基于SD的经济综合型小城镇可持续发展预警系统研究

华中科技大学硕士学位论文基于SD的经济综合型小城镇可持续发展预警系统研究姓名：邱春申请学位级别：硕士专业：管理科学与工程指导教师：李斌20070530I1994-20051995-20052006-2008IIAbstractWiththeenergeticalpromotionoftheurbanizationofourcountry,theimportantlinksbuiltinthisurbandevelopmentframeworkintownarepaidcloseattentiontomoreandmorebypeopletoo.Butfacethecurrentsituationsofpopulationexpansion,resourceshortage,deteriorationoftheenvironment,howcarryonprewarningstateofsustainabledevelopmenttothese,alreadyseemveryimportantamongtheoverallsituationtobuildharmonioussociety.Thisthesishassummarizedthedomesticandinternationalscholar'sresearchresultsaboutsustainabledevelopmentoftownandsustainabledevelopmentprewarninginrecentyearsatfirst,intension,functioncharacteristicanddesignprincipleofanalyzingearlywarningsystemofsustainabledevelopmentoftown,constructtheindexsystemoftheearlywarningsystem.Thethesisregardsdevelopmentofthecomprehensivetownofeconomyastheresearchobject,usesystematicdynamicstoputforwardtheconceptofsustainabledevelopmentdegreeinthetownwithcoordinatingonedegreeofmethods,asthealertfeelingindexoftheearlywarningsystem.Passtosociety,economy,resource,eachcomprehensiveanalysisofthesubsystemofenvironmentoftown,collectrelevantindexesandcarryonresearch,hassetuptheearlywarningsystemofsustainabledevelopmentoftownfinally,soastoweighsustainabledegreeofdevelopmentoftown.Thesisasresearchobject,adoptthistownindexdatumfor1994-2005yearswithQiuGatownofNingbocity,carryonsustainableearlywarningsimulationtoQiuGatowndevelopmentfor1995-2005year,andearlywarningsystemmodelstructureexaminewiththesensitivityanalyzing,provethissystemfeasibilityandvalidityofmodel,analyzethedevelopmenttrendofQiuGatownforlessthan2006-2008yearbyartificialresult,throughpolicylaboratory,proposecorrespondingtownbuildpolicyrecommendationsofsustainabledevelopment.Therealexampleanalysisindicates,theearlywarningsystemofsustainabledevelopmentoftownestablishedonthebasisofthedynamicsmethodofthesystemcanIIIanalyzequantitativelythetowndevelopstherelationbetweeneverykeyelement,havereflectedthedevelopmentdegree,harmonyandconstantofthetownsynthetically;Andcanadjustthroughthestateofdevelopmenttothetownofpolicyexperiment,advancetowardsthesustainabledevelopingdirectionfinally.Keywords:SustainabledevelopmentEarlywarningsystemTownSystematicdynamicsmodelCoordinatedegree“√”111.11.1.1197820051936662173195221-11-117.9%42.99%200530%30[1]1-119782005/1978197919801981198219831984198519861987/217323612361267826782968318691401071811103/1988198919901991199219931994199519961997/11481118731208412455145391580416702169921777018316/19981999200020012002200320042005/1880019244203122031220301202261989219522300500010000150002000025000197519801985199019952000200520101-1302:[2][1]20006:200211:3[3](2002BA807B10)1.1.2:[2]:[3]4:123451.21.2.15[4]1.2.2[5]:123645671.31.3.1119871[6][7][8][9][10]2[11][12][13]73:(UNCSD)(PSR)(UNSTAT)GDP1[14]2[15][16][17][18]3[19][20]42880[21][22][23][24][25]:1234567:1[26]23[27]41.3.2earlywarning[28]20409earlywarningsystem501[28]2Jay.W.ForresterD.H.Meadows[29][29]3M.Slesser[30]419681005UNEPWMOWHOFAOIAEAUCNWWF[31][32]10:[33]ShepardSP[34]BP[35]AHPAGAAGA-CAHPAGA-CAHP[36]SWARM[37]:[38]111.41.4.1123420083200720085121-21-2131.4.21.4.31SystemDynamicSD21422.12.1.1[39][39]123451512345?2.1.2[38]116231742.1.312341852.2[39]1223194352.3212.3.120()1234567212.3.212-12-122232-11%%%%2GDPGDP%GDP%GDP%3%%%%4%%%%%232-1/%/%/%///1000//%//10000/GDPGDP%GDPGDP/GDPGDPGDP/%/GDP%GDP/GDP//%//%/%/%/GDP/GDP%/%/m3%/%/%/242.42.4.1SystemDynamicsSDSD[40]SD12342.4.2252-22-2263SD3.1SystemDynamicsSD1956JayW.Forrester[40]cyberneticsDYNAMOSD[41]1SD2SD3SD4SD5SD6SD[42][43]27[44]20Shannonm,C.EWiener,N[38]feedbackloop[40]28[45][46][47]3.2SD[48]SDSD1SDSD2SD3SD45296DYNAMO[49]43.33.3.11[50]22[51][52]3373301GDP2STEP3RAMPRAMPABRABR4vensimEXCEL3.3.24403113-1+-++++++++++-+++-3-12GDPGDPGDPGDP3-232GDPGDPGDPGDP++++++++++++3-233-3+++-+++--+-3-33343-4--++++-----3-4345GDPGDPGDP+++++++++++++++++++++--+++------++-+++--+++----++--+++++++--++3-5++-+35GDPGDPGDP3-6363-59991+→−→+→+→2GDP+→+→+→+→GDP3+→+→GDP+→GDP+→GDPGDP4−→+→5−→−→−→6−→−→−→377+→+→+→−→+→8+→+→+→+→9+→+→+→+→3.43.4.11123821233.4.2Ventana.Vensim.PLE.v5.4B.Final1WindowsDos2345EXCEL3.4.312Ventana.Vensim.PLE.v5.4B.Final33943.53.5.112AHPiω141=∑=iiω33-1()min'()maxminiiiiiSDkSDSDkSDSD−=−3-140iSDimaxiSDiminiSDi'()iSDki3-22''(1())''iijjijiijjSDSDCDSDSDωωωω−=−+ji≠3-2ijCDji,'iSDiiωi141=∑=iiω1=ijCDji,ijCDji,4(3-3)CD6------6ijCD1242111[1()]nnjkjkjkjCDCDCDCDCDi−==+=−−∑∑3-3in4,6,1injkn==≤≤≤CDjCD3.5.2114122:1(0,]W12(,]WW2(,1]W12,WW1WCDS=−3-42WCD=3-511niiCDCDn==∑211()1niiSCDCDn==−−∑10≤≤CD5.0CD4241993GDP4.14.1.115424.23.393.81612120GDP1120290019.757.922.420037.6%66.2%26.9%1993200624.918.63.182.5185.643179.716.115.5151020%20051274302850019933264112122000SD4.1.211994200819931994199444(2002BA807B10)1994200519942008152008200620072008215424.23.394.151612132020022002435200352215203200352611520036131524379571905432020032003454.2(2002BA807B10)34.2.11993145%90%100%22005GDP22GDP5.932002GDP25%200025%20053.5620052