中国航空制造业未来发展的路径选择

南京航空航天大学硕士学位论文中国航空制造业未来发展的路径选择姓名：汪文飞申请学位级别：硕士专业：产业经济学指导教师：马杰20080301iiiABSTRACTAviationmanufacturingindustryisahigh-techindustrywithhighinput,highvalue-addedandhigh-riskindustrialfeatureswhichhaseffectsonthenationaleconomyandsecurityof.Aviationindustryisthepillarofnationalindependence,thecountrymustattachgreatimportancetothestrategicindustry,Forsuchawideterritoryofthepeople'spowerinparticular.Independentandpowerfulaviationmanufacturingindustryisnotonlyofgreatpoliticalsignificance,butalsoofimportantsupporttosustainedeconomicgrowthandtheadvancedstructure.Therehaveallkindsofviewsaboutdevelopingtheaviationmanufacturingindustryinourcountry.Withregardtothisissueofdevelopingouraviationmanufacturingindustryornot,theviewsofvariousexpertsarebasicallysame,thatis,wemustdevelopChineseaviationmanufacturingindustry.AndhowtodevelopChineseaviationmanufacturingindustry,therearetoomanyopinionsanddifferences,includingmilitaryairplaneorcivilairplane,trunkairplaneorregionalairplane,internationalcooperationorindigenousdevelopment,andhowtoselectlocation.Thispaperanalyzesthedevelopmentstrategyoftherelevantnationalaviationmanufacturingindustry,RecallingthedevelopmentprocessofChineseaviationmanufacturingindustry,andanalyzingthesupplyanddemand;foreignaircraftmanufacturingcompaniesmonopolizeouraviationmarket;thepresentandfuturedemandofChinesecivilaviationisverylarge,whichprovidesthemarketopportunitiesfordevelopingChineseaviationmanufacturingindustry.Inaddition,thispaperpresentsthethreemajordirectionsdevelopmenttoChineseaviationmanufacturingindustrydevelopment:indigenousdevelopmentisainevitablechoiceofChineseaviationmanufacturingindustry;thelargeregionaljetsisabreakthroughtodevelopingChineseaviationmanufacturingindustry;walkingtheroadtoindustryadjustmentupgradesChineseaviationmanufacturingindustrycompetitiveness.Keywords:aviationmanufacturingindustrydevelopmentstrategysupplyanddemandanalysispathselectionindustryadjustment,()11.11.1.12005120150A3201002020061204118073752200511863534400200683010050ERJ-14550E-19027.258020062020151620071.1.221.231.31.3.120012001200120022001[J]20011128-30[J]2001528-30[J]200227-104200220042004200520051999[J]2002355-59[J]2004110-12[J]2004360-63[J]2005511-15[J]20055023-2752006(15)2005201.3.2Harm-JanSteenhuisErikJ.deBruijn[J]2006415-18[J]2005410-16Developingcountriesandtheaircraftindustry:matchormismatch?TechnologyinSociety,Volume23,Issue4,November2001,Pages551-562Harm-JanSteenhuisandErikJ.deBruijn6DAVEGILIETTH.O.SEKLERKeithHaywardRobertJ.CarbaughRichardW.MoxonThomasRoehlJ.FrederickTruittEmilioEspositoIntroducingtechnologicallyadvancedproducts:Strategiesinthecommercialaircraftindustry,TechnologicalForecastingandSocialChange,Volume48,Issue2,February1995,Pages129-141DaveGillettandH.O.SteklerAirbus:TwentyYearsofEuropeanCollaboration,ForeignAffairs,Winter1987,Pages11-26KeithHaywardStrategicTradePolicyAndCommercialJetAircraft,TheInternationalTradeJournal,VolumeVII,No.4,Summer1993,Pages393-408RobertJ.Carbaugh.InternationalCompetitionInHighTechnology:TheBrazilianAircraftIndustry,InternationalMarketingReview,Summer1987,Pages7-20RichardW.MoxonJapaneseIndustrialPolicyInAircraftManufacturing,InternationalMarketingReview,Summer1987,Pages21-32ThomasRoehl&J.FrederickTruittStrategicalliancesandinternationalizationintheaircraftmanufacturingindustry,TechnologicalForecastingandSocialChange,Volume71,Issue5,June2004,Pages443-468EmilioEsposito7JorgeNiose&MajlindaZhegu1.41.5aggregationeconomy19AerospaceClusters:LocalorGlobalKnowledgeSpillovers?IndustryandInnovation,Vol.12,No.1,125,March,2005Pages5-29JorgeNiose&MajlindaZhegu81.5.11909:1.5.21.5.319489():1.5.42070-801998:102.1B-707KC-135LockheedC-141L-5001994NorthropGrummanLockheedMartin1997Lockheed-MartinNorthrop-Grumman19962.211SE.2010763SE.2010196211FAR1979.1977A300B20011EADSBAEsystems20012AIS[M]19945122.31969770ERJ145ERJ135ERJ140ERJ145ERJ170ERJ175ERJ190ERJ195[M]199476-77131949Y7MA60Y8Y10737747757A310A320A330/340ATR42/723.119511954195012195121941719511954195471153.21955197619545147565819661071970125071969108519741287819645555655656196119761673.31977197081980919831080/90100200520101801560ARJ21164.14.1.14.120=/GDP11.8GDP2/3[J]20066817GDP1/3101996-20053%5.2%GDP1.73GDP1%1.734.120GDPGDP%%19868.821.82.48198711.631.02.67198811.314.01.2419894.1-11.1-2.7019903.821.65.6819919.228.33.08199214.233.62.37199313.519.51.44199412.614.11.12199510.522.32.1219969.612.81.3319978.87.50.8519987.87.30.9419997.114.11.9920008.015.41.9220017.515.32.0420028.316.82.0220039.53.600.3820049.535.23.70200510.213.11.28200610.516.01.52GDP1996-2000GDP8.6%11.4%2001-2005GDP9.5%16.4%201050014%[J]2007172184.1.2195019789020017524200513827105.7%15.5%200197.52005182.4152.6%20.4%200633197.316.729934.3173263.014.6200655.02%2006-201020102.714.5%4.21997-2006%199756301.4485199857552.2523199960945.95102000672210.35272001752411.95662002859414.2602200387591.966420041212338.475420051382714.186320061600015.7103910200610392006[J]2007237192030004.1.319771950767197819786381520063405390200420054.3A300F23978B737-300QC41664B737-300QC716112B747