项目风险管理准则

ProjectRiskManagementGuidelines0470_022817_01_prexvi.fmPageiWednesday,September8,20047:59PMTEAMLinG-Live,Informative,Non-costandGenuine!0470_022817_01_prexvi.fmPageiiWednesday,September8,20047:59PMTEAMLinG-Live,Informative,Non-costandGenuine!ProjectRiskManagementGuidelinesManagingRiskinLargeProjectsandComplexProcurementsDaleF.Cooper,StephenGrey,GeoffreyRaymondandPhilWalkerBroadleafCapitalInternational0470_022817_01_prexvi.fmPageiiiWednesday,September8,20047:59PMTEAMLinG-Live,Informative,Non-costandGenuine!Copyright©2005JohnWiley&SonsLtd,TheAtrium,SouthernGate,Chichester,WestSussexPO198SQ,EnglandTelephone([phone]Email(forordersandcustomerserviceenquiries):[e-mail]@wiley.co.uk,orfaxedto([phone].Designationsusedbycompaniestodistinguishtheirproductsareoftenclaimedastrademarks.Allbrandnamesandproductnamesusedinthisbookaretradenames,servicemarks,trademarksorregisteredtrademarksoftheirrespectiveowners.ThePublisherisnotassociatedwithanyproductorvendormentionedinthisbook.Thispublicationisdesignedtoprovideaccurateandauthoritativeinformationinregardtothesubjectmattercovered.ItissoldontheunderstandingthatthePublisherisnotengagedinrenderingprofessionalservices.Ifprofessionaladviceorotherexpertassistanceisrequired,theservicesofacompetentprofessionalshouldbesought.OtherWileyEditorialOfficesJohnWiley&SonsInc.,111RiverStreet,Hoboken,NJ07030,USAJossey-Bass,989MarketStreet,SanFrancisco,CA94103-1741,USAWiley-VCHVerlagGmbH,Boschstr.12,D-69469Weinheim,GermanyJohnWiley&SonsAustraliaLtd,33ParkRoad,Milton,Queensland4064,AustraliaJohnWiley&Sons(Asia)PteLtd,2ClementiLoop#02-01,JinXingDistripark,Singapore129809JohnWiley&SonsCanadaLtd,22WorcesterRoad,Etobicoke,Ontario,CanadaM9W1L1Wileyalsopublishesitsbooksinavarietyofelectronicformats.Somecontentthatappearsinprintmaynotbeavailableinelectronicbooks.LibraryofCongressCataloginginPublicationDataProjectriskmanagementguidelines:managingriskinlargeprojectsandcomplexprocurements/DaleCooper...[etal.].p.cm.Includesbibliographicalreferencesandindex.ISBN0-470-02281-7(cloth:alk.paper)1.Riskmanagement.2.Projectmanagement.3.Industrialprocurement—Management.I.Cooper,DaleF.HD61.P7652004658.15’5—dc222004011338BritishLibraryCataloginginPublicationDataAcataloguerecordforthisbookisavailablefromtheBritishLibraryISBN0-470-02281-7Typesetin10/12ptGaramondbyIntegraSoftwareServicesPvt.Ltd,Pondicherry,IndiaPrintedandboundinGreatBritainbyAntonyRoweLtd,Chippenham,WiltshireThisbookisprintedonacid-freepaperresponsiblymanufacturedfromsustainableforestryinwhichatleasttwotreesareplantedforeachoneusedforpaperproduction.0470_022817_01_prexvi.fmPageivWednesday,September8,20047:59PMTEAMLinG-Live,Informative,Non-costandGenuine!CONTENTSForewordviiPrefaceixAbouttheauthorsxiiiIntroductiontoprojectriskmanagement1PartIThebasicsofprojectriskmanagement111Theprojectriskmanagementapproach132Establishthecontext193Riskidentification374Qualitativeriskassessment455Semi-quantitativeriskassessment596Risktreatment737Monitoringandreview898Communicationandreporting939Projectprocessesandplans10110Simplifyingtheprocess10911Managingopportunities12512Otherapproachestoprojectriskmanagement137PartIIExtendingthebasicprocess14513Casestudy:tenderevaluation14714Contractsandriskallocation16115Markettestingandoutsourcing17116Public–privatepartnershipsandprivatefinancing18317Technicaltoolsandtechniques20318Introductiontoenvironmentalriskmanagement225PartIIIQuantificationofprojectrisks24919Introductiontoquantificationforprojectrisks25120Cost-estimatingcasestudies26321Casestudy:planningatimberdevelopment27922Capitalevaluationforlargeresourceprojects2950470_022817_01_prexvi.fmPagevWednesday,September8,20047:59PMTEAMLinG-Live,Informative,Non-costandGenuine!viContents23Riskanalysisandeconomicappraisal31124Conclusions321PartIVAdditionalinformationandsupportingmaterial32925Riskmanagementprocesschecklist33126Worksheetsandevaluationtables33527Examplesofrisksandtreatments357Glossary371References375Index3790470_022817_01_prexvi.fmPageviWednesday,September8,20047:59PMTEAMLinG-Live,Informative,Non-costandGenuine!FOREWORDProjectriskmanagementhascomealongwaysincethe1980s,whenDaleCooperandIworkedtogetheronarangeofriskmanagementconsultancyprojectsintheUK,CanadaandtheUSA,publishedtogether,andbecamefriendsaswellascolleagues.Inparticular,theleadingedgehasmovedfrombespokemethodsandmodelsdevelopedforparticularorganizationsandsituationstowardsgenericprocesses.Ithasa