中国iptv行业发展博弈研究

上海交通大学硕士学位论文中国IPTV行业发展博弈研究姓名：王卓铭申请学位级别：硕士专业：传播学指导教师：李彩英200701014IPTVIPTVIPTVIPTVIPTVIPTVIPTVIPTVIPTV5RESEARCHONTHEDEVELOPMENTOFCHINAIPTVINDUSTRYFROMGAMETHEORYVIEWABSTRACTThestrategyofdigitalizationofTVandradiodrawstheattentiontotheDTVanditsimplement.BesidesthecableDTV,thesatelliteDTVandthewirelessDTV,IPTVisalsoapotentialsolutionofDTV.IPTV,combiningtheadvantagesofbothTVandInternet,willprobablydevelopanewmarket.However,suchamaturetechnologypromoteslowerthanitshouldbeinChina.ThereasonliesinthesituationofinterdependenceofTVindustryandtelecommunicationindustryofChina,whichbringsIPTVonthehornsofdilemma.ThedissertationstartswiththeconceptofIPTV.ItanalyzestheindustrialvaluechainofIPTVandabstractsthecorepoint.Gametheoryisemployedtoresearchtherelationshipoftheparties,whichareTVdepartmentandtelecommunicationdepartment,inthecorepoint.Itisreadytofindoutthe6mainstreamfromthecomplexitytoconfirmthedominationofChinaIPTVindustry.ItalsousestheexperiencesfromothercountriesanddistrictsforreferencetoforecastthefutureofChinaIPTVindustryandtheintegrationoftelecommunication,computerandTVnetworks.KEYWORDSIPTVindustrialvaluechain,GameTheory,Integrationoftelecommunication,computerandTVNetworks2200739320073920073911.1IPTV1.1.120062010200620112003200520082015200594.48%95.81%20040.43%0.52%1.2620049648.31%112InternetIPTV20067200663011.237700IPTVInternetIPTVIPTV199975375IPTV1.1.2IPTVIPTVIPTV123IPTVIPTV1IPTV4231.21.2.1IPTVIPTV5GartnerIDCForrestMetaGroupJupiter-20011.2.290200451%IPTVIPIPTV6IPTV1.31.3.1(1)(2)IPTV(3)IPTV(4)IPTV1.3.21.4IPTVIPTV7IPTVIPTVIPTVIPTVIPTVIPTV8IPTV2.1IPTV2.1.1IPTVIPTVIPTriplePlayIPIPTVISOIPTVIPTVIPTVInternetProtocolTelevisionIPTVIPTVTVTVIPTVIPTVIPTVIPTVIPTVIPTVIPIPTVIPPCIPTV9IPTVIPTVIPTVIP2.1.2IPTVIPTVIPTVIPTV2.1.2.1IPTV,,IPTVMPEG-4ASPH.264VC-1AVSMPEG-4ASPH.264VC-1AVSIPTV10MPEG-4ASPH.264MPEG4H.2641.5M2M1.52MPEG4DVDH.2642003ITU-TISO/IEC20003000MPEG4H.264H.264MPEG4515%1.5MMPEG45%2MMPEG4IPTVMPEG4MPEG4H.2642.1.2.2IPTVCDNIPTVIPIPIPCDNDNSDNSCDNURLDNSDNSURLURLDNSCDNURLDNSIP11DNSDNSIPIP2.1CDN1CDNIPTV2.1.2.3IPTVIPTVDVBIPDVB/IPDVBIPCACAURLDNSDNS12IPTV2.2IPTV2.2.1IPTVIPTVIPTV20022004102003IPTV2004IPTV2005IPTVIPTVIPTVIPTVIPTV200520055IPTVIPTV200551713IPTVIPTVIPTV20051226(IPTV)IPTV2006110IPTVIPTV20033911IPTVIPTVIPTV20064IPTV2.2.2IPTVIPTVIPTVIPTVIPTV14IPTVIPTVIPTVIPTVIPTVIPTV14352004IPTV152006411IPTV2.3IPTVIPTVIPTVIPTVIPTV16IPTV3.1IPTV(MichaelE.Porter)1985,(industrialvaluechain)IPTVIPTVIPTV-17IPTV2IPTV3.1.1IPTVIPTVIPTV12IPTVIPTV6-8MbpsCATVIPTVHFCHFCHybridFiberCoaxial1849HFCAPRUIPTVIPTVIPTVIPTV3.1.2IPTVIPTVCDNIPTVIPTVMODEMBRASDSLAMIPTV19IPTVIPTV2005IPTVUTIPTVIPTV18IPTVIPTVIPTVIPTV3.1.3IPTV20IPTVIPTVIPTVIPTVIPTVIPTV213.1.4IPTV200595.81%20040.52%1256920049648.31%IPTV1392004275%IPTV3.2IPTV3.2.13N2122456IPTVIPTVN21N21N21237IPTVIPTVIPTVIPTVIPTVIPTVIPTV24IPTVIPTVIPTVIPTVIPTV3.2.2IPTVIPTVIPTV3.2.2.1”2583.2.2.2IPTVIPTV2005IPTV7.6IPTV17.3IPTVP2PIPTV263.2.2.3:IPTVIPTVIPTVIPTVIPTV3.2.2.4IPTVARPUIPTVIPTV273.2.2.5IPTVIPTV75%2IPTVIPTV3.2.2.63.3IPTVIPTV2IPTV200520051228IPTVDVDIPTVIPTVDVDHBOIPTVIPTVIPTVIPTVIPTVIPTVIPTVIPTV293.4IPTVIPTVIPTV30IPTV4.14.1.14.1.1.1GameTheory(Cournot)18381883(Bertrand)(VonNeumann)(Morgenstern)194420405019521953ShapleyGillies(JohnNash)31195019515070(Selten)19651975(Harsanyi)2080(Kreps)(Wilson)198219881991(Fudenberg)(JeanTirole)19944.1.1.2324.1.2IPTVIPTVIPTVIPTVIPTVIPTVIPTV1IPTVIPTV2IPTV3IPTV456IPTV334.2IPTV4.2.13MT1cc02xx3dp45x01/2()3199681773494.2.2IPTVxp-x-x-d+pxpIPTV{}{}IPTVIPTVxpIPTVT00Mx-c-xTx-c-p-x-d+p-c035PIPTV10x-c-p-c-PIPTV-x-d-x4.2.32005888.761234100004200620064Tx-c-P-x-d-c-P036IPTVIPTV4.3IPTV4.3.1IPTVMTIPTVMTIPTV37MT(ShakedandSutton1982)01[01]IPTVUP=(-P)3.1PIPTV0IPTVU0=0c4.3.200TM11IPTVIPTVIPTVIPTV1IPTVµIPTV38µIPTVIPTV3.1Uµ0=UµPT3.2µ0=(µ-PT)Tµ=0TTTζζζP−3.3UµPT=UµPM3.4(µ-PT)T=(µ-PM)Mµ=ΤΜΤΜ−−ζζζPζPTM3.5µµIPTVIPTV1µIPTVµIPTVDM=1-µ=1-ΤΜΤΜ−−ζζζPζPTM3.6DT=µ-µ=ΤΜΤΜ−−ζζζPζPTM-0TTTζζζP−3.7RM=(PM-c)*DM=(PM-c)−−−ΤΜΤΜζζζPζP1TM3.8RT=(PT-c)*DT=(PT-c)−−−−ΤΜΤΜ0TTTTMζζζζζζPζPP3.93.83.9MMPR∂∂TTPR∂∂39MMPR∂∂=0PM=MTTTMζ2ζPζ)c1(ζ+−+3.10TTPR∂∂=0PT=)ζζζ2(ζ2)ζζ(ζc)ζζ(ζPM0TTM0T0TMM−−−−−3.113.103.11*TP=)ζ3ζζ4(ζ)ζζ(ζc2]ζζ)c1)[(ζζ(0TMTM0TTM0T−−−−−+−3.12*MP=)ζ3ζζ4(ζ)]c2(ζ)c1(ζ2)[ζζ(0TMMTM0M−−−−+−3.131c1-0T0ζζζ2−123.83.9*MR=20TMM2M0TM)ζ3ζζ4(ζ]ζ)1c(2ζ)c2)[(ζζ(−−−+−−3.14*TR=20TM0TT2T00MTM)ζ3ζζ4)(ζζ(ζ]ζ)c1(ζ)c1)[(ζζ)(ζζ(−−−−−+−−3.154.3.3IPTV40TM1=MTζζIPTV01112=2ζζMT+IPTV2c=0*MR=2211022101]ζ)4ζ(2)ζ1(ζ3[]ζ4)ζ1(ζ2)[(ζ1(−++−+−3.16*TR=22110121102101]ζ)4ζ(2)ζ1(ζ3[ζ]ζζ2)ζ1(ζ][ζ2)ζ1(ζ)[ζ1(−++−+−+−3.171IPTV*MR1*MζR∂∂=3212100221222210210202120120202100)ζζ2ζ8ζζ3ζ3()ζζ4ζ8ζζζ2ζζζ20ζζ6ζζ3ζζ6ζ3)(ζ2ζζζ(4+−++++−−++−+−3.180IPTV200121ζ1ζζ+4111[0121ζ1ζζ+]00'0ζ0ζ0121ζ1ζζ+1*MζR∂∂0'0ζ00ζ1*MζR∂∂≥0IPTV0ζ121ζ1ζζ+IPTVIPTV0'0ζIPTV0121ζ1ζζ+'0ζ0ζ1*MζR∂∂42IPTVIPTVIPTV2IPTV*MR22*MζR∂∂=321102101210]ζ)ζ4(2)ζ1(ζ3[]ζ2)ζ1(ζ)[ζ1()ζ1(ζ16−−+−++−3.19IPTVIPTV'0ζ=00ζ=12ζ1ζ2+200121ζ1ζζ+011220ζ110121ζ1ζζ+'0ζ0ζ2ζR*M∂∂43IPTVIPTV3IPTVIPTVIPTVIPTVIPTVIPTV2IPTV4.3.4IPTVIPTVIPTVIPTVIPTV444.4IPTVIPTVIPTV20054.4.1IPTV12(R-c-a,R’-c-a)(R+b-c,R’-b-c)(R-b-c,R’+b-c)(R-c,R’-c)