TheauthoralsopointsoutthatfiscalriskinChinaspreadswidelyduetoinstitutionalflawswherethebasicruleforthesymmetryofreturnandriskhasalreadybeendestroyedandvariousrisksarethusgeneratedandcentralized.Finally,theauthorarguesthattheemphasesofreforminthenearfuturearetocreaterisk.KeyWords:PublicEntity;PublicRisk;ResponsibilityandObligationonPublicExpenditure;Risk2constrainingMechanismJELClassification:H540,H620,H63019