兰德报告-俄罗斯政治经济发展展

PoliticalandEconomicOutlookforRussiaandtheFutureoftheAutomotiveIndustryJEREMYAZRAEL,KEITHCRANE,D.J.PETERSONWR-145March2004WORKINGPAPERThisproductispartoftheRANDEnterpriseAnalysisworkingpaperseries.RANDworkingpapersareintendedtoshareresearchers’latestfindingsandtosolicitinformalpeerreview.TheyhavebeenapprovedforcirculationbyRANDEnterpriseAnalysisbuthavenotbeenformallyeditedorpeerreviewed.Unlessotherwiseindicated,workingpaperscanbequotedandcitedwithoutpermissionoftheauthor,providedthesourceisclearlyreferredtoasaworkingpaper.RAND’spublicationsdonotnecessarilyreflecttheopinionsofitsresearchclientsandsponsors.isaregisteredtrademark.iiiPREFACEInearly2003,amultinationalfirmaskedRANDEnterpriseAnalysistoprovidetheirexecutivemanagementwithabroadoverviewofkeypoliticalandeconomictrendsandrisksintheRussianFederation.Theyalsorequestedanoverviewofkeydevelopmentsandtrendsintheautomotivesector.ThisWorkingPaperfocusesonpoliticalandeconomicdevelopmentsandtrendsinRussiasinceindependenceanddevelopmentsintheautomotivesector.ItalsoviewslikelyfuturedevelopmentsunderPresidentVladimirPutinthrough2008—theendofhissecondpresidentialterm.Inadditiontobusinessleaders,thispaperwouldbeofinteresttospecialistsandnon-specialistsingovernmentandresearch.vCONTENTSPrefaceiiiExecutiveSummaryvii1.PoliticalDevelopmentsandTrendsinRussia:TheFirst12Years1KeyPoliticalDevelopments2TheYeltsinLegacy:FirstTerm,1991–19964IndependencebyDefault4ThreatofSeparatismContained6NewPoliticalInstitutions8NewPoliticalCulture10ProblemsofTransitionCreateDissatisfaction12TheYeltsinLegacy:SecondTerm,1996–199914Yeltsin’sReelection14StateCaptureandCollapse16TheRiseofVladimirPutin18Putin’sPresidency:FirstTerm,2000–200420Putin’s2000ElectoralPlatform20Putin’sFirst-TermPerformance22December2003DumaElections24March2004PresidentialElections26Putin’sPresidency:SecondTerm,2004–200827PutinwillbeMoreAuthoritarian27PutinWillContinueLimitedEconomicReforms29Conclusion31PrincipalPoliticalandEconomicTrends,1992–200831KeyJudgements322.HowRichisRussia?HowMuchRicherwillitBe?34CurrentEconomicPerformance35RussiaFinallyEnjoyingSolidGrowth35RussiahasLeftSovietSystemBehind;U.S.,EUSayRussiaisaMarketEconomy37SourcesofGrowthHaveVariedDuringRecovery39IntermediateGoodsandRawMaterialsDriveGrowthinIndustrialOutput40Oil,GasandMetalsDominateRussianExports;EuropeanUnionistheMostImportantTradingPartner42ForGoodandBadReasons,Russia’sBalanceofPaymentsRemainsStrong44RussianEconomyNotThreatenedbyStrongerRuble45ByAnyMeasureRussianIncomesAreMuchLessthaninDevelopedMarketEconomies47HowWealthyareRussianConsumers?49UnemploymenthasFallenSharplySince1998Peak50KeyRisks52ConventionalWisdomConcerningMostDangerousRiskstotheRussianEconomy52InflationRemainsHighandaConcern53viRANDProjectsInflation,DepreciationWillSlow54FinancialCrisisLikelyin5Years,butMayNotHaltGrowth56$12BarrelOilWouldNotBeaCatastrophe58BusinessEnvironmentMustImproveforSustainedGrowth60FailuretoJoinWTOby2007WouldSlowGrowth61RAND’sEvaluationofRisks63Prospects64RussianEconomyProjectedtoGrow4percentAnnuallyAfter200464HowWealthyWillRussianConsumersBe?66DiscretionarySpendingWillRise673.OutlookfortheRussianCarMarketto202070WhoBuysCarsinRussia?70EarningsandSpendingPatterns72TheCarMarketisGrowingandShifting74RussianCarParkOld,ScrappageRatestoRise76WhatDoRussianCarBuyersWant?77Russia'sCarMarket:ThePresent79RussianCarSegments79ThankstoAvtoVAZ,TotalSalesofRussianCarsAreStillAbove800,000Units81UsedCarMarket83GrowthinDollarIncomesandConsumerFinanceDriveSalesofForeignMakes85RussianConsumersPreferReliabilityandLow-CostForeignMakes87AutomobileManufacturing:RussianandForeignManufacturersNowandintheFuture89ProductivityofRussianAutoMakersisLow,butForeignManufacturershavebeenMoreSuccessful89AvtoVAZisinPoorShape92RusPromAvtoandOtherManufacturers94ForeignInvestmentinAutomobileManufacturing96RussianAutomotiveRegulationsandBarrierstoTrade98RussiaIncreasedImportTariffsonOlderVehiclesin200298GovernmentSupportforIndustryTepid100GovernmentProvidesFewIncentivesforForeignInvestment102TheEUandRussia:ANewRelationship?104Russia'sCarMarket:TheFuture106ForecastMethodology106WhoWillBuyCarsinRussia?108SalesofRussianProducedForeignCarsProjectedtoGrowSharply110RussianCarBuyersAreProjectedtoMoveUpMarket112TheLow-CostCandBSegmentsaretheWaveofFuture,WhileSUV’swillRemainPopular113SummaryofKeyPoints117viiEXECUTIVESUMMARYThisWorkingPaperassessespoliticaldevelopmentsandtrendsinRussiasinceindependenceanddiscusseslikelyfuturedevelopmentsunderPresidentVladimirPutinthrough2008—theendofhissecondpresidentialterm.ItthenevaluatesthesourcesofrecenteconomicgrowthinRussiaandprojectseconomicoutputandpersonalincomesthrough2002.ThethirdsectionofthepaperanalyzestheRussiancarmarketandcarmanufacturingindustryandforecastsautomobilesalesbyvolumeandsegmentthrough2020.PoliticalDevelopmentsandTrendsinRussiaInsomerespects,thepoliticaltransitionsincetheendoftheformerSovietUnionhasgonebetterthanfeared.RussiadidnotdisintegrateastheUSSRdidandBorisYeltsinestablishedaninstitutionalframeworkandculturalbaselineforthepotentialemergenceo