中国胃癌死亡率20年变化情况分析及其发展趋势预测

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:(852914201207):100021,();();();()2020,2070909011.0%,6.3%;70,9037.0%;9022.2%26.7%,26.4%22.1%,9070,90()12,44.0%(12/27);,;6(),,27();,,;,203059,60,/;AnalysisofmortalityrateofstomachcanceranditstrendintwentyyearsinChinaSUNXiu2di3,MURen,ZHOUYou2shang,DAIXu2dong,ZHANGSi2wei,HUANGFUXiao2mei,SUNJie,LILian2di,LUFeng2zhu,QIAOYou2lin.3CancerInstitute(Hospital),ChineseAcademyofMedicalSciences,PekingUnionMedicalCollege,Beijing100021,ChinaAbstractObjectiveToanalyzeandpredictthetrendinmortalityrateofstomachcancerintwentyyearsinChina.MethodsStomachcancermortalitydatacollectedfromtheChinanationalsurveyovertheperiod1970s21990sforthecauseofdeathwereanalyzed.ResultsTheadjustedmortalityrateofstomachcancerin1990sincreasedby11.0%and6.3%formalesandfemales,respectively.Theurbanmortalityin1970swasslightlyhigherthantheruralmortality,whilein1990stheruralmortalityratewasabout60%higherthantheurbanmortality.In1990s,theadjustedurbanmortalityratedecreasedby22.2%and26.7%formalesandfemales,respectively.Incontrast,theruralmortalityrateincreasedby26.4%and22.1%formalesandfemales,respectively.Thesexratioofstomachcancerdeathsin1990s,bothincitiesandruralareas,wasslightlygreaterthanthatin1970s,beingmoremarkedinthelatterareas.In1990s,themortalityratedecreasedin12provinces,accountingfor44%inbothsexes(12/27),butthedecreasewasmoremarkedforfemalesthanformalesexceptinKiangsprovince.Inprovinceswheretheincreasedratesrankedtopsixpositions,themagnitudeofincreaseinrateswashigherinmalesthaninfemales.ConclusionTheoverallmortalityratesofstomachcancerinthepast20yearsinChinapresentedanincreasingtrend,despitetherewereupwardanddownwardchangesin27provincesanddecreaseincitieswhileincreaseinruralareas.Comparedwithothercountries,theworld2adjustedmortalityrateofstomachcancerforbothsexesinChinaranksfirst.Theincreasingtrendinstomachcancermortalitywasseenintheolderagegroups(60years)whileadecreasingtrendwasseenintheyoungeragegroups(30259years).AgingofthepopulationcouldbeanimportantfactorresponsiblefortheincreaseinmortalityratesofstomachcancerinChina.SubjectwordsStomachneoplasms/mortality;China,2070420041261ChinJOncol,January2004,Vol26,No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hinJOncol,January2004,Vol26,No.1,;,()3049:,5074:(2)(2):1529:,,;3054:,4044,;5584:60,(3)4.:90()22090(1/10)70()197319751990199219701990(%)25.714.320.21.825.213.219.41.9-1.8-7.4-3.715190.20.10.11.90.20.10.11.1-11.855.60.020240.50.60.50.80.40.50.50.9-8.5-16.1-11.825291.21.31.21.01.51.81.60.819.843.730.730343.32.93.11.12.72.92.81.0-18.3-2.4-11.235397.95.46.71.55.15.35.21.0-36.3-1.5-22.7404416.310.313.51.610.87.29.11.5-34.2-29.6-32.6454934.715.625.82.219.610.315.11.9-43.5-34.2-41.4505465.530.949.22.136.915.826.52.3-43.7-49.0-46.15559110.950.582.32.267.629.149.12.3-39.0-42.3-40.36064175.677.4127.22.3122.550.787.92.4-30.3-34.5-30.96569235.1108.4169.72.2188.878.7133.92.4-19.7-27.4-21.17074287.9138.0204.42.1270.3116.5189.92.3-6.1-15.6-7.17579288.2155.1209.41.9303.2137.5210.32.25.2-11.40.48084206.4123.4152.51.7300.5142.5203.02.145.615.533.185375.7223.1276.51.7321.3131.1189.72.5-14.5-41.2-31.4:(%)=(90)-(70)/(70)100%32090(1/10)70()197319751990199219701990(%)24.813.419.21.935.518.327.21.943.237.141.615190.20.20.21.00.30.20.21.9100.06.760.020240.50.50.51.10.90.70.81.274.060.968.825291.00.91.01.21.51.51.51.045.166.354.230343.72.63.21.43.52.73.11.3-4.13.1-1.035399.05.67.41.68.35.77.01.5-8.51.8-4.8404420.910.916.01.920.410.515.62.0-2.4-4.1-2.5454944.019.632.02.241.921.332.12.0-4.88.30.2505476.334.755.62.275.334.856.22.2-1.40.41.25559129.351.890.52.5134.354.095.82.53.94.45.96064173.973.8122.02.4214.690.3153.82.423.522.426.16569212.597.7151.62.2285.2124.5203.32.334.227.434.07074237.9114.2168.72.1379.8168.4265.82.359.747.457.67579205.0123.7158.41.7370.8175.7258.82.180.942.063.48084135.399.1112.61.4354.3187.9250.31.9161.989.7122.385242.1176.1200.71.4309.0171.9214.61.827.6-2.46.9:(%)=(90)-(70)/(70)100%70,(),(),()(),,,112.1110.319.9()12(-),36.5%(-34.2%,-42.0%);,35.4%(-29.1%,-43.2%);,2.7%(-4.2%,-3.8%)620041261ChinJOncol,January2004,Vol26,No.1(+)6():+105.0%(+123.6%,+71.9%)+84.0%(+86.9%,+82.4%)+70.5%(+75.8%,+59.1%)+58.0%(+60.9%,+49.7%)+44.0%(+45.1%,+39.5%)+40.5%(+46.8%,+28.9%)(4)4(1/10)90707090(%)7090(%)7090(%)25.127.130.711.013.713.024.16.319.519.828.810.021.719.9-8.3-29.19.17.5-23.2-39.615.413.4-12.6-32.422.821.7-2.3-34.211.710.2-15.5-42.017.315.6-7.2-36.526.824.630.
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