协调发展的动态均衡模型(pdf13)

214AdynamicequilibriumModelofCoordinatedevelopmentAbstract:Theeconomicgrowthanddisparitysincetheonsetofeconomicreformsin1978havebeenremarkable.Thetraditionalwisdomdealwiththisphenomenonseparately.we,however,constructasimpledynamicequilibriummodeltoexplorethisphenomenoninthesameframework.Basedonthisframework,ourempiricalfindingsarecoincidedwiththecorrespondingliterature,butalsoprovidemoreinformationontheprocessofthecoordinatedevelopmentinChina,whichmayshedhighlightsonhowtoimplementthecoordinatedevelopment.Keywords:EconomicGrowth;CoordinateDevelopment;UrbanJELClassifications:O110,R130,R1101975.22005.22005.12004.52004.42002.1151027513926189594;020-84112173(O)[e-mail](2004)985105203200400010200303JDXM7900221420199419942002BarroGDPV12080901978-1998VJianetal19962002200220032004ββJianetal1996199820022003AzizDuenwald2001QuahQuah19931996Quah1996Jones1997Bourguignonetal,2002Kumaretal,2002Hendersonetal,2002Beadryetal2002200380Baumol(1986)Barro1992Mankiw1992Islam1995Temple199920041214Lucas19882002GDPTheil1978-1998V111800.750.800.850.900.951.001978198219861990199419980.200.250.300.350.40theil0.000.100.200.300.400.501978198219861990199419982002Theil2005GDPGDP120052005Sala-i-Martin2002200471GDPGDPGDP902004199920042n1(,,)ntttxxx=xt[]0,y[max()ty=x]0,yN12,,,Nsss()txπtnN1()()()tttNPxsxPxsπ===#1()1txπ≡∑1[]0,y[]0,yn20y()txπ2tisjtx1t+[]0,y11iix==12ixs21(,,,(iiititititpxssxssxs====}tττ=∞=NNNNPP××=)px++=NNPτ×τ)it{1P1tPππ+=21{},1,2,ttπ=Pππ=1{},1,2,txt=1πtPππ=t1,2,=π2tPtππ=tππ=312Quah19931996Jones19971998200511,π=∑0iπ∀≥2[]0,yN12,,,Nsss1iπ∃1ii=1iMππ++π++=is+1,jjisπππ+++=i≠≠≠0π∀yN22M122222Mtπ1241949-200290902004GDPGDPGDP1949-2002502000200120022003501990GDP1949-1998GDPGDP1952-19951996-20021Kernel11()()inxytnhhifxk−==∑3hA1/50.9N−=AN()k⋅y3Kernel1949-19981985y2503yxyminmaminy(4)/200,0,1,250jyhyyhjj=−+−+=GDPGDP20032005KernelGDPy1990GDP531949-20021949-1985Twin-PeaksConvergenceQuah19961985-2002GDP0.00E+005.00E-051.00E-041.50E-042.00E-042.50E-04-10003000700011000150005778850.00E+001.00E-042.00E-043.00E-044.00E-045.00E-046.00E-047.00E-048.00E-049.00E-04-10003000700011000150009094970.00E+001.00E-042.00E-043.00E-044.00E-045.00E-046.00E-04050001000090962002KernelGDPKernel31949-200211990-2002GDP[]0,y5[]0,0.2y(]0.2,0.4yy(]0.4,0.6yy(]0.6,0.8yy(]0.8,yy2568214*121Quah1993BootstrapA1A21A1Bootstrap10137maxy214214Bootstrap214Bootstrap5005006111990-20021234510.858***0.021***0.0000.0000.00020.142***0.838***0.045***0.0090.00030.0000.139***0.798***0.060***0.00840.0000.0000.152***0.655***0.048**50.0000.0010.0050.276***0.944***10*****5%1%211990-20024419901990kkMππ+′′=1,2,,12k=00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.81990199319961999200220052008201120142017202020232026202920322035203820412044204720502053205620592062206520682071207420772080123451234541990-200251991-20021.5934341341991-20022002750011()ijPxx20022002kkMππ+′′=k3432002200520102020203020402050207810.1640.1080.0690.0320.0180.0110.0080.0060.00620.3120.2660.2000.1170.0770.0570.0480.0410.04030.2510.2670.2320.1700.1340.1150.1060.0990.09840.1140.1390.1490.1490.1460.1440.1430.1420.14250.1590.2200.3500.5310.6260.6720.6950.7120.7143485%GDP1200216.4%1200510.8%20203.2%0.8%0.6%1121200231.2%20102020504.84923200225.19.8414200215.920103570701GDP5Jones19971998251978-199800.00010.00020.00030.00040.00050.00060.00070.0008010002000300040005000GDPKernelLY1978LY1985LY1990LY1995LY199820042005Kernel1978-19981978-19989051978-20022142140.6×≈1Lucas1988Lucas19882002Lucas820042161989-200033199080%GDP85%GDPJones19971998342002167031990-2002200021990-200220002000-20021990-19991990-200241990-19991234510.8750.0190.0000.0000.00020.1250.8500.0560.0160.00030.0000.1300.7860.0330.01640.0000.0000.1530.7050.03150.0000.0000.0050.2460.9531******10%5%1%1990-19991990-200241990-19991926214*94111990-19990.017014500Bootstrap1990-200020032000-20021990-19991990-2002Lucas2002Lucas1990-200292141949-197870%Lucas198820021990-2002AA1Bootstrap1234510.8570.0210.0000.0000.00020.1430.8380.0440.0090.00030.0000.1390.7980.0600.00840.0000.0000.1520.6540.05050.0000.0010.0050.2770.942A2Bootstrap1234510.01110.00460.00000.00000.000020.01110.00940.01070.00910.000030.00000.00940.01770.02200.008140.00000.00000.01580.03920.019150.00000.00110.00390.03750.0209B214101.20022.2000103.2002200274.199865.200336.2005China'sEconomicGrowthData:1970-2002:1978-199983315.200316.AbramovitzM.,1986,“CatchingUp,ForgingAhead,andFallingBehind”,JournalofEconomicHistory,46,pp385-406.17.AzizJ.andC.Duenwald,2001,“China’sProvincialGrowthDynamics”,IMFWorkingPaper,01/3.18.Barro,R.andX.Sala-i-Martin,1992,“Convergence”,JournalofPoliticalEconomy,100,pp223-251.19.Baumol,W.,1986,”ProductivityGrowth,Convergence,andWelfare:WhattheLong-RunDataShow”,AmericanEconomicReview,76,pp1072-1085.20.Beadry,P.,F.Collard,andD.Green,2002:”DecomposingtheTwin-peaksintheWorldDistributionofOutput-Per-Worker”,“InequalityamongWorldCitizens:18