财政风险:一个分析框架

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:刘尚希(100036):政府既是一个经济主体,也是一个公共主体,本文从公共主体身份出发,构建了一个财政风险的理论分析框架,区别于政府以经济主体身份承担的财政风险财政风险是私人风险转化为公共风险时的产物财政风险的大小与制度变迁的速度有关评估财政风险应从两个方面入手:一是政府拥有的公共资源,二是政府应承担的公共支出责任和义务,就债务论债务是没有意义的我国的财政风险处于发散的状态,呈不断扩大的趋势,原因在于制度缺陷导致的风险大锅饭,破坏了收益与风险对称的基本规则,从而形成了一种风险累积和集中的机制今后改革的重心在于建立不同层面的风险约束机制:公共主体公共风险公共责任与义务风险约束机制,,,,,,,,2000,20012002,,,,,,,1,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,2320035,,,,:政府拥有的公共资源不足以履行其应承担的支出责任和义务,以至于经济社会的稳定与发展受到损害的一种可能性,,,,,,,,,,,,2,,,():,,,,,,(),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,B.J.ReedJohnW.Swain(),,,,,,,,,,,,(),,,,,24::,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,3,,,,,:(1),;(2),;(3),,,,,,,,,2000200120%,2002,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,4,(),,,,,2520035,,,,,,,,:,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,80,90HanaPolackovaBrixi,,,,(1),:,,:,,,(),,(),,26::::(1998):(1999):(2000),,,,,,90,1997:,,,表1政府财政风险矩阵债务直接负债(在任何条件下存在的债务)或有负债(在特定事件发生情况下的债务)显性的(由法律和合约确认的政府负债)1国家债务(中央政府借款和发行的债券)2预算涵盖的开支(非随意性支出)3法律规定的长期性支出(公务员工资和养老金)1国家对非主权借款地方政府公共部门和私人部门实体(发行银行)的债务担保2国家对各种贷款(抵押贷款学生贷款农业贷款和小企业贷款)的保护性担保3国家对贸易和汇率的承诺担保4国家对私人投资的担保5国家保险体系(存款保险私人养老基金收入农作物保险洪灾保险战争风险保险)隐性的(反映公众和利益集团压力的政府道义责任)1未来公共养老金(与公务员养老金相对的)2社会保障计划,如果不是由法律做出硬性规定3未来保健融资计划,如果不是由法律做出硬性的规定4公共投资项目的未来日常维护成本1地方政府或公共实体私营实体非担保债务(义务)的违约2银行破产(超出政府保险以外的救助)3实行私有化的实体债务的清偿4非担保养老基金就业基金或社会保障基金(对小投资者的保护)的破产5中央银行可能的负净值或对所承担义务(外汇合约货币保护国际收支差额)不能履行6其他紧急财政援助(如在私人资本外逃的情况下)7改善环境灾害救济军事拨款:HanaPolackovaBrixiandAllenSchick(2002),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,HannaBrixi,2720035,,HanaBrixi,,,,,,,,,,,,,,1,:(1),,;,,,,,,,,,,,,,,(2),:,,,,,,,,,,,,(),,,,,,,,,:,,,,,(),,,28::,,,,50%,,;50%,,,,,,,2,,,,,,,,,,,,,(,2002),:,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,?1,,,,,,20,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,29200352,,,,,,,,,,,,,,(),(),,,,(),,,3,,,,,,;,;,,,,,,,,1,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,30::;;,,,,,,2IMF,,,,,,,,,,(),,,,,,,,,,,,,,2002::,5,1997::,,,2002::,,2000::,,2000:,11HanaPolakovaBrixi.1998,ContingentGovernmentLiabilities:AHiddenRiskforFiscalStability.TheWorldBank.HanaPolakovaBrixi.2000,ContingentGovernmentLiabilities:AFiscalThreattotheCzechRepublic.TheWorldBank.HanaPolakovaBrixiandAllenSchick,2002,GovernmentatRisk:ContingentLiabilitiesandFiscalRisk.TheWorldBank.AllenSchick.2000,BudgetingforFiscalRisk.TheWorldBank.(责任编辑:晓峰)(校对:子璇)3120035AbstractsofPapersinEnglishSavingBehaviorinaTransitionEconomy:AnEmpiricalCaseStudyofRuralChinaWanaGuanghua,ShibQinghua&TangcSumei(UnitedNationsUniversity,Australia)(ShanghaiJiaotongUniversity)(GriffithUniversity,Australia)Usingalargesetofhouseholdlevelsurveydata,thispaperexploresdeterminantsofsavingbehaviourinruralChina.Therichspecificationofthemodel,necessarilyadhoc,enablesconsiderationofanextensivearrayofvariables.Itisfoundthat(a)liquidityconstraints,precautionarymotivesandindustrialisationcontributepositivelytotheunusuallyhighsavingrateinChina;(b)cultureisasignificantfactorinhelpingexplaininter-regionaldifferencesinsavingrate;(c)thelifecyclehypothesisisrejectedsinceaUpattern,contrarytothecommonlyclaimedhump,isdiscovered;and(d)thepermanentincomehypothesisisnotacceptedaswealthisfoundtobenegativelyrelatedtosavings.KeyWords:householdsaving;adhocmodel;heterogeneity;ChinaJELClassification:D910,P340,Q120OpportunisticRestructuringandRegulationRigidityChenXinyuan,YePengfei,ChenDonghua(ShanghaiUniversityofFinanceandEconomics,UniversityofWisconsin)Using1202restructuringsamplesofcompanieslistedinShanghaiStockExchange,thispaperintendstoexploretherelationbetweenrestructuringandgovernmentregulation.WefindthattheregulatorstickstoROE,whichwassetupduringtheperiodofeconomyoverheat,toregulatefirmlevelSEOactivities,althoughtherealeconomygrowthhasdecreasedalotduringlate1990s.Therigidityofregulationmotivateslistedcompaniestorestructureopportunistically.Ourfindingscanbeviewedasnewevidenceagainstsubstitutingregulation.KeyWords:Opportunistic;Restructuring;RegulationRigidityJELClassification:G340,G380FrameworkonChinasFiscalRiskLiuShangxi(InstituteofFiscelResearch,MinistryofFinance)Inthispaper,theauthorpresentsafiscalriskframeworkbasedontheconceptionthatthegovernmentisapublicentityinsteadofaneconomicentity.Intheopinionoftheauthor,fiscalriskemergeswhenprivateriskdevelopsintopublicrisk,anditisrelevanttoinstitutionalevolvement.Twoaspectswillbediscussedwhenevaluatingfiscalrisk.Thefirstisaboutpublicresourcesownedbythegovernment,andthesecondisaboutitsresponsibilityandobligationonpublicexpenditureasitismeaninglesstoonlyconcernthepublicdebt.TheauthoralsopointsoutthatfiscalriskinChinaspreadswidelyduetoinstitutionalflawswherethebasicruleforthesymmetryofreturnandriskhasalreadybeendestroyedandvariousrisksarethusgeneratedandcentralized.Finally,theauthorarguesthattheemphasesofreforminthenearfuturearetocreaterisk.KeyWords:PublicEntity;PublicRisk;ResponsibilityandObligationonPublicExpenditure;RiskconstrainingMechanismJELClassification:H540,H620,H63091

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